Economic output in the United States shrank more than feared during the last quarter of 2008, raising new questions on the country's path to recovery.

On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department revised its fourth-quarter gross domestic product reading downward, to a 6.2% drop. At the end of January, the government had initially reported a GDP contraction of 3.8%, but that figure was less severe than the 5.4% annualized contraction Wall Street had been predicting for the last three months of the year. (See "U.S. GDP: Less Ugly Than Feared.")

"It was a really lousy report, but we expected that," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard and Poor's, "and it can be added to all the other really lousy reports we've had this week." (See "U.S.: Jobless Up, Factory Orders Down, Nobody's Home.")

Most of the revision came from inventories. "There was also a fairly significant downward revision in trade, particularly exports," Wyss said.

Friday's reading was the worst since the 6.4% drop in recorded the first quarter of 1982, when the country was suffering a severe recession. This time around, the U.S. economy has been sucked into a housing, credit and financial conflagration that led to widespread job losses and a massive pullback in spending. (See "Rebuilding Global Markets.")

The government also reported that personal consumption fell by 4.3%, which was also below the 3.7% drop anticipated by Wall Street.

Friday's report added insult to injury for the U.S. markets, which also had to had to also grapple with the news of Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) reaching a deal with the U.S. government, in which the Treasury would convert up to $25.0 billion in Citigroup preferred shares to common. (See "Citi Nears Rescue From Uncle Sam.")

U.S. stocks recovered from deep losses in late-morning trading, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.02%, from 2.98% Thursday

Deal announced on emergency stimulus plan

With job losses soaring nationwide, Senate Democrats reached agreement with a small group of Republicans Friday night on an economic stimulus measure at the heart of President Barack Obama's plan for combatting the worst recession in decades.

"The American people want us to work together. They don't want to see us dividing along partisan lines on the most serious crisis confronting our country," said Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, one of three Republican moderates who broke ranks and pledged their votes for the bill.

Democratic leaders expressed confidence that the concessions they had made to Republicans and moderate Democrats to trim the measure had cleared the way for its passage. No final vote was expected before Monday.

Officials put the cost of the bill at $827 billion, including Obama's signature tax cut of up to $1,000 for working couples, even if they earn too little to pay income taxes. Also included are breaks for homebuyers and people buying new cars. Much of the new spending would be for victims of the recession, in the form of unemployment compensation, health care and food stamps.

Republican critics complained that whatever the cost, billions were ticketed for programs that would not create jobs.

In a key reduction from the bill that reached the Senate floor earlier in the week, $40 billion would be cut from a "fiscal stabilization fund" for state governments' education costs, though $14 billion to boost the maximum for college Pell Grants by $400 to $5,250 would be preserved, as would aid to local school districts for the No Child Left Behind law and special education.

A plan to help the unemployed purchase health insurance would be reduced to a 50 percent subsidy instead of two-thirds.

Stocks fell sharply Wednesday, as a handful of bleak profit outlooks and more evidence of escalating unemployment served as stark reminders that the economy remains in rough shape. The Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 180 points.

Underscoring investors' growing fears that 2009 is shaping up to be a difficult year for many sectors, Time Warner and Intel on Wednesday issued disappointing guidance.

Time Warner Inc. said it expects to record a fourth-quarter $25 billion impairment charge for its cable, publishing and AOL units that will lead to an operating loss for the period and a loss for the full year. It had expected a profit between $1.04 and $1.07 per share for the year.

Meanwhile, computer chip maker Intel Corp. said it expects fourth-quarter revenue to drop 23 percent, below prior estimates, due to weak demand and inventory reductions by its computer maker customers.

Time Warner shares shed 97 cents, or 8.8 percent, to $10.01. Intel shares plunged nearly 6 percent, or 88 cents to $14.49.

Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.'s decision to slash jobs further jolted investors.

Alcoa said late Tuesday it is reducing its global work force by about 13,500, or 13 percent, by the end of the year and lowering total output by more than 18 percent annually. Shares of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa tumbled 70 cents, or 5.8 percent, to $11.42.

The announcement comes ahead of the Labor Department's report Friday on the job market - a closely watched barometer of the economy's health. The market got a disappointing harbinger Wednesday in the form of the ADP National Employment Report, an unofficial gauge that the market has been increasingly monitoring as U.S. job losses mount. The report said private sector employment fell by 693,000 in December, worse than expected.

When people lose their jobs, they tend to spend less and fall behind on their debt payments. Investors fear that further declines in consumer spending will prolong the recession.

"People are concerned with the employment report coming out on Friday," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York. "The market has shrugged off some bad news recently, and it's starting to get to the point where it can't do that anymore."

The Dow has rallied about 20 percent since its multiyear lows in late November 2008, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index has surged nearly 25 percent.

"We've had a big move," Fullman said. "What we're looking at now is just people getting a little cautious here."

In late morning trading, the Dow dropped 186.46, or 2.07 percent, to 8,828.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 21.57, or 2.31 percent, to 913.13, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 41.70, or 2.52 percent, to 1,610.68.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 14.98, or 2.91 percent, to 499.73.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 6 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 297.50 million shares.

On Tuesday, Wall Street overcame gloomy economic readings to finish with a moderate advance. The market's economic worries had been calmed a bit in recent days by President-elect Barack Obama's proposal to slash taxes and help businesses. The stimulus package could cost as much as $775 billion, though, and Obama said Tuesday the nation could face trillion-dollar deficits "for years to come."

Bond prices rose on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.46 percent from 2.47 percent late Tuesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, edged lower to 0.11 percent from 0.14 percent.

The Treasury plans to auction a record $30 billion in three-year notes on Wednesday.

The dollar fell against other major currencies. Gold prices also fell.

Crude oil prices slipped $2.46 to $46.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.74 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 3.37 percent. In afternoon trading in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.31 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.37 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.14 percent.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top executives nearly $1.6 billion in salaries, bonuses, and other benefits last year, an Associated Press analysis reveals.

The rewards came even at banks where poor results last year foretold the economic crisis that sent them to Washington for a government rescue. Some trimmed their executive compensation due to lagging bank performance, but still forked over multimillion-dollar executive pay packages.

Benefits included cash bonuses, stock options, personal use of company jets and chauffeurs, home security, country club memberships and professional money management, the AP review of federal securities documents found.

The total amount given to nearly 600 executives would cover bailout costs for many of the 116 banks that have so far accepted tax dollars to boost their bottom lines.

Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee and a long-standing critic of executive largesse, said the bonuses tallied by the AP review amount to a bribe "to get them to do the jobs for which they are well paid in the first place.

"Most of us sign on to do jobs and we do them best we can," said Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat. "We're told that some of the most highly paid people in executive positions are different. They need extra money to be motivated!"

The AP compiled total compensation based on annual reports that the banks file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The 116 banks have so far received $188 billion in taxpayer help. Among the findings:

Wall Street proceeded cautiously Thursday, with stocks moving in a narrow range as investors weighed corporate earnings reports that signaled further economic deterioration, but drew some comfort from a better-than-expected reading on new jobless claims.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell by more than economists anticipated to 554,000 last week. The claims remain near last week's 26-year high, and the four-week moving average for claims is up, but investors had been bracing for a gloomier reading.

However, a batch of mixed corporate earnings reports on Thursday kept investors on edge.

FedEx Corp. reported a 3 percent rise in quarterly earnings, but announced further cost cuts as demand continues to wane. Ingersoll-Rand Co. cut its fourth quarter earnings forecast by more than half, and motor home maker Winnebago Industries Inc. swung to a loss.

But Discover Financial Services swung to a profit and homebuilder Lennar Corp.'s quarterly loss was smaller than last year's.

Meanwhile, a private research group's measure of the economy's health fell again in November and its six-month rate of decline hit the worst level since 1991.

That reinforced perceptions that the economy's troubles are far from over. The market remains unsure how steep and prolonged the recession will be.

But investors seemed pleased that President-elect Barack Obama's aides were assembling a two-year stimulus plan that could cost $850 billion. The package would reportedly include new jobs, middle-class tax relief and expanded aid for the poor and the unemployed.

A stimulus for U.S. consumers became an especially high priority earlier this month, when the Labor Department reported that U.S. employers slashed more than half a million jobs in November.

Still, amid very light trading, stocks struggled to take a definitive direction.

"The economic data today was not as bad, but it wasn't great," said Jon Biele, head of capital markets at Cowen & Co. "You might see a little window dressing going on into year end, but the market is just churning."

In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 38.71, or 0.44 percent, to 8,785.63. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 1.58, or 0.17 percent, to 906.00, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 4.39, or 0.28, to 1,583.70.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 3.51, or 0.72 percent, to 490.10.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to just 482.74 million shares. Volume will likely remain light for the remainder of the year as investors break for the holidays.

On Wednesday, the Dow fell nearly 100 points as enthusiasm over the Federal Reserve's historic rate cut Tuesday dampened on news of a larger-than-expected loss at Morgan Stanley and layoffs at Cooper Tire and Rubber Co. and Newell Rubbermaid Inc.

In recent weeks, the market has moved away from the wild 300-point swings of September, October and early November, an encouraging sign for many analysts who believe Wall Street is beginning to show some stability.

Since the S&P 500 and the Dow hit multiyear lows on Nov. 20, the Dow has risen 16.8 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 20.2 percent. Both indexes are still down more than 30 percent for the year.

"People in general are less pessimistic," said Bernie McGinn, chief executive of Alexandria, Va.-based McGinn Investment Management. "They are still not optimistic, but they are less pessimistic, and I think the market reflects that."

McGinn also attributed some of the recent calm to the typical end-of-year slowdown - which is even more pronounced this year in comparison with the unprecedented turmoil of the fall.

"I think that people are getting into the holiday season earlier this year," he said. "People have been through the ringer this year and they just want the year to be over."

Biele echoed that sentiment, saying that investors are simply "exhausted."

"You can't really glean anything in this market right now," he said. "Everybody is still very much in cash. ... Nobody is going to make any bets right now."

On Thursday, Obama named three veteran regulators to round out his economic team and vowed to overhaul regulatory rules to prevent a repeat of the financial and economic turmoil the country is currently suffering.

If confirmed by the Senate, Mary Schapiro would take over the Securities and Exchange Commission. Schapiro, who currently heads a nongovernment regulatory group for securities firms, is also a former head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and former member of the SEC.

The SEC faces mounting criticism for its failure to protect investors and detect trouble on Wall Street. Its latest blemish comes from the fraud investigation of prominent money manager Bernard L. Madoff, who is accused of running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is seriously considering "orderly" bankruptcy as a way of dealing with the desperately ailing U.S. auto industry.

The White House is expected to soon unveil ways to provide emergency aid to the automakers, which have said they could run out of cash within weeks without government help.

The fate of Detroit's three biggest automakers was put in serious jeopardy last week after the Senate failed to pass a $14 billion bailout for Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. Ford Motor Co. has said in the past that it does not need government money to survive.

GM shares dropped 59 cents, or 13 percent, to $3.78. Ford shares tumbled 27 cents, or 8.6 percent, to $2.87. Chrysler is not publicly traded.

Energy stocks were also big decliners Thursday as the price of oil plunged below $38 a barrel. BP PLC dropped $1.91, or 3.9 percent, to $47.68, while Chevron Corp. fell $1.68, or 2.2 percent, to $75.13.

Discover's earnings report sent shares soaring 14 percent, or $1.22 to $9.80. Other credit card companies also rose. MasterCard Inc. added 45 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $10.46, while Capital One Financial Corp. rose 37 cents to $29.84.

Long-term Treasury prices soared, sending yields down to new record lows. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.12 percent from 2.19 percent late Wednesday. The yield on the popular three-month T-bill - whose yield has at times gone negative due to frenzied buying - was at 0.01 percent, unchanged from late Wednesday.

The strong surge in buying has been stoked by the Fed's decision Tuesday to lower its federal funds rate target to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, and express an interest in buying long-term government debt.

The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound, but fell against the Japanese yen. Gold prices declined.

Light, sweet crude fell $1.11 to $38.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.64 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.24 percent. In afternoon trading in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.15 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 1.02 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.24 percent.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

Fighting cybercrime in an economic downturn

Editor's note: This is part of a series of stories about the recession's effect on the tech industry.

Last month, McAfee cybercrime strategist Pamela Warren sat down with a senior executive at a Sydney bank to discuss the risks to the corporate network from workers using social networking.

After going over the trade-offs associated with allowing insiders to use social networks at work, his team confirmed that they would use data leak prevention technology to monitor the network traffic--balancing the desire to benefit from such new technologies while ensuring company secrets remain protected.

Warren had a similar meeting with a U.S. government agency last week to discuss strategies for dealing with public employees using Web apps at work and mobile devices, which can introduce viruses and other security problems into a corporate network. And she's been preparing for the launch early next year of McAfee's Cybercrime Response Unit, a site where consumers can go when they think they've been victimized by online scams.

She's sharpening her focus on protecting Internet users because malware attacks are up now that economic times are tough. Online scammers have been going into overdrive with phishing and other online schemes aimed at people confused about the banking consolidation or who are desperate because of a layoff or foreclosure. In fact, there are direct correlations between targeted cyberattacks on consumers and the stock market decline over the past few months.

"It's a ripe economy to take advantage of people," she said.

Consumers are being scammed in a variety of ways. People are receiving phishing e-mails asking them to provide their bank account information so as to avoid having their bank account closed in a merger. They provide their bank information and their account balance is plundered.

People also are getting e-mails and seeing ads on the Web for work-from-home "jobs" where all they have to do to become an "international sales rep" is open a bank account to receive money in and then wire the money to some international third party. In reality, the transaction is nothing more than a money-laundering move, known as a "cyber mule operation," to transfer money to another country and hide the trail in an illegal deal. Typically, the transaction is a payment for some kind of illegal activity such as the exchange of lists of credit card information or personal data that can be used for identity fraud. (McAfee published a report about the rise in cybercrime earlier this week.)

I recently spent a few days in Moscow meeting with a variety of economic and financial officials and analysts, both in the public and private sector.

Until July of this year, Russia was rosy: It was growing at an annual rate close to 8%; oil prices were peaking at $140 a barrel; the country was running a large fiscal and current account surplus; it had a war chest of $600 billion-plus of foreign reserves; and its stock market, bond markets and currency values were strong. Policy makers were thinking of turning the ruble into a major reserve currency, at least for the CIS bloc.

This economic and financial success led Russia to flex its geopolitical muscle, challenging the U.S. on a number of political and military issues and using its energy power as an instrument of foreign policy in its relations with the Eurozone and its former Soviet neighbors. The peak of this resurgence of the Russian bear came during the August war with Georgia, when Russia flaunted its military power as the U.S. looked impotent in its inability to defend an ally.

But what a difference a short time makes. Six months later, Russia is in deep economic and financial trouble.

The S&P has just announced that it has lowered Russia's foreign-currency credit rating by one notch from BBB+ to BBB. In less than six months, oil prices have fallen to under $50 a barrel (from the $140-plus peak of July). The stock market has fallen by over 60%, and on some days it has been shut down to prevent a free-fall. The current account surplus has turned into a near deficit and a sure deficit by 2009. The country has experienced a capital flight of over $100 billion and has lost about $150 billion of foreign reserves (now down to about a $450 billion level). It is facing massive external debt-financing problems as its banks financed their lending with foreign currency borrowings and its corporate firms financed massive expansion with foreign currency debt. It is now desperately trying to prevent a sharp depreciation of its currency by aggressive foreign exchange intervention. It may face a large fiscal deficit (2% of GDP) next year, and its GDP growth rate is sharply slowing down, leading the World Bank to predict a rate of only 3% in 2009--with leading local analysts predicting an actual recession (negative growth of as much as -2%) in 2009. (See the recent analysis by RGE's Rachel Ziemba for more on the risks of a hard landing in Russia.)

Given this sudden change in Russian fortunes, there are several key policy issues that the authorities need to deal with. Of course, given the external shocks (terms of trade worsening and a sudden stop of capital and credit), it was important to use the buffer of foreign reserves to avoid a bank run by providing liquidity and capital to banks--and by providing a fiscal stimulus to a country that is sharply slowing down.

But the key unresolved policy issue is what to do with the exchange rate. Until recently, Russia was on an effective basket peg (with 55% for the dollar and a 45% weight for the euro). But with oil prices now down over 60% from the peak of the summer, and with incipient current account and fiscal deficits and a likely recession in 2009, the currency is obviously overvalued. A reasonable estimate of the needed exchange-rate depreciation--with oil at about $50 a barrel in 2009--is 25%. But until recently, the authorities resisted the needed depreciation through aggressive foreign exchange intervention.

When the Super Bowl festivities roll into Tampa late next month, the party blitz and corporate spending that surround the big day may take a hit because of the economic crisis.

Sponsors have been slower to commit. Companies are scaling back plans, carefully watching expenses, bringing fewer guests and pushing back travel bookings. The private party circuit will be missing a few staple destinations, including the annual Sports Illustrated fete.

"The decision making process is just a little slower," Reid Sigmon, executive director of the host committee, said of the efforts to attract sponsors. The committee has reached about 80 percent of its sponsorship goal - a level it has been stuck at since October.

"A lot of companies are kicking the tire, so to speak," he said.

Even so, the Feb. 1 game will sell out. And, to be sure, there will still be plenty of star-studded events: Maxim, ESPN The Magazine, and Penthouse all said they have parties in the works. The Lingerie Bowl, a televised alternative halftime event featuring semi-dressed models, will hold three games and a red-carpet affair. Beer giant Anheuser-Busch (nyse: BUD - news - people ) is sponsoring concerts and other events.

And there will be a bevy of official NFL activities, including the weeklong NFL Experience, which features interactive games and autograph sessions.

The host committee is hoping for 100,000 visitors, the same as in 2001 when Tampa last had the game, but NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said the number may drop.

Wall Street had a strong start to the week, after President-elect Barack Obama outlined his economic stimulus plans and indications that Congress will help Detroit's automakers stave off bankruptcy.

Over the weekend, Obama outlined plans to invest in infrastructure, energy and construction projects to spur the U.S. economy out of its year-long recession and create jobs. The proposals came after the Labor Department said the economy shed 533,000 jobs in November.

The major averages started the day higher, as the Dow Jones industrial average gained 269 points, or 3.1%, to 8,904, shortly into the session. The Standard & Poor's 500 was up 31 points, or 3.5%, to 907, while the Nasdaq added 43 points, or 2.9%, to 1,553.

According to TradeTheNews.com, Democrats in Congress and the Bush administration have agreed to the framework of a deal that provide loans to General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) and Chrysler, but not nearly the $34.0 billion the companies requested. Rather, the package is believed to be worth around $15.0 billion, and would help GM and Chrysler hold off bankruptcy until at least March, but may require management change. Shares of GM climbed 62 cents, or 15.2%, to $4.70 early Monday, while Ford gained 31 cents, or 11.4%, to $3.03. (See "Promises Of Rescue Come With Demands For Change.")

Still, the news out of corporate America was not all good over the weekend and Monday morning. More job cuts are on the way, from companies like 3M (nyse: MMM - news - people ) and Dow Chemical (nyse: DOW - news - people ).

3M announced over the weekend that it would cut 1,800 jobs in the fourth quarter, and on Monday morning the diversified company cut its 2008 earnings guidance to reflect the global economic slowdown. Shares of the Dow component were up 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.07, during the broad rally early Monday.

Dow Chemical said it will lay off 5,000 workers and close 20 plants in "high-cost" locations as part of its accelerated restructuring plans. The news sent Dow shares up $1.03, or 5.4%, to $20.03.

The outlook is also uncertain for MetLife, after the insurance company trimmed its fourth-quarter earnings guidance and said it could report a loss for the period. MetLife (nyse: MET - news - people ) still managed a $1.19, or 3.9%, gain, to $31.95.

In Pictures: What's Your Economic Outlook?

You know the economic outlook for much of the country is rough, with unemployment rising, home prices falling, credit short and manufacturing, retail and services all in decline. Bad news indeed. But--surprise--there are bright spots across the country.

According to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on regional economies, released Wednesday, areas around Boston, St. Louis, Chicago and San Francisco have seen increased demand in aerospace manufacturing. St. Louis, Dallas and San Francisco saw gains in food processing. Most of the Midwest has seen agriculture hold up well, and in Nebraska and Kansas, farmland prices continue to rise.

The Great Plains and East Coast (particularly around the mid-Atlantic) have seen relatively stronger demand for lower- and middle-priced "starter homes." The troubles of New York banks have actually led to increased volumes for banks in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as people turn from the national chains to regional firms.

Eight times a year, the Fed collects surveys from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, representing every region of the country. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its first look at unemployment in the country's metro areas for the month of October. Together, these two reports were the first deep look into how parts of the country are doing in the wake of this summer's banking implosion.

Though the regions are named after the city in which the Federal Reserve bank is located, they represent broader regions. Because the system was established nearly a century ago, the regions are not equally sized. The Boston Fed's domain is only the Northeast, whereas the San Francisco Federal Reserve covers the entire West Coast. But activity reported by the Fed's different districts represents the activity of entire regions, not just the central cities. (See a map of the Federal Reserve districts.)

The mood of the Fed's report is, on the whole, grim. In the dry parlance of the Fed report, New York's economy "deteriorated substantially"--worse than San Francisco's "weakened decidedly." Both regions would have been happy with the Fed's appraisal of Philadelphia's economy which "remained generally weak" or Boston's, which merely "slowed further."