'December'에 해당되는 글 3건

  1. 2009.01.08 ADP Report Reflects Dark December by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.12.06 Mutual Funds: Saner Markets Ahead by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.12.02 Wall Street Gets December Chill by CEOinIRVINE

The payroll processor reported 693,000 jobs lost in the U.S. private sector during the month, 223,000 more than forecast.

Stock futures slid after December’s worse than expected ADP jobs report had investors worrying that Friday’s U.S. official employment snapshot will be equally dreadful.

The U.S. economy shed a much higher than expected 693,000 nonfarm jobs in December, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. Economists had forecast a loss of 470,000. This report serves as an important prelude to the Labor Department’s monthly jobless report, though the two are not always aligned.

The weak economic data boosted demand for safe-haven government-issued securities, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 2.48%, from 2.51% late Thursday, while the shorter two-year note's yield increased to 0.82%, from 0.80%, suggesting that investors are looking for longer-term shelter from the macroeconomic storm.

Small and medium-sized firms posted the lion’s share of jobs losses, reportedly laying off 280,000 and 321,000 employees, respectively, during the period. ADP said this indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.

News of continued weakness in the U.S. labor market comes amid other economic headwinds including falling home prices, curbed consumer spending, rising foreclosures and major declines in assets on Wall Street's balance sheets and Main Street's 401(k)s.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes released Tuesday indicated that the central bank's outlook was gloomy when it made an unprecedented move in cutting its benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 0.0% to 0.25% on December 16. However, most members of the policy-setting committee expect economic conditions slowly to improve beginning in the second half of 2009, even as GDP remains negative through the year and unemployment significantly increases into 2010. (See "Fed Negative On 2009; Street Resilient.")

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index was something of a bright spot Tuesday, showing that contraction in the services sector slowed in December, but the National Association of Retailers said pending home sales fell again in November, and the Commerce Department recorded a 4.6% drop in factory orders in November, the fourth straight monthly decline. (See "Investors Look For Dawn In Dark U.S. Economy.")

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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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In the December issue of Dan Wiener's newsletter, "The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors," Wiener interviews James Barrow, lead manager for $31 billion Vanguard Windsor II, and learns that the venerated value manager believes that hedge fund liquidations should cease by the end of the year, taking a good deal of volatility and downward pressure out of the markets.

Barrow told Wiener that: "All of that money the banks loaned the hedge funds is getting called in. They are selling these guys out. Not only are these guys getting redeemed by their investors, they're getting redeemed by their lenders. I don't know how long this has to go on--it'll obviously be over by the end of the year, but it could be pretty bloody between now and then."

This served as the topic of this week's mutual fund discussion between Dan Wiener, Adam Bold of The Mutual Fund Store and Richard Gates of TFS Capital. The consensus was that 2009 will bring smoother markets and it's time for investors to prepare for a market, if not an economic recovery.

The Forbes.com mutual fund panelists are:

Daniel P. Wiener, editor of Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors and CEO of Adviser Investments.

Adam Bold, founder and chief investment officer of the Mutual Fund Store.

Richard Gates, portfolio manager for TFS Capital.

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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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The glow of a strong holiday week faded quickly Monday morning, as stocks crumbled on a glum manufacturing report and expectations that the enthusiastic open to the holiday shopping season will be short-lived. Even worse, the U.S. has been in a recession for nearly a year, according to the non-profit, non-partisan research organization in charge of formally declaring such a cycle.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said the U.S. began a recession in December 2007, when an expansion that began in November 2001 and lasted 73 months hit its peak. The bureau cited the unyielding decline in payroll employment since that month as a key factor in its formal determination of a recession.

According to the Institute for Supply Management, manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November, while its prices index showed its lowest reading since 1949. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said construction spending was down 1.2% in October, and fell 5.7% in the first 10 months of 2008.

The gloomy economic figures were compounded by fading optimism for the retail sector. A robust Black Friday provoked enthusiasm for the holiday season, but sales are not expected to continue at the brisk pace of the day after Thanksgiving, according to a report from the National Retail Federation. Exchange-traded funds that include retailers among their holdings were sharply lower as the broader market declined. The SPDR S&P Retail (nyse: XRT - news - people ) was down $1.14, or 6.2%, to $17.29; while the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (nyse: XLY - news - people ) dropped $1.11, or 5.4%, to $19.38

Across Wall Street, stocks were just above their worst levels of the session at midday. All 30 Dow components were in the red, and the index lost 380 points, or 4.3%, to 8,449. The S&P 500-stock index was down 46 points, or 5.1%, to 850, and the Nasdaq dropped 81 points, or 5.3%, to 1,455. (See "December Brings A Dip For U.S. Stocks.")

Mentor (nyse: MNT - news - people ) was the big winner among the day's few gains, after Johnson & Johnson (nyse: JNJ - news - people ) agreed to acquire the maker of breast implants and other aesthetic medical products for $31.00 a share, or $1.1 billion, in cash. The bid represented a 1.3% premium with Mentor up $14.44, or 89.4%, to $30.59 Monday. Johnson & Johnson was down $1.77, or 3.0%, to $56.81.

The morning's weak economic data and the declaration of a recession had stock prices reeling. With equities on the decline, investors were pouring back into the perceived safety of fixed-income investments, pushing down yields on Treasury securities. The benchmark 10-year note was returning 2.82%, down from 2.96% Friday, and the two-year note yield fell to 0.92%, from 1.04%.


Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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