For Detroit, Lessons From The TARP

General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler's desperate pleas for government aid were heard. Over the weekend, legislation to provide the big three with short-term loans to get them through the new year is being drafted, following an agreement between Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and President George Bush on how to fund the rescue.

Pelosi on Friday agreed to go the White House route and use loans from the Department of Energy originally intended to insure the companies would develop green cars in the future, rather than tap Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program funds.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody's Economy.com told the Senate that an automaker's bankruptcy would be "cataclysmic." With unemployment at 6.7%, gross domestic product in a tailspin and the banking sector wobbling like a newborn doe, the White House and Congress remain understandably averse to cataclysms.

"We must first prevent additional job loss from occurring. We cannot let the auto industry collapse, which would be catastrophic to our economy," said a Friday statement from Sen. Chris Dodd, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, signaling his support.

President Bush's remarks Friday were much the same: "It is important that Congress act next week on this plan. And it's important to make sure that taxpayers' money be paid back if any is given to the companies."

It's a much better outcome for the automakers than after their first trip to Capitol Hill, where they flew in on private jets, presented vague plans and were sent home empty-handed. But before Detroit starts cheering, they'd be smart to recall a similar situation a couple months ago. If the $700 billion bailout of the financial system holds any lesson it's this: The car companies are not out of the woods yet.

Paulson's request for $700 billion two and a half months ago is fresh in the minds of those on Capital Hill. Deny him the money, he said, and the economy would implode. Any future economic problems (which by September were inevitable) could be blamed on the inaction of Congress. Despite the threat of apocalypse, they balked for two solid weeks as volleys of constituent disapproval filled the e-mail inboxes of Congress. At one point, the House's Web server crashed from the load. He ultimately got his money, but only after a political brawl unparalleled in recent memory.

America's automakers may be even less loved than America's bankers. All of this has the strong ring of deja vu, and just as rank and file Congressmen balked at bailing out Wall Street, embarrassing party leaders and forcing a dramatic showdown on the Hill, the deal for Detroit is far from done. The challenge is not writing the legislation this weekend. It's getting it passed next week. Are Pelosi and the Democrats up to the challenge? Detroit sure hopes so.