People line up at job fair in Denver. (Getty Images)

Job cuts: What sectors are most at risk?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the impact of the economic crisis takes hold, employees from Wall Street to Main Street are feeling nervous about their jobs, and with good reason.

As of September, 760,000 jobs have already been lost this year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And a quarter of U.S. employers expect to make layoffs in the next 12 months, according to a recent report by consulting firm Watson Wyatt.

But which industries will suffer the most? Experts say certain sectors are more vulnerable to layoffs than others.

Housing: Jobs in the housing sector were the first to go when the mortgage meltdown took hold. But with the industry outlook at an all-time low, even more layoffs could follow.

Beyond mortgage lenders and homebuilders, jobs in commercial real-estate and at real-estate agencies will be the next to go, according to Dean Baker, director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C.

With the worst September for new home sales since 1981, "some of the big [real-estate] chains will do some consolidation," Baker said, "clearly you need fewer offices," Baker said.

Finance: Few in the financial sector are feeling secure about their positions. The latest employment figures from the Department of Labor show financial firms have eliminated an estimated 110,000 jobs over the past year through September, and experts say there will be even more losses in the months ahead.

As financial firms reorganize and consolidate, there are going to be a lot more layoffs, Baker said.

"Financial services firms have cut tremendously and I don't think that's over," echoed Lee Pinkowitz, associate professor at Georgetown University McDonough School of Business.

Retail: Before the credit crunch, retailers were already struggling with soft sales as high gas prices and falling home equity forced consumers to curtail non-essential purchases. Now retail sales are dismal heading into the holiday season. "This could be the weakest holiday hiring season since 2001," said John Challenger, chief executive of global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and that's not good for those employed in the retail industry.

"I doubt we'll see the pick up in seasonal hiring that we'd normally see," Pinkowitz said.

But while department stores and high-end boutiques may be particularly hard hit, discount retailers, like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) could fare well in the current climate, Challenger said. Wal-Mart is also the nation's largest private-sector employer, and could be a safe haven for those who work there.

Publishing: As consumers cut back, advertisers follow, and that means tough times for print publications, including newspapers and magazines, experts say.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, employment in the publishing industry has been contracting since the beginning of last year.

But the "grand decline" of jobs in the media industry, which also includes broadcast and digital media, began with the dot-com bust in 2001, noted Heidi Shierholz an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a research group based in Washington. Now a loss of jobs in traditional publishing is being exacerbated, in part, by the move away from print toward digital media.

"Every time you have a recession it pushes companies that have been holding on by their fingernails out of business," Challenger said. "It clears away an old generation of companies and I think we'll see that with print."

Autos: While sales at the Big Three automakers have fallen 20% this year and are likely to tumble further, trouble in the auto sector is not confined to manufacturing. All told, about 2 million Americans work in the industry.

While declining sales will likely lead to more job losses, those in "the tentacles of the auto industry" could be particularly hard hit in the coming months, Pinkowitz said, which includes those jobs at dealerships and suppliers.

Travel: Airlines have already announced layoffs across the board, but as consumers and businesses continue to scale back discretionary spending on travel, the implications go far beyond flying.

"All the industries under the umbrella of travel are going to be at risk" Challenger said, including rental cars, hotels and even restaurants.

If people are cutting back, travel and leisure activities are the easiest things to do without, explained Baker. Big restaurant chains will close locations, he said, which means eliminating many wait staff and service jobs, while some smaller restaurants will be forced out of business entirely.

But despite the mostly doom-and-gloom predictions, some say there are some bright spots ahead for American workers.

"Even if you're in an industry where there has been some job downturns, there still can be some opportunities," said Kimberly Bishop, vice chairman of Chicago-based executive search firm Slayton Search Partners.

Bishop suggests focusing on those skills and experiences that can translate beyond the industry in which you work. There are certain roles that every organization needs, she said, and you may be able to fulfill that role in another industry that has more promise. 

When the dot-com and housing bubbles burst, it was easy to see what types of jobs would disappear. But these days as nervous lenders cower and credit contracts, virtually every industry is likely to be scathed in the widely predicted downturn starting this autumn. Nearly every business relies on credit to operate—just as they need customers to have spending power.

With lending trimmed, and companies and consumers tightening their belts (BusinessWeek, 10/9/08), jobs will be cut across broad swaths of the economy, from the tech sector to investment banking, and from manufacturing to soft drinks.

The four-week moving average of U.S. jobless claims hit its highest point in seven years, the Labor Dept. reported on Oct. 20. The average number of new jobless claims rose to 483,250 for the week ended Oct. 11, the highest since 2001. September's unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%, but economists generally predict the labor picture will deteriorate in coming months.

"Bottom Performers" Are Vulnerable

"This is an equal-opportunity recession," says Cathy Paige, a vice-president of Manpower (MAN), a temporary staffing firm that is experiencing softening demand from clients. "Everyone is feeling it."

In any industry, the workers most vulnerable to layoffs are "bottom performers," says Nancy Albertini, chairman of Albertini Group, an executive search firm based in Dallas. "Companies will say, 'We've been meaning to eliminate these,'" she says. After trimming poor performers, companies will cut in areas not considered essential to operations, such as marketing, communications, and human resources. After these categories, any position is fair game, Albertini says, depending on the industry. What started in the financial sector with the failures of Bear Stearnsand then Lehman Brothers, is spreading to other industries. Housing, sure, but technology is no longer immune, and consumer brands have begun culling employee ranks.

Silicon Valley has already made a wave of announcements. Yahoo (YHOO) is expected to announce job cuts this week, possibly on Oct. 21 when the company releases its quarterly earnings report. Yahoo eliminated 1,000 positions in January. Earlier this month, eBay (EBAY) announced it was laying off 10% of its 16,000 workers. Last month, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) announced it would lay off 24,600 workers over the next three years, though it plans to hire another 12,300 as part of its restructuring since purchasing Electronic Data Systems (EDS) in August. Meanwhile, Google (GOOG) has been trimming its contractor workforce but expanding in other areas.