But now that the Bush administration has agreed to lend GM and Chrysler $17.4 billion to stave off bankruptcy, Mulally is running as fast as he can from those other guys. "We're in a different place," says Mulally, whose company had $19 billion in cash on Sept. 30 and isn't seeking an immediate cash infusion.

Don't be so sure. Ford, which lost $8.7 billion through September, may yet need taxpayer money. It is burning more than $2 billion a month and has asked for a $9 billion line of credit as a safety net in case industry conditions worsen. And it's looking more and more like Ford will need it.

Ford's financial projections are based on a rosier industry sales forecast--12.5 million vehicles (including heavy trucks) in 2009 and 14.5 million in 2010--than most industry experts predict. JD Power & Associates is forecasting 11.4 million light-vehicle sales in 2009 and 13.6 million for 2010.

IHS Global Insight is even more pessimistic. It now forecasts sales of 10 million to 10.5 million light vehicles for 2009, and 12.5 million units for 2010. GM's best case scenario is 12 million units in 2009 and 14 million in 2010, though its business plan is based on more conservative estimates. Last year, the industry sold 16.1 million light vehicles.

If Ford's assumptions prove too optimistic--as is likely--it too will be approaching Uncle Sam for help. "All automakers, including Ford, are going to need government money," says IHS Global Insight analyst Rebecca Lindland.

Self-interest required Mulally to stand up for his weaker competitors. A collapse of one or both would hurt suppliers and could potentially bring down Ford as well. But in the meantime, Ford is shrewdly portraying itself as the healthiest U.S. carmaker and quietly stealing market share from its crosstown rivals. Ford gained 1.4 points of market share in November, while GM lost 1.6 points and Chrysler lost 2.3 points.\

Boeing and Airbus can give up any hope that Chinese demand might help offset their global sales slump. The country's aviation industry regulator has advised mainland airlines to cancel or postpone aircraft deliveries in 2009, as carriers struggle with a decline in air travel demand. Clamoring for government handouts, the airlines will listen, though they may have a hard time extracting concessions from suppliers.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China released guidelines Wednesday advising airlines to cancel or delay delivery of purchased aircraft in 2009. It also asked airlines to retire old aircraft and said it will not consider any new airline applications until 2010, according to a statement. The regulator encouraged further alliances and consolidation.

The once booming Chinese airline sector is suffering from overcapacity amid a slump in travel that started in the second half of 2008 as the economy began to cool. The airlines also have suffered from a wave of steep fuel-hedging losses, as oil plunged below $50 a barrel from over $140 a barrel during the summer.

Despite the government's encouragement, it is unclear how many aircraft orders can be canceled or postponed. "I don't think too much flexibility will be given to the airlines because Boeing and Airbus are also facing declining orders" in the U.S. and Europe, said Kelvin Lau, Hong Kong-based airline analyst for Daiwa Securities. "If they allow one airline to defer delivery, many more will want to do the same."

But Boeing (nyse: BA - news - people ) might allow more leeway than its archrival Airbus, a unit of EADS (other-otc: EADSY - news - people ), as the U.S. giant is facing difficulty meeting delivery schedules due to a labor strike that ended in November, he added.

Guotai Junan Securities analyst Martin Wang said the regulator's announcement may not have much impact without incentives, and noted that the commercial decisions remain in the airlines' hands. Delivery cancellations can also be expensive, as airlines typically put up in advance up to 30% of the purchase price, Lau said. Wang estimated penalties for contract changes may run 5% to 10% of the contract price.

Chinese airlines are on course to lose big this year. Beijing injected 3 billion yuan ($437.0 million) in November into China Southern Airlines (nyse: ZNH - news - people ), which Wang expects to post a loss of nearly 1 billion yuan ($145.7 million) for 2008. Wang and Lau expect China Eastern Airlines (nyse: CEA - news - people ) to get a similar government aid package--Wang estimates it is on track to post a loss of over 3 billion yuan ($437.0 million) for the year. Air China (other-otc: AIRYY - news - people ) is in the best shape of the three big Chinese airlines and may get by without aid.

Kenneth G. Brill's "Don't Be Fooled by Pretty Pictures" cautions about using computational fluid dynamics modeling tools, suggesting that they aren't accurate and are a very expensive way to analyze power and cooling air flow in data centers.

While pictures alone don't always tell the true story, CFD analysis is actually a cost-effective and accurate way for technology managers to visualize environmental conditions within a data center. And the color, 3-D graphical pictures that result from a CFD analysis are not only pretty--they can be worth a thousand words when coupled with the analysis, experience and insight of a data center services professional.

An experienced consultant provides strategic planning options for customers to follow, based on a set of parallel efforts to reduce risk and errors as well as assure overall operational improvements. However, a CFD analysis is only one in a complete set of tools at the consultant's disposal.

As Brill stated, a data center consultant needs to play a role akin to an expert physician. But just as a physician wouldn't perform surgery without looking at an X-ray or other image first, a data center manager shouldn't make cooling or heating decisions without a modeling map.

Rather than a pricey, flashy, quick-fix look at how to save on power costs, quality modeling provides great value as a means to evaluate a data center's risks and strengths. CFD models can help services professionals pinpoint exactly where air flow improvements are needed or where to help technology managers adjust capacity planning and budgeting for increased energy efficiency. Usually, the fee for a CFD analysis is very affordable--in the range of $30,000 to $70,000--far less than the $200,000 Brill cited.

A quick survey of technology services providers would show that modeling tools such as a CFD analysis are generally not sold stand alone. In fact, a data center should always be evaluated without modeling first to identify existing inefficiency gaps from non-compliance of best practices before undertaking the more in-depth modeling and analysis. CFD modeling is at its best within data centers where major adherence to best practices are already largely in place.

Once best practices are implemented, CFD will point out data center zones that are out of balance regarding provisioning, information technology loads and return air flows. It will also determine the actual operational condition/capacity of data center Computer Room Air Conditioning or Computer Room Air Handler units. Assumptions about their operational capacity are not in order. For example, the industry's best services consultants would not subcontract the assessment, and they would use a variety of their own power and cooling test and measurement equipment to determine the actual state and capacity of air handlers.

The mass efforts to modify mortgages and stave off foreclosures sound great. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is reaching out to 400,000 at-risk customers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are freezing foreclosures until 2009. Some 500,000 distressed borrowers at Citigroup (C) could get relief over the next six months. But even if banks live up to their promises, the initiatives may not be the panacea the housing market needs.

Following the lead of state and federal agencies, many of the industry's biggest lenders have announced plans in recent weeks to work out troubled mortgages by cutting rates, deferring principal, or extending the lengths of loans—all designed to lower borrowers' monthly payments and keep people in their homes. But absent further steps, the private and public programs together will help only about 2 million homeowners, fewer than a quarter of the borrowers expected to face foreclosure through 2010. Those tallies could rise if unemployment, now around 6.5%, climbs above 8%.

Not all borrowers should be saved. After all, some foreclosures are important to rid the market of people who should never have gotten a loan in the first place. Also, real estate speculators, individuals who bought a second or third home, and dubious borrowers aren't likely to get relief.

A necessary purge aside, the outlook isn't pretty. If banks do manage to prevent all 2 million foreclosures, the number of homeowners who default each year will still be four times higher than earlier this decade. It's hard to stabilize home prices when defaults are hitting records. The programs "are just a drop in the bucket," says John H. Maher at banking consultancy LECG (XPRT).

Despite the grand gestures, banks face hurdles in reworking loans en masse. Lenders can easily revamp the mortgages they own outright on their books, but they don't always have the authority to change loans sold to investors in mortgage-backed securities.

The legal battles could start soon. BusinessWeek has learned that a prominent money management firm plans to file suit in early December against one of the nation's largest banks over the bank's loan-modification program. The firm alleges the bank won't absorb the losses from cutting mortgage payments, passing them off instead to investors.

It may also take a while for banks to kick their programs into high gear. Consider AIG Federal Savings Bank. As part of a 2007 agreement with its regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, over predatory lending practices, the unit of insurer AIG set aside $178 million to bail out borrowers. Some 18 months later, the thrift has refunded only $48.4 million in fees, according to regulatory filings. AIG Federal Savings has also cut the overall size of its program by $53 million, leaving just $76.6 million to modify loans. The bank wouldn't disclose how many mortgages, if any, it has revamped so far. "AIG Federal Savings Bank [and an affiliate] have provided relief for thousands of customers consistent with the terms of the [regulatory] agreement," says an AIG spokesman. OTS officials say the program is working.

MANY BACKSLIDERS

Meanwhile, there's no guarantee that troubled borrowers who get a new loan won't become repeat offenders. Most of the new plans lower a homeowner's monthly mortgage bill to 38% or 40% of their aftertax income. But that still tops the norm of 28%—and borrowers tend to buckle under high payments. Historically, roughly 50% of modified mortgages sour after a few payments, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS), a Florida loan-processing firm.

A JPMorgan spokesman notes that of the 400,000 borrowers flagged for loan modification under its new program, some 40,000 have already been bailed out by the bank at least once during the past two years. Says Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American CoreLogic (FAF), a mortgage industry consultant: "Loan-modification programs have a high recidivism rate." That suggests the hangover from the housing bust could last for quite a while.

With Brian Grow in Atlanta and Mara Der Hovanesian in New York 
 

KABUL, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Little Banafsha wakes up in her small mud home, has a cup of tea and braces herself for the day ahead.

An exhausted Banafsha takes a moment's rest from begging for bread.

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She is just 11 years old but she is the breadwinner for her family. Literally. Without the bread that she begs from strangers, she, her sisters, baby brothers and mom would all go hungry.

Her father is a drug addict, focused only on his next high, her mom cares for the little ones and heavy responsibility falls on Banafsha's young shoulders.

Every day she heads far from her home, trekking up and down steep hills to the wealthier parts of the Afghan capital where she can but hope richer people will take pity on her.

She is not bitter, explaining: "My two younger sisters also work. They beg for bread and sell gum -- there's no choice."

When she gets to the Wazir Akbar Khan district, a hangout of diplomats and aid workers, she unwraps her folded rice sack.

"Sir, do you have some bread?" Watch Banafsha and other Afghan kids ask for help »

Banafsha clutches the bag tight as she walks from building to building, eyeing who will help and who will not.

"Sir, do you have some bread?" she asks again.

This is her recitation for the next six hours, as she darts around in her worn blue plastic sandals, knowing that danger could be there at any turn, even in this more affluent neighborhood.

"A few days ago, some girls were kidnapped around here and many people have gone missing. The girls' mother still comes around here looking for them but they still haven't been found," Banafsha says.

This time of the year the sun begins to set at 4:30 p.m. in Kabul. But Banafsha continues to roam the dark streets. The 6 o'clock rush hour is her peak business time.

Her eyes well up with tears, but she doesn't allow them to fall, quickly wiping them away and biting her thumb like the vulnerable child that she is.

She prays everyday, "I say 'God take me out of this poverty and have my father go work so I can go to school.' "

She dreams of being a teacher and for three hours a day she gets to be a little girl with big dreams.

On her way to beg, Banafsha stops off at a center run by an Afghan nongovernmental organization called Aschiana -- the name means "nest" in Dari -- for a little education, a little recreation and a glimmer of hope.

The first center opened in 1995 for 100 children. By June 2008, Aschiana had eight centers catering to 7,600 children in the capital city of Kabul alone.

The group thought it had secured a major source of funding in March this year, but the money never arrived. Four centers had to be closed in June, sending 4,000 children back to the streets without their three-hour reprieve.

Inside, Banafsha and the other children get to laugh. In every room there is a sense of serenity, whether the children are practicing brush strokes for calligraphy, tumbling around in judo or gliding their little fingers over the harmounia, a type of piano used in music class.

For now, the center is surviving on small, private donations, but it is not enough. Aschiana stopped providing food for the children at three of the remaining centers because they couldn't afford it.

Without that relief, even more children head back to the streets to beg for the smallest morsels to fill their empty stomachs.

On a good day, Banafsha will trek back across the steep hills to the home she helped her mother build with some bread in her bag and maybe 50 cents.

At home, the work continues. As the eldest sister she tends to her siblings. Her mother relies on her help; her father is only focused on his next high.

Finally, she will sleep. But tomorrow, Banafsha will walk down into the crowded city streets again, among the estimated 60,000 other street kids in Kabul, dreaming of a better life.