'Moscow'에 해당되는 글 3건

  1. 2008.12.12 A Ruble-Rousing Depreciation by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.11.23 Russia Gazprom: no gas for Ukraine without contract by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.11.13 Midnights in Moscow, post-Soviet style by CEOinIRVINE

I recently spent a few days in Moscow meeting with a variety of economic and financial officials and analysts, both in the public and private sector.

Until July of this year, Russia was rosy: It was growing at an annual rate close to 8%; oil prices were peaking at $140 a barrel; the country was running a large fiscal and current account surplus; it had a war chest of $600 billion-plus of foreign reserves; and its stock market, bond markets and currency values were strong. Policy makers were thinking of turning the ruble into a major reserve currency, at least for the CIS bloc.

This economic and financial success led Russia to flex its geopolitical muscle, challenging the U.S. on a number of political and military issues and using its energy power as an instrument of foreign policy in its relations with the Eurozone and its former Soviet neighbors. The peak of this resurgence of the Russian bear came during the August war with Georgia, when Russia flaunted its military power as the U.S. looked impotent in its inability to defend an ally.

But what a difference a short time makes. Six months later, Russia is in deep economic and financial trouble.

The S&P has just announced that it has lowered Russia's foreign-currency credit rating by one notch from BBB+ to BBB. In less than six months, oil prices have fallen to under $50 a barrel (from the $140-plus peak of July). The stock market has fallen by over 60%, and on some days it has been shut down to prevent a free-fall. The current account surplus has turned into a near deficit and a sure deficit by 2009. The country has experienced a capital flight of over $100 billion and has lost about $150 billion of foreign reserves (now down to about a $450 billion level). It is facing massive external debt-financing problems as its banks financed their lending with foreign currency borrowings and its corporate firms financed massive expansion with foreign currency debt. It is now desperately trying to prevent a sharp depreciation of its currency by aggressive foreign exchange intervention. It may face a large fiscal deficit (2% of GDP) next year, and its GDP growth rate is sharply slowing down, leading the World Bank to predict a rate of only 3% in 2009--with leading local analysts predicting an actual recession (negative growth of as much as -2%) in 2009. (See the recent analysis by RGE's Rachel Ziemba for more on the risks of a hard landing in Russia.)

Given this sudden change in Russian fortunes, there are several key policy issues that the authorities need to deal with. Of course, given the external shocks (terms of trade worsening and a sudden stop of capital and credit), it was important to use the buffer of foreign reserves to avoid a bank run by providing liquidity and capital to banks--and by providing a fiscal stimulus to a country that is sharply slowing down.

But the key unresolved policy issue is what to do with the exchange rate. Until recently, Russia was on an effective basket peg (with 55% for the dollar and a 45% weight for the euro). But with oil prices now down over 60% from the peak of the summer, and with incipient current account and fiscal deficits and a likely recession in 2009, the currency is obviously overvalued. A reasonable estimate of the needed exchange-rate depreciation--with oil at about $50 a barrel in 2009--is 25%. But until recently, the authorities resisted the needed depreciation through aggressive foreign exchange intervention.

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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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MOSCOW, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Russia's gas firm Gazprom wwould like to avoid supply cuts to Ukraine in 2009 but will not continue deliveries without a new contract, Gazprom's spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said on Saturday.

Russia has often threatened to cut gas supplies during pricing disputes with Ukraine and has fulfilled the threat in early 2006, briefly halting supplies to Europe, 80 percent of which go via Ukrainian territory.

Gazprom said on Thursday Ukraine must repay a $2.4 billion gas debt before new supply contracts are signed, raising fears the two sides face another battle in their gas war.

"We would like to avoid such a scenario (this time). We have time to reach an agreement before the new year but as you understand we cannot supply gas without a contract," Kupriyanov told Vesti 24 television channel.

Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz said its debt to RosUkrEnergo, a Russian-Ukraine intermediary gas trader, co-owned by Gazprom, amounts to only $1.27 billion.

Kupriyanov said the Ukrainian side counted only Sept-Oct debt while Gazprom included November debt as well as penalties. He denied there were major differences in the overall debt estimates.

"Everybody understands pretty well who owes to whom and how much," Kupriyanov said.

Ukraine and Russia are engaged in talks on a 2009 price for gas, currently set at $179.50 per 1,000 cubic metres. Kupriyanov said a market price for 2009 gas deliveries was $400 per 1,000 cubic metres.

GAS BURNING IN FURNACES

A memorandum signed in October by Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko sees a gradual transition to market pricing and direct supplies without intermediaries such as RosUkrEnergo.

Kupriyanov said direct supplies as well as lower gas prices for Ukraine in 2009 were only possible if other conditions set out in the memorandum, such as debt redemption in full, were met. He said Russia would not discount for the global crisis.

"If Ukraine's consumption drops, our deliveries will fall as well but it is not happening. Gas is burning in furnaces of Ukraine's economy as it had been before, therefore the crisis has nothing to do with it," Kupriyanov said.

Gazprom supplies a quarter of Europe's gas needs and sends one fifth of its total exports via Belarus with the rest going via Ukraine, giving both countries extra leverage over the firm in pricing disputes.

Kupriyanov said Gazprom's financial standing was sound, debt portfolio "healthy" with the share of short term loans only 14 percent, while a revision of the capital investment plan will not concern priority projects such as the Nord Stream pipeline. "We can talk about not receiving some of expected profit (from domestic operations). The demand is falling, warm weather in November has also played a role," Kupriyanov said.

He said the firm was in intense talks with Belarus and Moldova to switch to rouble payments. Gazprom supplied 15.32 bcm of gas to Belarus at $128 per tcm in Jan-Sept 2008 and 1.9 bcm to Moldova.

With the Russian rouble under depreciation pressure as a result of falling prices for oil, Russia's main export commodity, Russia is seeking to boost international demand for roubles from its ex-Soviet neighbours.

"The rouble is the most reliable currency. Our expenditure is also in roubles. Matching our revenues and expenses is a reasonable thing," Kupriyanov said.

He added that the transition will require changes to contracts with Belarus and Moldova. He said Russia was not yet talking about switching to roubles with Ukraine but it was "theoretically possible". (Reporting by Gleb Bryanski, Editing by Peter Blackburn)


Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- As I raised my hands toward the ceiling and then pointed them toward my head, I had to wonder: How would the 19th-century Russian writer Nikolai Gogol feel if he knew that a bunch of foreigners were dancing the YMCA at a nightclub named after him?

The iconic St. Basil's Cathedral in Red Square takes on a brighter, more colorful look at night.

The iconic St. Basil's Cathedral in Red Square takes on a brighter, more colorful look at night.

By Elizabeth Landau
CNN
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MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- As I raised my hands toward the ceiling and then pointed them toward my head, I had to wonder: How would the 19th-century Russian writer Nikolai Gogol feel if he knew that a bunch of foreigners were dancing the YMCA at a nightclub named after him?

The iconic St. Basil's Cathedral in Red Square takes on a brighter, more colorful look at night.

The iconic St. Basil's Cathedral in Red Square takes on a brighter, more colorful look at night.

Gogol the man is considered the father of modern Russian realism, with works such as "Dead Souls." Gogol the cafe-club is considered a favorite hangout for Russians and expatriates alike, perfect for meals, coffee, fruity cocktails and music 'til everyone clears out around 2:30 a.m., when Moscow's "real" nightclubs heat up.

Since the Soviet Union fell in 1991, Russia's capital city has progressed in many ways, breaking free of old social structures while struggling to maintain its cultural heritage.

The city has preserved a lot of its old beauty, boasting monuments such as St. Basil's Cathedral and gorgeous landscapes such as Tsaritsino Park. At the same time, there are Internet cafes and 24-hour bookstores, and you'd be hard-pressed to meet someone who doesn't carry a cell phone.

But, as an American studying abroad at Moscow State University, I sometimes felt perplexed in this immense modern metropolis that still makes certain familiar conveniences inconvenient.

In Moscow, kiosks for adding money to your cell phone seem far more common than ATMs. Even nice restaurants with $40-minimum meals -- for example, the best beef stroganoff and fried cheese balls of your life -- accept only cash, no cards. After two weeks, I never figured out where to buy a nail clipper -- but I did see Vladimir Lenin's body, perfectly preserved since 1924. Photo View more photos of Moscow »

At the university, I had to present a special ID card to one set of guards at the entrance, a dorm pass to another crew, and then confront a third layer of hallway-based security before arriving at my room. I also needed written approval from my floor's "administrator" to take luggage out of the building.

Then, there's money. Moscow, or "Moskva" in Russian, holds the distinction of the world's most expensive city, according to Mercer's 2008 Worldwide Cost of Living Survey. Be prepared for fees from your bank and the Russian bank whenever you use an ATM. Try to stay away from touristy restaurants for meals, and do your souvenir shopping at Izmailovsky Market (Metro: Izmailovsky Park) instead of in stores

The expatriates I encountered all echoed the sentiment that Moscow is a city of constant stress. Maybe that's why I will always love most the Moscow I experienced at night.

The monuments that look mildly impressive by day suddenly come to life with light against the onyx sky. You can look out over Sparrow Hills and see the endless glittering skyline, or settle down somewhere like Gogol (Metro: Tverskaya) for vodka-enhanced beverages and music from around the world. And, as long as you know "Mozhna?" ("May I?") and "Spasiba" ("Thank you)," it matters less that few people speak substantial English.

Café Bilingua (Metro: Chistye Prudy) is another cozy place to mingle with locals and ex-pats for hours on end -- you can have your coffee in the tiny two-story book shop, or take it up to the restaurant and performance section. Another bar I liked is Etage (Metro: Pushkinskaya), right off Pushkin's Square near a large neon-light sculpture of flowers (how would the great poet feel about that?).

Nightclubs dedicated to too-many-people-to-move dance floors don't start up until well after midnight. Propaganda (Metro: Lubyanka), conveniently located near the headquarters of the KGB, spins all kinds of dance music -- go on a Thursday evening for a less crowded experience.

Then there's The Real McCoy (Metro: Barrikadnaya), so packed with people that merely crossing the room to stand in the bathroom line requires bumping bodies to the beat. At first we couldn't even get in because the bouncer shook his head at my Swiss friend. But, as always, it's all about who you know -- my Spanish friend's Spanish friend had VIP status, so we went as his entourage to an upscale restaurant-like room in the back.

Part of my Moscow nightlife adventures included riding on an overnight train. For my trip from St. Petersburg to Moscow, I had been told at every ticket office that only seats were available. But upon boarding at midnight, I asked a crew member if I could have a bed. Five minutes and $80 later, the fleshy man who took my ticket had locked me into a less-than-closet-sized space with him.

I prepared to claw at the door with my untrimmed nails and scream.

"Close," he said. Then he unlocked it to demonstrate "open." He stepped out, gave me a stiff wave, and said, "See you in Moskva." I sighed and fell asleep on the child-sized mattress.

Among the plethora of Moscow's unspoken rules: Do not talk in the elevators or hallways of your student dorm. Accustomed to the silence, one night I was surprised to hear the glorious sound of a Frédéric Chopin nocturne coming from behind a security guard's desk. "Mozhna?" I asked, pointing to the door his chair blocked. He just shrugged, so I quietly ducked behind him and pulled the handle.

Behold, a secret two-story ballroom with tables and chairs and an upright piano in the corner, and a Russian student who abruptly lifted his hands from the piano keys when I sat down. We took turns playing (thus, my failed-love song "Sad Panda" debuted on a new continent) and, in broken but passionate English, he told me how he wished he could sound like the Russian-American pianist Vladimir Horowitz, and said he often comes with his friend to play around 9 p.m.

As if it were the end of a great Russian novel, I never heard music in that hallway again.



 

Gogol the man is considered the father of modern Russian realism, with works such as "Dead Souls." Gogol the cafe-club is considered a favorite hangout for Russians and expatriates alike, perfect for meals, coffee, fruity cocktails and music 'til everyone clears out around 2:30 a.m., when Moscow's "real" nightclubs heat up.

Since the Soviet Union fell in 1991, Russia's capital city has progressed in many ways, breaking free of old social structures while struggling to maintain its cultural heritage.

The city has preserved a lot of its old beauty, boasting monuments such as St. Basil's Cathedral and gorgeous landscapes such as Tsaritsino Park. At the same time, there are Internet cafes and 24-hour bookstores, and you'd be hard-pressed to meet someone who doesn't carry a cell phone.

Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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