Ford Will Need Help, Too

, Ford Motor Chief Executive Alan Mulally sat shoulder-to-shoulder with the bosses of General Motors and Chrysler like a line of delinquent schoolboys.

But now that the Bush administration has agreed to lend GM and Chrysler $17.4 billion to stave off bankruptcy, Mulally is running as fast as he can from those other guys. "We're in a different place," says Mulally, whose company had $19 billion in cash on Sept. 30 and isn't seeking an immediate cash infusion.

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Don't be so sure. Ford, which lost $8.7 billion through September, may yet need taxpayer money. It is burning more than $2 billion a month and has asked for a $9 billion line of credit as a safety net in case industry conditions worsen. And it's looking more and more like Ford will need it.

Ford's financial projections are based on a rosier industry sales forecast--12.5 million vehicles (including heavy trucks) in 2009 and 14.5 million in 2010--than most industry experts predict. JD Power & Associates is forecasting 11.4 million light-vehicle sales in 2009 and 13.6 million for 2010.

IHS Global Insight is even more pessimistic. It now forecasts sales of 10 million to 10.5 million light vehicles for 2009, and 12.5 million units for 2010. GM's best case scenario is 12 million units in 2009 and 14 million in 2010, though its business plan is based on more conservative estimates. Last year, the industry sold 16.1 million light vehicles.

If Ford's assumptions prove too optimistic--as is likely--it too will be approaching Uncle Sam for help. "All automakers, including Ford, are going to need government money," says IHS Global Insight analyst Rebecca Lindland.

Self-interest required Mulally to stand up for his weaker competitors. A collapse of one or both would hurt suppliers and could potentially bring down Ford as well. But in the meantime, Ford is shrewdly portraying itself as the healthiest U.S. carmaker and quietly stealing market share from its crosstown rivals. Ford gained 1.4 points of market share in November, while GM lost 1.6 points and Chrysler lost 2.3 points.\