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  1. 2009.02.10 Obama's Dilema by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.11.27 Stocks build on recent rally with moderate gains by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.11.22 Stocks rally on Treasury secretary talk by CEOinIRVINE

Obama's Dilema

Politics 2009. 2. 10. 11:31

When President Obama takes to the airwaves Monday evening to rally support for his $800 billion-plus stimulus plan, he'll find himself in the tricky position of simultaneously needing to inspire confidence in the long-term strength of the economy while also dramatizing the current crisis as so dire that immediate action by Congress is necessary.

It's part of a White House publicity blitz to sell his strategy to the public, and it'll be in press conference format so the president can defend criticism of his plan rather than just laying out the details.

Earlier Monday, the president made a targeted pitch at a town hall meeting in Elkhart, Ind., where unemployment reached 15.3% in December. Tuesday, Obama takes the same message on the road to Florida. Meanwhile, Congress is struggling to come up with a bill to send to the president's desk.

Lately, he's done little to balance these competing positions. In Indiana Monday, Obama warned that delay would mean that "millions of jobs will be lost, and national unemployment rates will approach double digits," also adding that no matter what is done "recovery will likely be measured in years, not weeks or months."

It wasn't exactly a fireside chat. Don't expect one tonight, either. Here's what you're likely to see in Monday's press conference:

The selling points

Expect Obama's remarks Monday to be directed at individuals, just as they were during his Indiana speech. He'll point out that the plan will provide extended unemployment benefits, tax credits of up to $1,000 for families, partially refundable student tax credits and that more than 90% of the jobs created will be in the private sector.

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Wall Street extended its gains into a fourth session Wednesday, rising moderately after President-elect Obama soothed investors by pledging he would have a plan to deal with the nation's economic crisis on his first day in office.

Stocks that had fallen in early trading on reports of more economic weakness turned higher after Obama stated, "Help is on the way." He spoke as he filled more spots on his economic team.

There was still caution in the market, however, not surprising since Wall Street is coming off three sessions of gains that gave the Dow Jones industrials and the Standard & Poor's 500 index their first triple-session advances in more than two months. Traders were also cautious ahead of what is essentially an extended Thanksgiving holiday weekend; the market is closed Thursday and will have an abbreviated session Friday.

Obama's remarks were calming after the day's economic reports. The Labor Department said initial requests for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 529,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 543,000. That is lower than analysts' expectations of 537,000. Still, the initial claims remain at recessionary levels.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in two years as the economy weakened. The 6.2 percent drop was more than double the 3 percent decline economists expected.

It also reported that sales of new homes fell 5.3 percent in October to the lowest level in nearly 18 years. The seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 433,000 homes was the lowest level since January 1991, when the country was facing another steep housing downturn.

Americans also cut back on their spending in October by the largest amount since the 2001 terror attacks. The Commerce Department said consumer spending plunged by 1 percent last month, worse than the 0.9 percent decline that had been expected. The report also said personal incomes rose 0.3 percent last month, more than the 0.1 percent gain analysts had predicted.

Analysts said some of the turnaround was also due to the fact that the economic news was expected to be bad.

"What the market might be saying is that investors had been bracing for some of this," said Todd Salamone, director of trading and vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, noting that investors have tempered how much spending they expect from consumers. "Expectations have come down, but the big question is if that's rational or not. Certainly the stock market and the credit markets have suggested there might be some rationale in that, but time will tell."

In late morning trading, the Dow industrials rose 35.60, or 0.42 percent, 8,515.07.

Broader indicators also rose. The S&P 500 advanced 3.46, or 0.40 percent, to 860.85, while the Nasdaq rose 30.10, or 2.05 percent, to 1,494.83.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 5.30, or 1.20 percent, to 448.48.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 9 to 5 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 333.1 million shares.

On Tuesday, stocks finished mostly higher as investors were encouraged by new government initiatives to help unfreeze the credit markets. The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve said they planned to provide $800 billion to aid the market for consumer debt and to make mortgage loans cheaper and more available.

The Dow finished up 36 points, for a gain of more than 900 points across three sessions. The Dow last put a three-day advance together on Aug. 26-28. The S&P 500, meanwhile, had its first three-day rise since Sept. 10-12. Tech stocks lagged and sent the Nasdaq moderately lower as investors feared businesses will further cut back on technology spending.

Still, the market's performance in recent sessions has been a welcome show of stability as stocks have generally traded with less volatility than they had in the past three months as the market's yearlong pullback intensified.

Salamone remains cautious and isn't sure the calm will last.

"I don't think its a sign of longer-term stability, but feel this is a sign of shorter-term stability. There's just too much uncertainty out there," he said.

Bond prices were mixed Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.00 percent from 3.10 percent late Tuesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.05 percent from 0.09 percent late Tuesday.

The dollar mostly rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude rose $1.12 to $51.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Some of Wednesday's caution was also likely due to uneasiness ahead of the holiday shopping season. The season, which accounts for as much as 40 percent of annual profits for many stores, is expected to be the weakest in decades, as consumers grapple with rising unemployment and a drop in household wealth.

Some consumer technology names managed to post gains as investors hoped they might be able to see post holiday results.

Apple Inc. rose $3.49, or 3.8 percent, to $94.29, while Dell Inc. rose 49 cents, or 4.7 percent, to $10.91. Sprint rose 22 cents, or 9.4 percent, to $2.55.

Blue chip stocks were mixed. Consumer products maker Procter & Gamble Co. fell 70 cents to $62.48, while Chevron Corp. rose $1.06 to $77.59.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1.33 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.10 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.37 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 2.03 percent.

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Stocks rally on Treasury secretary talk

Stocks rally on Treasury secretary talk


 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow industrials bouncing as much as 550 points, after reports surfaced that President-elect Barack Obama will nominate New York Federal Bank president Timothy Geithner as his new Treasury Secretary.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 494 points, or 6.6%, according to early tallies. It was the fifth-biggest single-session point gain ever, according to Dow Jones.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index gained 6.3% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 5.2%.

Stocks rallied in the morning on reports that troubled Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) might put itself up for sale. But the company's CEO shot down the rumors in a call with senior managers, sending Citi's shares and the broader market lower.

But the market managed to snap back in the last two hours of trading as reports about the president-elect's cabinet appointment circulated. Stocks had also been primed for a snap-back rally anyway, after the S&P 500 ended the previous session at an 11-1/2 year low.

In particular, Wall Street seemed to welcome Obama's reported pick of Geithner, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee. Geithner was the Fed's point person on the rescue of Bear Stearns and AIG.

Additionally, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is reportedly being considered for Commerce Secretary.

The Dow has lost 10.4% over the last two sessions, its worst two-day percentage drop in over 20 years, according to Dow Jones.

Looking forward, stocks aren't likely to see a lasting rally in the weeks ahead, with the markets continuing to be driven by the day-to-day news, said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

"Maybe if we start to hear that Christmas isn't going to be quite as terrible as everyone thinks or if we get some other shred of less negative news, we can see a small advance," he said. "But at this point, I just don't see the catalyst."

Banks and homebuilders: Companies hit most directly by the subprime mortgage fallout and credit crisis were under pressure.

The bank sector and the credit market had seen some improvement in late October and early November amid a series of steps by the government to make cash more available. But now that trend seems to have ended. That's especially been the case since the Treasury Department said it will no longer buy banks' bad mortgage debt, as it originally planned to do, through the $700 billion bailout.

Citigroup's plunge of 22% on questions about its future exacerbated the gloom hanging over the sector.

Among the other bank movers, JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) shares slumped 15%, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) lost 9% and Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) lost 7%.

Auto sector: Investors also contended with the albatross of the automakers, with an auto sector bailout all but dead. The top executives of the Big Three automakers told Congress this week that need a $25 billion loan to stay in business.

Some critics think the companies would be better served by declaring bankruptcy and restructuring. However, such a move would still bring job losses and more strain on the already struggling economy.

Congress has pledged to return next month to reconsider the bid if the automakers can come up with a "viable" recovery plan. GM (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford (F, Fortune 500) shares dropped Friday.

Other company news: After the close Thursday, Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that topped estimates and weaker revenue that missed estimates. But the stock fell anyway.

Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) was one of the session's bright spots. After the close Thursday, the apparel retailer reported higher earnings that topped analysts' estimates on weaker revenue that missed estimates. Shares gained 16% Friday.

Other markets: Global markets were mixed, with Asian stocks ending higher and European markets ending lower.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery rose 51 cents to settle at $49.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, in the first day of trading for the new contract.

The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

COMEX gold for December delivery rallied $43.10 to settle at $791.80 an ounce.

For the first time in 3-1/2 years, gasoline prices fell below $2 a gallon, losing 3.1 cents to a national average of $1.989 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card activity released Friday by AAA. Prices have been dropping for over two months. In that time, prices have lost $1.84 a gallon, or over 52%.

Bonds: Treasury yields bounced back Friday after the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year government bonds all finished the previous session at the lowest levels since the Federal Reserve started keeping records in 1962.

The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill hung close to 68-year lows of zero, versus a yield of 0.01% Thursday. The 3-month - seen as the safest place to put money in the short term - last hit these levels in September as investor panic peaked. The low yield means nervous investors would rather preserve their money despite no interest rather than risk the stock market.

Borrowing rates worsened a bit. The 3-month Libor rate rose to 2.16% from 2.15% Thursday, while overnight Libor rose to 0.47% from 0.44% Thursday, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a key bank lending rate. To top of page

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