'economic'에 해당되는 글 25건

  1. 2008.11.23 Obama says drafting bold economic stimulus by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.11.16 Bush cites progress at world economic summit by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.11.12 The Law Of Unintended Economic Consequences by CEOinIRVINE
  4. 2008.11.12 Obama Asks bush to back auto-industry by CEOinIRVINE
  5. 2008.09.24 Dow Up in Morning Trading as Policymakers Testify on Bailout by CEOinIRVINE

USA-OBAMA/ (WRAPUP 1):WRAPUP 1-Obama says drafting bold economic stimulus

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* Obama warns swift action needed to avert deflation

* Obama says plan would save or create 2.5 million jobs

* Picks of Geithner, Clinton suggest centrist policy bent

By Caren Bohan and Jeff Mason

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said Saturday that he was crafting an aggressive two-year stimulus plan to revive the troubled economy, warning that swift action was needed to prevent a deep slump and a spiral of falling prices.

"If we don't act swiftly and boldly, most experts now believe that we could lose millions of jobs next year," the Democratic president-elect said in a weekly radio address.

Obama, who succeeds President George W. Bush on Jan. 20, said the economy could get worse before it gets better.

"We now risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further," he said.

Obama said the plan would aim to save or create 2.5 million jobs by January 2011 and would be "big enough to meet the challenges we face." Any additional jobs would offset what is expected to be a dismal employment picture in the near future.

A day after U.S. stock markets rallied on his reported choice of Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary, Obama gave a bleak assessment of the economy in his most detailed comments on the subject since winning the Nov. 4 election.

In another pivotal appointment, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton appeared all but certain to become Obama's secretary of state, bringing his one-time main Democratic rival into the fold of his new administration.

The likely appointments of Clinton and Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve and a former Treasury official in President Bill Clinton's administration, underscored a centrist bent to the personnel decisions being made by Obama, who had a liberal record as a U.S. senator from Illinois.

Still, as fears grow that the economy could be in for one of its most severe downturns in decades, Obama is signaling anything but a middle-of-road approach on economic stimulus.

He called in October for a $175 billion stimulus measure, but his radio speech suggested he was ready to push for a much larger package. He did not give a price-tag in the speech.

The two-year time frame for the stimulus further indicated a sizable proposal. Most such plans are aimed at covering a one-year period.

RISING UNEMPLOYMENT

The number of Americans joining the unemployment rolls surged to the highest in 16 years, up more than 540,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Government data also painted an increasingly dire picture of the housing market.

"The news this week has only reinforced the fact that we are facing an economic crisis of historic proportions," Obama said.

Democratic sources said Obama had chosen Geithner to take the helm at Treasury and help pull the United States out of an economic nosedive.

U.S. stocks, which had been sinking all week, surged more than 6 percent on the news that Geithner, 47, had been selected. U.S. Treasuries fell and the dollar surged.

Obama is expected to formally announce the pick of Geithner Monday, according to NBC.

Obama and his economic team have worked to lower expectations that he will be able to fix the economic challenges right away, a theme he reiterated in his address.

"There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it's likely to get worse before it gets better," Obama said.

Obama said he had directed his economic team to draft the stimulus proposal and predicted the Democratic-led Congress would quickly approve it for his signature.

"We'll be working out the details in the weeks ahead but it will be a two-year, nationwide effort to jump-start job creation in America and lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy," Obama said.

Congressional Democrats have promised to make a broad economic stimulus a top priority when they reconvene in January. The package is expected to include middle-class tax cuts and billions of dollars for public works projects, such as the construction of roads, brådges and mass transit.

Hobbled U.S. automakers are negotiating with lawmakers and the White House over a bailout package they say is urgently needed.

While supporting the idea of a cash infusion for the automakers, Obama has kept a low profile in that debate.

(Editing by Philip Barbara and Bill Trott)

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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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World leaders edged closer to an agreement Saturday that would flag risky investing and regulatory weak spots, with President George W. Bush welcoming the progress at an emergency economic summit.

Nearly two dozen foreign leaders got down to work at the largest gathering of its kind in nearly a decade. A chief goal was charting a map to avoid future financial meltdowns like the one now imperiling the global economy. Leaders also sought to find ways to revive the economy, which has pushed up unemployment and shrunk savings.


Under the glare of an intense political and public spotlight, the presidents and prime ministers needed to be careful not to let the talks become a blame game, which could further roil the fragile markets.

A thorny issue was whether all nations should pledge to enact government spending plans to stimulate their economies. It appeared likely the leaders would endorse the benefits of that approach, but stop short of a commitment for all participants to act at the same time.

To help prevent future crises, Bush and his counterparts prepared to endorse a plan for more openness in financial markets and an early warning system for problems such as the speculation frenzy that fed the U.S. housing bubble.

"I am pleased that we are discussing a way forward to make sure that such a crisis is unlikely to occur again," Bush said as discussed got under way. "Obviously, you know, this crisis has not ended. There's some progress being made, but there's still a lot more work to be done."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters that the leaders will achieve consensus on a plan "that includes almost 50 actions that have to be implemented by the end of March." She added, "The point is that all actors on the market, all products and all markets shall be really regulated and surveyed."




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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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Sir Isaac Newton's third law of motion states that "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." The incoming Obama administration should keep this natural law in mind when considering the endless stream of ideas and programs that policymakers, pundits and bureaucrats will be putting in front of it over the next few months.

The government has already dipped deep into its toolkit. The Federal Reserve has lent money to investment banks, financed mergers and acquisitions and backstopped the commercial paper market. The Treasury Department seized Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ), is guaranteeing money-market funds and then forced private banks to accept the taxpayer as a shareholder via purchases of preferred shares.

All of these policies will have consequences that have yet to fully materialize, as will any other policies that the government adopts. And some of these unintended consequences could harm the economy.

Take, for example, the extension of unemployment benefits enacted in June. Normally, jobless benefits are available for 26 weeks. The extension, which will last temporarily through early next year, added another 13 weeks. Following this, between June and October--in only four months--the unemployment rate has risen from 5.5% to 6.5%, a full percentage point.

What's odd about the jump in the jobless rate is that it has been accompanied by an unusual increase in the number of people who say they are looking for work. Normally, when the unemployment rate leaps upward we see a decline in the share of the population either working or looking for work (what economists call the participation rate). Not this time.

In order to receive unemployment benefits, a person must be looking for work, so the extension of benefits is artificially coaxing many people who would no longer be in the workforce at all to say they are still looking for work, just so they can continue to collect benefits. The unintended consequence is that the unemployment rate is boosted further and more quickly than normal in a recession, making it more likely that policymakers further extend benefits, escalating the deficit and pushing up future tax payments.

The aggressive Fed rate cuts in late 2007 and early 2008--well before the recent risk-aversion hysteria set in--also resulted in unintended consequences. Lower base rates for floating-rate loans have hurt community bank income streams. This has hurt some financial institutions instead of helping them. There are always two sides to the interest-rate coin. Someone pays and someone receives. For some reason, many only think of the borrower and not the lender.

Another example of unintended consequences is the new ability of the Fed to pay interest on bank reserves, a policy it has long wanted to implement to give it more accurate control over monetary policy. Regardless of how much sense this policy may make over the long term, it may be undermining the growth of bank lending right now. Excess reserves by deposit-taking banks typically hover at about $2 billion. In October, these excess reserves were at $268 billion. So with one hand the government is injecting capital into banks to boost lending, but with the other it is enticing banks to hold extra cash as reserves.

As policymakers mull concerns like a bailout of U.S. automakers, they need to be clear that no matter their goals, there will be ramifications across many economic and financial dimensions they cannot possibly anticipate.




Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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Members of Congress, including Reps. Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, right, met with auto executives last week in Washington.

Members of Congress, including Reps. Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, right, met with auto executives last week in Washington. (By Brendan Hoffman -- Getty Images)



President-elect Barack Obama yesterday urged President Bush to support immediate aid for struggling automakers and back a new stimulus package, even as congressional Democrats began drafting legislation to give the Detroit automakers quick access to $25 billion by adding them to the Treasury Department's $700 billion economic rescue program.


Bush, speaking privately to Obama during their first Oval Office meeting, repeated his administration's stand that he might support quick action on those bills if Democratic leaders drop their opposition to a Colombia trade agreement that Bush supports, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The discussions raised the stakes for a lame-duck session of Congress that could begin next week and came as fears about General Motors' financial condition yesterday pushed the company's stock price to its lowest level in about 60 years. Obama said last week that passage of the economic stimulus package and help for American car companies are his top priorities. The Bush administration has steadfastly pushed for trade deals before he leaves office.

Congress could consider the auto measure as soon as next week, when lawmakers are scheduled to return to Washington. Yesterday, in an urgent bipartisan appeal, all 15 House members and both senators from Michigan sent a letter asking the Bush administration to include the auto industry in the Treasury program on its own initiative or to work with Congress to modify the program.


"There's an urgent crisis. It's a national issue. If the administration won't act, we'll have to. But they should act," said Rep. Sander M. Levin (D-Mich.).

The entire auto industry is suffering these days, but GM has been particularly hard hit as sales have slowed and credit has tightened. Once the world's largest automaker, the company said yesterday that it was in danger of running out of cash next year. The company is taking a series of steps to conserve cash, including cutting production and laying off 5,500 more factory workers. Yet one closely followed Deutsche Bank analyst cut his forecast on GM's share price to zero, saying that even if GM manages to avert bankruptcy, "we believe that the company's future path is likely to be bankruptcy-like."

The gloomy assessment and others like it helped knock down GM's shares by nearly 23 percent, to $3.36.

So far, administration officials have resisted calls to include the Detroit automakers in the Treasury's bailout program, which was conceived to stabilize banks and other financial institutions reeling from the global credit crisis. Opening the program to the auto industry would expand the government's role in private enterprise far beyond the banking sector, and analysts warn that it could prompt a long line of companies from other industries to show up in Washington with their hands out.

Administration officials have pointed instead to $25 billion in low-interest loans recently approved by Congress as a source of quick help for the car companies. Yesterday, White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters that the White House would be open to legislation that removes bureaucratic roadblocks slowing the release of that money.

"Congress is going to come back into town next week," Perino said. "If it wants to do anything in addition for the automakers, we'll certainly listen to ideas they have on how to accelerate the loans to viable companies."

Democrats said the loan program is intended to provide long-term assistance to the car companies to retool their factories to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. They said it was not designed to provide urgent relief from a crisis in consumer confidence that has pushed auto sales to their lowest level in two decades.

"GM has estimated maybe they'd get a billion or two at most next year" from the previously approved loan program, Levin said. "It wouldn't provide for the infusion of capital that's absolutely necessary for them to bridge to the future."

Democrats want the Bush administration to approve an additional $25 billion in loans from the Treasury program, bringing total federal assistance to the car companies to $50 billion. In a letter sent yesterday to Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., Levin and other Michigan lawmakers urged Paulson "in the strongest possible terms to use your authority under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA) or other statutes to immediately address a significant and systemic threat to the U.S. economy and provide emergency assistance to the domestic automobile industry."

Given that one of every 10 U.S. jobs depends in some way on the auto industry, the letter says, helping Detroit is "well within the broad mandate of the Treasury Department to promote stable economic growth. Given the urgency of the situation, we ask that you work with us in the coming days to provide immediate loan support to the domestic auto industry, including, if necessary," by amending the emergency stabilization act.

The letter followed a similar entreaty to Paulson over the weekend by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.).

Amending the Treasury program would require action by both chambers of Congress. As of yesterday, Senate leaders planned to convene Nov. 17, but House leaders had yet to decide whether to summon lawmakers back to work. Although most House members will be in Washington next week to choose the leadership for the next Congress, retiring members and those who lost their seats on election night will not return unless Pelosi calls them back.

House leaders have said they are unlikely to convene the House for legislative business unless the Bush administration agrees to negotiate a spending package to revive the broader economy. As of yesterday, although the two sides continued to talk, there was no deal. But if the Senate approves a $61 billion economic stimulus package that the House passed in September, the House might return to work on that legislation, creating an opportunity to help the automakers.

Michigan lawmakers from both parties said failure to act would be devastating, not only to the car companies but also to the nation.

"Our nation's leaders must not turn a deaf ear toward helping the nation's automakers," Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), co-chairman of the Congressional Auto Caucus, said in a written statement. "We can either stand by and do nothing, watching tens of thousands of jobs in Michigan and Middle America evaporate, or we can meet our challenges head on."

Given the vast sums of money the Bush administration has provided to Wall Street, including a rapidly growing bailout for insurance giant American International Group, Levin said the administration had no excuse not to act.

"How much are we giving AIG? $150 billion? And we're talking about $25 billion for what has been the major industry of this country," Levin said. "If there's a will, there's a way. So now it's up to the administration to respond. If they don't, we'll act."










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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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  Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 23, 2008; 12:04 PM

Stocks regained some ground today as investors awaited more details of the financial rescue package being contemplated by Congress.

After falling more than 300 points yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 66 points in mid-morning trading today. The Nasdaq and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index were flat.

Even bank Washington Mutual, which has been battered by investor doubt that it can remain independent, was up 3 percent in mid-morning trading.

Investors have been concerned that the financial rescue plan proposed by the Treasury Department will not have the needed impact and that it will saddle the U.S. economy with an unmanageable level of debt. The plan, expected to cost about $700 billion, would allow the department to buy up the bad mortgage debt and other risky assets of financial firms.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. are testifying before the Senate banking committee on the plan this morning. Postponing action on the bailout proposal would risk "a continuing series of financial institution failures and frozen credit markets that threaten American families' financial well-being, the viability of businesses both small and large, and the very health of our economy," Paulson told the committee in prepared testimony.

Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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