'expect'에 해당되는 글 4건

  1. 2009.01.06 A Terrible Time For Carmakers by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.12.06 U.S. Layoffs Surge in November by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.11.27 New jobless claims drop from 16-year high by CEOinIRVINE
  4. 2008.11.22 Obama expected to tap Geithner for Treasury by CEOinIRVINE

Automakers finish 2008 on a bleak note. Expect 2009 to be worse.

When a bailout from the government is the best thing that's happened to your industry all year, you know there's a problem. For the car business, it may be the only good news for a while.

General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), Ford (nyse: F - news - people ), Honda (nyse: HMC - news - people ) and Toyota (nyse: TM - news - people ) all reported December sales declines of more than 30% from a year ago, finishing off a bleak year that saw industry-wide U.S. sales drop 16.7% from 2007, to 13.5 million vehicles.

With an economy that's expected to get worse before it gets better, many analysts see carmakers having an even tougher time of it in 2009. Some see sales plunging to 10 million units or fewer--nearly double the percentage drop of 2008.

GM and Chrysler, each of which just pocketed the first installment of its combined $17.4 billion emergency government loan, saw December sales drop 31% and 53%, respectively. Neither has the luxury of putting its government money to use building brand strength, making factory improvements or any other long-term initiative. Times are too dire for that.

"The money is just to stay alive for the next few weeks," says Jesse Toprak, an analyst at Edmunds.com.

Other depressing sales reports from December: a 32% drop at Ford, 37% at Toyota and 35% at Honda. To make matters worse, in order to push cars off the lots, five of the six major U.S. and Japanese automakers increased incentive spending from November, according to Edmunds.com, with Ford setting a monthly record of over $4,000 per vehicle.

Only Toyota kept incentive spending flat from November, though the $1,995 it spent per vehicle was still almost twice the rate in December 2007.

'Business' 카테고리의 다른 글

Nintendo's Low-Tech TV Is Long On Charm  (0) 2009.01.06
Netflix Goes Direct To LG  (0) 2009.01.06
Fixing IT  (0) 2008.12.30
'Gears Of War' Creator On Gaming's Future  (0) 2008.12.30
Street Slacks After Dow Deal Crumbles  (0) 2008.12.30
Posted by CEOinIRVINE
l

Government reported a much higher than expected 533,000 jobs evaporated, and the jobless rate reached 6.7%, from 6.5% in October.

In a worrisome sign of further weakening in the U.S. labor market, November saw the highest number of layoffs in the private sector in more than 32 years.

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in November, with 533,000 jobs lost. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, from an unrevised October figure of 6.5%. The prior October nonfarms payroll figure was revised to reflect a larger slide of 320,000, from the initially reported 240,000. Economists had been forecasting a substantially milder payrolls reduction of 350,000 jobs in November but a slightly higher 6.8% rate of joblessness. Employment declined in nearly all major industries, although health care continued to add jobs.

Equities recovered a bit at the markets' open, after plunging in response to the news during premarket trading. The Dow lost 0.7%, or 60 points, to 8,315; the S&P 500 fell 1.0%, or 9.2 points, to 836; and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.8%, or 13 points, to 1,432 during early trading. Bonds rallied, as investors fled to safe haven government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose to 2.61%, from 2.55% late Thursday. The return on the two-year note also increased, to 0.83, from 0.82.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, as recently announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (see “Congratulations, It's A Recession”), the number of unemployed persons increased by 2.7 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 1.7 percentage points with two-thirds of these losses sustained in the last 3 months.

Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, saw November's job losses as a sign that the economy is worsening at a faster than expected rate. "The labor market is in great trouble. Batten down the hatches because the ship is filling with water quick," he said. "The breadth of the job losses across industries is evidence that businesses all through the economy are reacting at the same time. We're seeing outsize job losses and will see more in the coming months because every business knows what's going on, and they're adjusting very rapidly."

The "outsize losses" are "the cost of technology," Naroff remarked, as instant access to information allows businesses of all sizes to react on a hair trigger to live economic data. However, he believes there is an upside: "The period of job losses may actually be shorter than in previous cycles as a result of the compression of the adjustment process where we all reacting at the same time."

The government also reported that wages rose 7 cents per hour, or 0.4%, in November. As unemployment continues to mount, it is likely that pay increases will be tempered in the months ahead.

The ADP Employer Services had a more coservative estimate of losses to the American job market Wednesday, when it reported that 250,000 jobs had disappeared during the month of November. (See “ADP Points Way Down On Payrolls Figures.") The Fed's Beige Book, which was released Wednesday, also reflected slumping economic activity. (See "Beige Book Bleak.")

Monday's official confirmation that the American economy has been contracting was not a huge surprise, considering the copious signs indicating a slowdown that had preceded it. Payroll employment has declined every month in 2008. Housing prices will have plunged an estimated 10.0% nationally this year, with more declines expected in 2009. U.S. gross domestic product first declined in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The confluence of worrying indicators has pushed consumer confidence to the steepest decline on record in October. This widespread pessimism has put the brakes on spending for everything from automobiles to holiday gifts, hurting businesses further. The competition for scarce dollars has lead to price cutting that some warn could point to a vicious deflationary cycle like that of the Great Depression, should a widespread drop in prices occur.




Posted by CEOinIRVINE
l

New jobless claims fell more than expected last week from a 16-year high, the government said Wednesday, though they remain at elevated levels due to the slowing economy.

The Labor Department reported that initial requests for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 529,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 543,000. That is lower than analysts' expectations of 537,000.

Despite the improved number, initial claims remain at recessionary levels. The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, rose to 518,000, its highest level since January 1983, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession.

The number of people continuing to claim unemployment insurance also dropped unexpectedly to 3.96 million, down from the previous week's 4.02 million, which was the highest level in 25 years. The labor market has grown by about half since 1983.

Economists consider jobless claims a timely, if volatile, sign of how fast companies are laying off workers. Employees who quit or are fired for cause are not eligible for benefits.

The economy has been hit hard in recent months by the housing slump and the broader financial crisis, which have led consumers and businesses to cut back on spending.

Higher unemployment could lead to a downward spiral, as laid-off workers are more likely to fall behind on mortgage payments and other debt. Those who remain employed also may become more conservative in their spending.




'Business' 카테고리의 다른 글

Can Obama Keep New Jobs at Home?  (0) 2008.11.27
China Takes An Ax To Rates  (0) 2008.11.27
Stocks build on recent rally with moderate gains  (0) 2008.11.27
Holding A Candle To Buffett  (0) 2008.11.27
Layoffs And Lawsuits  (0) 2008.11.27
Posted by CEOinIRVINE
l

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President-elect Barack Obama is expected to nominate New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner for Treasury Secretary.

Two sources close to the transition told CNN on Friday that Geithner is "on track" to be offered the post. An announcement is expected within days.

Geithner has played a central role in the government's efforts to wrangle the credit crisis, which has damaged markets and economies worldwide. While a number of those efforts have been controversial, Geithner remains a well-regarded figure from Wall Street to Washington.

In the wake of the Geithner news, stocks soared in late-day trade on Friday. The Dow closed nearly 500 points higher, pushing back above 8,000, after a dismal week.

Many believe the post of Treasury Secretary will be the most important in the next administration's cabinet. And indeed, Geithner would inherit one of the toughest jobs in Washington.

Geithner would be charged with restoring stability to the financial markets, the banking system and the housing sector through oversight of the controversial $700 billion financial rescue package, of which about half is still available for use at the discretion of the Treasury Secretary.

He would also be chief overseer of the international push to reform the regulatory regime for the financial system, which, like a sputtering lemon on the autobahn, has been severely outrun by 21st century developments in financial practices and products.

His overarching task: Ensure that what happened to world markets and economies in the fall of 2008 never happens again.

In the span of just two months, Americans and investors around the world have lost trillions in wealth, economies have fallen into recession like dominoes and the current prospects for recovery are insufficient to offer comfort. All the while, the foreclosure beat goes on, with roughly 165,000 more Americans losing their homes in September and October, bringing the total to 936,000 since August 2007.

Expect Geithner, if nominated, to roll up his sleeves and get busy even before his confirmation hearings with Congress, which could come before Inauguration Day.

Henry Paulson, the current Treasury Secretary, has indicated that he's reserved office space for his successor so that the Bush and Obama Treasury teams can work closely to insure a smooth transition during what has become the most tumultuous period for the U.S. financial system and economy in recent history.

What Geithner brings to the job

Often described as brilliant but modest, Geithner, 47, has held for the past five years one of the most powerful, if little known, jobs in the country as president of the New York Federal Reserve. His post at the New York Fed is essentially one of Wall Street watchdog. He also sits on the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the country's monetary policy.

Geithner was the U.S. Federal Reserve's point person on the rescue of Bear Stearns and American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) as well as in the failed talks to keep Lehman Brothers out of bankruptcy.

Lehman's demise is blamed by many for the freeze up in global credit markets that followed immediately afterwards.

He is typically cited as one of the few people on or off Wall Street who can begin to untangle the murky and unregulated market of credit default swaps, the so-called "side bets" that felled AIG. He has pushed for greater transparency and the creation of a central clearinghouse where credit default swaps could be recorded and secured. And, according to Fortune, he has gotten informal promises from banks that they would participate.

Prior to joining the Fed, he served as director of policy development and review at the International Monetary Fund. Before that, he was the under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs under Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.

His is an international background, which would come in handy at a time when G-20 governments have pledged to coordinate efforts to dig out their economies and markets. Geithner has lived in China, Japan, Thailand, India and East Africa. He got his bachelor's from Dartmouth in government and Asian studies and his master's in international economics and East Asian studies from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Indeed, during his years at the Treasury, he played a central role in the agency's handling of international crises. A profile of him in The New Republic asserted that without his influence "the '90s might have looked very different ... [His role made him] Treasury's first-responder to foreign-currency emergencies, like the kind that plagued East Asia throughout the decade."

Posted by CEOinIRVINE
l