The Bush administration is seriously considering "orderly" bankruptcy as a way of dealing with the desperately ailing U.S. auto industry.

White House press secretary Dana Perino said Thursday, "There's an orderly way to do bankruptcies that provides for more of a soft landing. I think that's what we would be talking about."

President George W. Bush, asked about an auto rescue plan during an appearance before a private group, said he hadn't decided what he would do.

But he, like Perino, spoke of the idea of bankruptcies organized by the federal government as a possible way to go.

"Under normal circumstances, no question bankruptcy court is the best way to work through credit and debt and restructuring," he said. "These aren't normal circumstances. That's the problem."

At the White House, Perino said, "The president is not going to allow a disorderly collapse of the companies. A disorderly collapse would be something very chaotic that is a shock to the system."

She said the White House was close to a decision and emphasized there were still several possible approaches to assisting the automakers, such as short-term loans out of a $700 billion Wall Street rescue fund. Bush has resisted this approach before, and it is adamantly opposed by many Republicans.



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There Are Too Many Car Companies Anyway

Michael E. Marks, 12.17.08, 07:05 PM EST

Even without Big Three bankruptcies, the industry badly needs consolidation.

By now, everyone has heard about and debated the plight of the Big Three automakers and whether they should be saved. Here is a slightly different approach to the question, taken by looking at the amount of product currently available from global brands in a couple of other categories compared with automobiles. It might lend some interesting perspective to the debate.

I've picked two other categories, cellphones and computers. Both are products bought by substantial numbers of consumers, and both are products sold globally by major international companies. First some overall numbers:

Product

Units Sold Globally

Units Sold in the U.S.

Cellphones

1.2 billion

146 million

Personal Computers

271 million

64 million

Automobiles

91 million

16 million

These are all 2007 numbers. They'll likely be lower for 2008 and 2009

Now let's look at the number of global brands of each, available in the U.S.:

Major Cellphone Brands (8)

Apple
BlackBerry
LG
Motorola
Nokia
Palm
Motorola
Samsung
Sony Ericsson

Major Personal Computer Brands (7)

Apple
Dell
Hewlett-Packard
Lenovo (previously IBM)
Panasonic
Sony
Toshiba
Toshiba

Car Brands Available in the U.S. (40)

Audi
BMW
Buick
Cadillac
Chevrolet
Chrysler
Corvette
Dodge
Ferrari
Ford
Honda
Hummer
Hyundai
Infiniti
Jaguar
Jeep
Kia
Lamborghini
Land Rover
Lexus
Lincoln
Lotus
Maserati
Mazda
Mercedes-Benz
Mini
Mitsubishi
Nissan
Pontiac
Porsche
Saab
Saturn
Scion
Smart
Subaru
Suzuki
Tesla
Toyota
Volkswagen
Volvo

I imagine you know where I'm going with this. Unit sales in the U.S. for automobiles are only 25% of the number of computers sold, 11% of the number of cellphones sold. Yet the number of brands available is far greater, approximately five times as many. Of course, the argument for this is that there is a far greater need for variety among automobiles, because of size, cost, personal preference and so forth. I thought I would eliminate some of the variables and look at how many brands have four-door sedans in a price range of $20,000 to $35,000. There are 16 with 2009 models. Here they are:

Buick
Chevrolet
Chrysler
Dodge
Ford
Honda
Hyundai
Kia
Mazda
Nissan
Pontiac
Saab
Suzuki
Saturn
Toyota
Volkswagen

This still seems like a lot, but wait--it get's better (or worse). Within each of these brands, there are several different types of four-door sedans. For example, Toyota has the Avalon, Camry, Corolla, Prius and Yaris. If you're looking for a four-passenger car but want only two doors, Toyota offers another model, the Solaris.

You get the point. All of this is to raise a very simple question: Why do we even need three U.S. automobile companies? Clearly, U.S. consumers have far more choice already than they need.

If we look back at cellphones even five years ago, there were also Siemens (nyse: SI - news - people ), Alcatel, Ericsson and other brands. Those companies went out of the cellphone business. Twenty years ago there were more than 50 brands of personal computer. They have consolidated or have gone out of business too. Isn't this what should happen with the global automobile business?

The only thing standing in the way of that, and an appropriate rationalization of companies and brands, is government support. Without it, we would soon have a list of global auto companies that looked like the lists above for cellphones and computers.

The result of having too many companies is exactly what we are now seeing. Not enough companies can earn their cost of capital. But with government support, they can hang on, often for a very long time, which reduces profits throughout the industry, which leads to less investment, lower quality and less innovation. So if our government is going to aid and abet this poor outcome, perhaps it should think about supporting only one of these companies, or two at the most. We just don't need three. Period. What we need isless choice.

Michael E. Marks manages a private equity fund, Riverwood Capital, which invests in rapidly growing private companies in North America and emerging markets. Prior to Riverwood, Marks spent a year as a member of Kohlberg, Kravis & Roberts and continued to serve as a senior adviser after he left to start his own fund. Preceding KKR, Marks served as chief executive officer of Flextronics, a leading electronics-manufacturing-services provider headquartered in San Jose, Calif. Marks sits on the boards of publicly traded SanDisk, Crocs, Schlumberger Limited and Sun Microsystems as well as nonprofits V Foundation for Cancer Research and the National Parks Conservation Association. He also teaches a course in global-supply-chain management at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

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Wall Street had a strong start to the week, after President-elect Barack Obama outlined his economic stimulus plans and indications that Congress will help Detroit's automakers stave off bankruptcy.

Over the weekend, Obama outlined plans to invest in infrastructure, energy and construction projects to spur the U.S. economy out of its year-long recession and create jobs. The proposals came after the Labor Department said the economy shed 533,000 jobs in November.

The major averages started the day higher, as the Dow Jones industrial average gained 269 points, or 3.1%, to 8,904, shortly into the session. The Standard & Poor's 500 was up 31 points, or 3.5%, to 907, while the Nasdaq added 43 points, or 2.9%, to 1,553.

According to TradeTheNews.com, Democrats in Congress and the Bush administration have agreed to the framework of a deal that provide loans to General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) and Chrysler, but not nearly the $34.0 billion the companies requested. Rather, the package is believed to be worth around $15.0 billion, and would help GM and Chrysler hold off bankruptcy until at least March, but may require management change. Shares of GM climbed 62 cents, or 15.2%, to $4.70 early Monday, while Ford gained 31 cents, or 11.4%, to $3.03. (See "Promises Of Rescue Come With Demands For Change.")

Still, the news out of corporate America was not all good over the weekend and Monday morning. More job cuts are on the way, from companies like 3M (nyse: MMM - news - people ) and Dow Chemical (nyse: DOW - news - people ).

3M announced over the weekend that it would cut 1,800 jobs in the fourth quarter, and on Monday morning the diversified company cut its 2008 earnings guidance to reflect the global economic slowdown. Shares of the Dow component were up 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.07, during the broad rally early Monday.

Dow Chemical said it will lay off 5,000 workers and close 20 plants in "high-cost" locations as part of its accelerated restructuring plans. The news sent Dow shares up $1.03, or 5.4%, to $20.03.

The outlook is also uncertain for MetLife, after the insurance company trimmed its fourth-quarter earnings guidance and said it could report a loss for the period. MetLife (nyse: MET - news - people ) still managed a $1.19, or 3.9%, gain, to $31.95.


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Weakened retailers threaten to leave consumers stranded with $100 million in worthless plastic.

Got a drawer full of forgotten or unused gift cards? Watch out.

Weakened and bankrupt retailers may leave consumers stranded with $100 million of worthless store gift cards this year, according to some estimates, though many stores are honoring their cards, at least for now.

Circuit City(nyse:CC - news people ) is one. It filed for bankruptcy earlier this month but is still allowed to sell new in-store cards and honor its existing cards, the outstanding dollar amount of which it wouldn't disclose.


Still, the electronics retailer is closing some stores, meaning gift card holders take their chances if they wait too long. Uncertainty is one reason overall gift card sales are expected to fall 6% this holiday season, to $24.9 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. More bad news for retailers, as fewer cards given as gifts could also mean potentially fewer people hitting those post-holiday sales.

TowerGroup, a Boston area research firm, estimates store-branded gift card sales will take a 14% hit this year as buyers flock to bank-branded or other types of cards that can be used more universally and for necessities like groceries and gasoline. Bank-branded cards are expected to see a 5.6% increase in sales this year.




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Detroit Plans A Plan

Business 2008. 11. 23. 02:16

OK, Detroit, you've got one more chance to make the sale.

After failing this week to convince Congress they deserve emergency financial assistance to avoid bankruptcy, U.S. carmakers have until Dec. 2 to come up with proof that they won't blow the money if government aid is provided.



House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said that before Congress votes on an aid package, "it is essential that we see some restructuring, some path to viability, from the auto industry."

In Congressional hearings this week, the CEOs of General Motors (nyse:GM - news people ), Ford Motor(nyse: F - news people ) and Chrysler insisted they had solid restructuring plans under way before consumer confidence collapsed along with auto sales over the past 60 days.

But putting a fresh shine on those same arguments and binding them into a fancy notebook won't be enough to convince reluctant lawmakers to free up federal aid. Like a car salesman tossing in free floor mats to close a deal, automakers will need to come up with some extra spiffs as a show of goodwill.

Cutting back on executive trappings--like the corporate jets Chrysler CEO Robert Nardelli, GM CEO G. Richard Wagoner and Ford CEO Alan Mulally flew down to D.C. for their Congressional hearing on Tuesday--will help. So will promises by the CEOs to forgo their multimillion dollar salaries and bonuses. Neither of these gestures will save their companies, but they will make an aid package easier to sell to taxpayers.

A spokesman for Pelosi says that the house speaker plans to send a letter in the next few days to the automakers to outline the types of things Democrats would like to see in their plans.



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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The board of directors of embattled U.S. automaker General Motors Corp is considering "all options" including bankruptcy, according to a report on the Wall Street Journal's website late Friday.

The paper, citing people familiar with the board's thinking, said the stance puts it in conflict with chief executive Rick Wagoner, who told lawmakers this week bankruptcy is not a viable alternative for the company.

GM, in a statement to the newspaper, said the board has discussed bankruptcy, but said the board did not view it as a "viable solution to the company's liquidity problems."

A GM spokesman told the paper that management is doing everything it can to avoid a bankruptcy filing.

The company's board has been convening by phone each Friday to discuss GM's liquidity situation, according to the paper.

Wagoner, along with chief executives from Ford Motor Co(nyse: F - news people ) , and Chrysler LLC, this week went to Capitol Hill to plea for $25 billion in aid from U.S. lawmakers.

On Thursday, Democratic lawmakers demanded that executives provide them with a plan of action in exchange for supporting any bailout.

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Even a company with billionaire clients can't stay financed in these lean times. The Yellowstone Club, one of the most exclusive resorts in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy this week.

The resort filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday. Court documents obtained by the Associated Press reveal that Yellowstone owes an estimated $343 million to creditors.

The club's precarious financial position undermines its brand as a playground for the nation's wealthiest. The gated resort community occupies 13,400 acres in the Southwest corner of Montana and counts Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) billionaire Bill Gates among its members. Its Web site lists custom residencies available with prices ranging from $4.8 million to $16 million. Amenities include plenty of prime ski slopes and a golf course.

Yellowstone had taken big loans as part of an aggressive strategy to grow the club beyond the Rocky Mountains. It bought a golf resort in Scotland, a castle in France and estates in Mexico and the Caribbean in recent years. The club is now backing away from the plan and trying to sell some of those properties.

The club's financial troubles brewed as its founders fought. Husband and wife team Tim and Edra Blixseth started the Yellowstone Club in 1999. They agreed to divorce at the end of 2006.

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At first, their divorce was billed as an amicable parting in the Wall Street Journal. The paper reported that they sat down with a bottle of wine and a legal pad to divide up their assets.

The split quickly took a more familiar route: many lawyers and millions of dollars in fees. As part of a divorce settlement, Edra received husband Tim's 50% ownership in the club in August. (See "Edra Blixseth Gets The Yellowstone Club.")

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GM: The Threat of Bankruptcy

GM's senior management, business experts, and some members of Congress think letting the automaker go Chapter 11 would be a disaster


Autos November 12, 2008, 12:01AM EST text size: TT

GM: The Threat of Bankruptcy

GM's senior management, business experts, and some members of Congress think letting the automaker go Chapter 11 would be a disaster

Click here to find out more!
http://images.businessweek.com/story/08/370/1111_gm.jpg

GM Chairman and CEO G. Richard Wagoner Jr. Getty Images

Over the past several days, while General Motors (GM) Chairman and Chief Executive G. Richard Wagoner Jr. has repeated his mantra that "bankruptcy is not an option," the specter of a Chapter 11 reorganization is circling GM's downtown Detroit headquarters like vultures.

When it reported its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 7, GM said that it may face cash reserve levels (BusinessWeek.com, 11/7/08) by the New Year that would put it at the threshold needed just to meet payroll and continue some level of normal operations.



It has already suspended most of its future product programs. It has stepped up the pressure on the White House and Congress, especially the Michigan caucus, to find a way to get government help. "The third-quarter results made it clear that, without government intervention, GM is headed for bankruptcy," Gimme Credit auto analyst Shelly Lombard said.

Circuit City Isn't a Model

Bankruptcy lawyers say the automaker could benefit from a prepackaged bankruptcy, which would be a reorganization that is worked out among the automaker's creditors before the case ever gets to a bankruptcy court judge. "It would be messy but ultimately could help the company restructure itself a lot faster," says Mark Bane, a partner at New York law firm Ropes & Gray.

The biggest obstacle to any bankruptcy is the lack of availability of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing, which is liquidity normally provided by banks and private equity firms that a company in bankruptcy needs to reorganize itself. Indeed, the question of bankruptcy has been on the minds of GM's top executives. On Nov. 6, GM North America President Troy Clarke told a gathering of auto suppliers that obtaining DIP financing would be "practically impossible" given the state of the credit markets and the size of GM's obligations. "But that's where the government could come in," says attorney Bane, "providing the liquidity GM would need to massively reorganize under Chapter 11."

The worst-case scenario for GM, say most experts, is a spontaneous Chapter 11, like the one filed by electronics retailer Circuit City (CCTYQ.PK) on Nov. 10. But a prepackaged filing could be set up to make sure that the vast majority of auto suppliers would continue to get paid on time.

Hoping for Liquidity

Others disagree. Kimberly Rodriguez, a partner at Grant Thornton, an accounting and management consulting firm that works with auto companies and suppliers, says bankruptcy is a "last resort." Rodriguez says that in better times GM and Ford (F) have provided liquidity to its biggest suppliers who would have otherwise been forced into Chapter 11, which is very messy and destructive. "The government could play that same role for GM, and it will be a lot more orderly," says Rodriguez.





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In this Sept. 29, 2008 file photo, of the exterior of Circuit City store in San Mateo, Calif. Circuit City Stores has filed for bankruptcy Monday, Nov. 10, 2008, about a week after it said it would close 20 percent of its stores. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, file)


In this Sept. 29, 2008 file photo, of the exterior of Circuit City store in San Mateo, Calif. Circuit City Stores has filed for bankruptcy Monday, Nov. 10, 2008, about a week after it said it would close 20 percent of its stores. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, file) (Paul Sakuma)

Richmond-based Circuit City, the nation's second largest electronics chain, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this morning, one week after announcing it would close one-fifth of its stores in a nationwide effort to cut costs and conserve cash in an increasingly grim retail climate.

With the holiday shopping season looming, Circuit City Stores Inc. said it planned to stay open for business while it developed and executed a "comprehensive corporate restructuring plan."

The bankruptcy filing was one of several developments today that reflect the ongoing economic downturn. Federal officials said they were expanding their effort to save insurance giant AIG from financial ruin; DHL announced it would discontinue its money-losing U.S. domestic services as of Jan. 30 to focus on European and international business; and mortgage giant Fannie Mae said it lost $29 billion in the third quarter and was nearly out of cash.

Circuit City said it hoped the bankruptcy would allow it to keep its stores stocked with merchandise in the crucial weeks before Christmas, by allowing the company to assure vendors they would be paid. Circuit City said it is asking the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Virginia to make wage and salary payments and honor returns, exchanges, gift cards and other customer programs.

The company pledged to streamline costs and create a more efficient operation. It negotiated a commitment for a $1.1 billion debtor-in-possession revolving credit facility to provide immediate liquidity and supplement working capital.

"The decision to restructure the business through a Chapter 11 filing should provide us with the opportunity to strengthen our balance sheet, create a more efficient expense structure and ultimately position the company to compete more effectively," James A. Marcum, vice chairman and acting president and chief executive officer, said in a news release. "Our stores remain fully operational, and our associates are focused on consistent and successful execution this holiday season and beyond."

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Circuit City has struggled in the face of competition from rival Best Buy Co. and others. It lost $320 million last year, its worst performance ever, and has not reported a quarterly profit since the first quarter of last fiscal year.

Last Monday, Circuit City announced it would close 155 U.S. stores and lay off nearly 20 percent of its workforce. The stores that will be shuttered are currently selling deeply discounted merchandise at liquidation sales.

Three stores each will close in Virginia and Maryland. The Virginia stores are located on Chain Bridge Road in McLean, Davidson Place in Manassas and Albermarle Square in Charlottesville; The Maryland stores are on Baltimore Avenue in Beltsville, 32nd Avenue in Marlow Heights and Pulaski Highway in Baltimore.

"We know there is never a good time for individuals to be impacted by decisions like these, and we deeply regret the effect this has on our associates," Marcum said.

The DHL announcement said the shipping and logistics giant would slash U.S. operating costs by more than 80 percent, cutting 9,500 employees from a U.S. payroll of about 13,000. The company will close all its U.S. ground hubs and reduce the number of stations it operates from 412 to 103.

"When we looked for efficiencies in the U.S. Express market, we decided to focus on what we do best as a company, and that's international shipping," John Mullen, global chief executive officer of the company, said in a statement. " . . . This is the right move for our U.S. Express operations given the current economic climate and for the long run."




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Morgan Stanley chief executive John Mack, left, and Citigroup chief executive Vikram Pandit leave a meeting at the Treasury Department yesterday.
Morgan Stanley chief executive John Mack, left, and Citigroup chief executive Vikram Pandit leave a meeting at the

Now, what was that about Hank Paulson having blown it?

How he foolishly let Lehman Brothers go under and started a chain reaction that quickly turned into a financial meltdown?

How he was so focused on his cockamamie plan to buy up distressed mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, instead of injecting capital into banks in exchange for shares?

How he and the other finance ministers were so way behind the curve this past weekend in failing to come up with a detailed and coordinated plan to restore confidence in financial markets?

The truth is we were going to have a serious financial crisis no matter what Paulson did or didn't do, thanks to the incredible ineptitude of Wall Street and the nation's financial regulators over the past few years, whether an insolvent and mismanaged investment bank was rescued or not. Lehman was the veritable straw that finally broke the back of the financial camel overloaded with debt. If it hadn't been Lehman, it would have been something else.

Since Lehman's failure, Paulson has moved faster, more aggressively and more deftly than any of his international counterparts in doing whatever was necessary to stabilize the financial system. Yesterday, he and his collaborators at the Fed and FDIC threw everything they had at it -- flooding the banking system with an unlimited supply of dollars, expanding deposit insurance, putting a guarantee on new bank debt, injecting capital into healthy banks, giving the Japanese the assurances they needed to rescue Morgan Stanley, and doing nothing to discourage free-spending Democrats from their plans to offer another big economic stimulus plan. 

The result: the biggest one-day rally on stock markets in 70 years.

I hope you won't think it petty to point out that some of the people who this past weekend were complaining that the Treasury secretary was being too timid in his response to the financial crisis were some of the same people who, three weeks ago, were complaining about his audacity in demanding a "$700 billion blank check." I know I speak for Gov. Sarah Palin and Joe Six-Packs everywhere in pleading that, for Pete's sake, let's cut the guy a little slack.

In putting several trillion dollars in government funds on the line, the country has now done just about everything that Wall Street could have asked to address the financial crisis. The question now, as John Kennedy might have put it, is what Wall Street is ready to do for its country. So far, the answer is not much.

After getting their closed-door briefing yesterday from Paulson on the government's latest initiatives, Wall Street's finest literally ran from the Treasury to their waiting limousines, bypassing a media scrum eager to convey any scrap of wisdom or insight.

Court reporters will tell you they can always tell the innocent from the guilty on these kinds of perp walks, and the Wall Street crowd yesterday looked particularly guilty, unable even to conjure up a soothing word to a nation fretting over its shrunken 401(k)s, or a simple thank you to taxpayers for having saved their bacon. Their silence and invisibility throughout this crisis attests to the moral and political bankruptcy of a financial elite that is the perfect match for the financial bankruptcy they have now visited upon their investors, their creditors and their customers.

After yesterday's "historic" meeting, we are told by industry apologists that we are supposed to be grateful to nine leading banks for having "volunteered" to accept additional capital from the Treasury, along with a government guarantee for newly issued bank debt, even if it means having to accept a dilution of existing shares and a few harmless restrictions on their operations.




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