'Volcker'에 해당되는 글 2건

  1. 2008.12.24 Life In A Recession by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.11.27 Obama Taps Volcker to Head Advisory Board by CEOinIRVINE

Life In A Recession

Business 2008. 12. 24. 03:14

Some people say recessions are inevitable; others say they are healthy, necessary to clean out the system and clear the way for the next expansion. Finally, while many blame greedy capitalists for pushing things too far, there are some who believe that the current recession is something we deserved (or earned) because so many lived beyond their means.

No matter what you believe, recessions are never fun. Beneath all the statistics and data are real people facing real challenges. The unemployment rate, now 6.7%, is headed to about 8% by late 2009. In the fourth quarter, real gross domestic product will drop the most since the brutal recession of 1981-1982, when, over the course of only two years, Paul Volcker reversed 20 years of inflationary monetary policy.

But it is not just the speed of the collapse that is so scary; it is that our current generation has little experience with economic pain. Between 1965 and 1982, the U.S. economy was in recession one out of every three years, inflation hit double digits and the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8%.

Since 1982, the U.S. has been in recession just one out of 16 years, the unemployment rate bottomed at 3.8% in early 2000 and then at 4.4% in early 2007. In other words, a wobbly economy today feels much worse to the average American and politician than it did 30 years ago.

So we have a real schizophrenia today. People are going to the mall for holiday shopping, parking hundreds of yards away and waiting in long lines to check out. But then these same people go to parties and argue about whether the Obama economic stimulus plan should be $500 billion or $1 trillion. It feels so bad that President Bush is justifying his economic intervention by saying that "I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system."

What's important to recognize is that even at the bottom of the current recession, sometime in mid-2009, the living standards of the typical American will still be amazingly high. In fact, even an aggressive contraction in real GDP will leave per-capita real GDP above 2005 levels.

Now, we did not have 8% unemployment back in 2005, but that kind of jobless rate is not unusual for recessions. The unemployment rate peaked at only 6.3% in the recession early this decade but peaked at 7.8%, 10.8%, 7.8%, and 9% in each of the previous four recessions, respectively, dating all the way back to the 1973-1975 recession.


'Business' 카테고리의 다른 글

Play Clean With Wash Sale Rule  (0) 2008.12.24
Stumbling Giants: EA And Take-Two  (0) 2008.12.24
Company of the Year: Nasdaq  (0) 2008.12.24
No Happy Holidays For U.S. Housing  (0) 2008.12.24
Smart Tax Moves To Make Right Now  (0) 2008.12.22
Posted by CEOinIRVINE
l

President-elect Barack Obama today named former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker to head a new advisory panel designed to help guide the administration' s efforts to stabilize the nation's struggling financial system and create jobs.

Speaking at his third news conference in three days, Obama said the new Economic Recovery Advisory Board will be responsible for bringing fresh thinking and "vigorous oversight" to the administration's efforts to jumpstart and reshape the nation's economy.

"The reality is that sometimes policymaking in Washington can become too insular," Obama said. "The walls of the echo chamber can sometimes keep out fresh voices and new ways of thinking--and those who serve in Washington don't always have a ground-level sense of which programs and policies are working for people, and which aren't."

Obama has said that soon after he takes office he wants to enact a massive
economic recovery plan that will save or create 2.5 million jobs, through a combination of tax breaks for the middle class and a huge infusion of government spending on infrastructure projects that he hopes will lay the foundation for future economic growth.

He said the new advisory board will help police that effort. It will be headed by Volcker, 81, who was appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Jimmy Carter and reappointed in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan. He served as one of Obama's closest economic advisers during the presidential campaign.

During his tenure as Fed chair, Volcker was confronted with an economic crisis marked by high inflation and stagnant growth, which he battled by raising interest rates. That eventually arrested the problem, but not before the nation endured a deep recession.

Obama said he is modeling the advisory board on the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, created by President Eisenhower. It eventually will include a broad cross section of economic stakeholders and researchers , from union members to business owners and university researchers.

"The board will report regularly to me, Vice President-elect Biden and our economic team as we seek to jump-start economic growth," Obama said.

The board's top staff official will be Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist, who has advised Obama since his 2004 campaign for the U.S. Senate. Obama also named Goolsbee to his three-member Council of Economic Advisers, which will be headed by Christina Romer, a University of California, Berkeley economist.

The advisory board selections are the latest in a series of economic appointments made by Obama this week. Many of the key members of his team have experience working in the Clinton administration, which had led to grumbling in some quarters that Obama is recycling Clinton's team, undercutting his promise of change. But Obama deflected that criticism, saying he is trying to combine experience with new ideas and leadership.

"The last Democratic administration we had was the Clinton administration," Obama said. "And so it would be surprising if I selected a Treasury secretary or a chairman of the National Economic Council at one of the most critical economic times in our history who had no experience in government whatsoever. What we are going to do is combine experience with fresh thinking. But understand where the...vision for change comes from first and foremost. It comes from me."


Posted by CEOinIRVINE
l