'optimism'에 해당되는 글 2건

  1. 2008.12.01 Ten Reasons For Some Economic Optimism by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.11.12 Oil falls to $60 as China spending optimism wanes by CEOinIRVINE 1

Dwelling too much on the doldrums violates the holiday spirit. Yes, the economy is in bad shape, very likely entering or already in a painful recession. But it's not all bad. No, really.

At the pump, oil price deflation is also known as cheaper gas. For those who have been priced out of the housing market for a decade, the imploding market offers hope they'll someday be able to buy.


Still, after decades of a debt-fueled binge, the American consumer is fearful and grumpy. The Conference Board estimates that the average household is going to spend about 10% less for Christmas gifts this year, down to $418 from $471 in 2007. That means consumption, the biggest part of the country's gross domestic product, is likely to fall precipitously in the fourth quarter. But then what?

"You have to ask the question: How long will this total lack of confidence last?" says Joel Naroff, the chief economist for TD Bank. "Can consumers remain irrationally despondent for an extended period of time?"

Naroff, picked in October by Bloomberg News as the year's top economic forecaster, has been looking at consumer confidence since it started to slip in the summer, and he thinks it's too pessimistic and will snap back. It's the same intuition that had Naroff worried about how badly misaligned the housing markets were when he called the downturn before many others.

History suggests Americans just don't stay depressed for long, he says. Even with economists talking of unemployment rising to 8% or 9% from the current level of 6.5%, most people and businesses will muddle through. "You go out eight months from now. You're in May, June, July. People discover they still have their jobs. Businesses have realized that while conditions aren't great, they're not going to fold," says Naroff, "They ask, 'Why am I behaving as if everything is going to collapse tomorrow?' And they come to the conclusion it's not, and that's when they start spending."




Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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Oil prices fell to near an 18-month low of $60 a barrel Tuesday as hopes waned that a huge Chinese spending plan will do much to avert a prolonged slowdown in the global economy.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down $2.27 to $60.14 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract overnight rose $1.37 to settle at $62.41.

In London, December Brent crude fell $2.13 to $56.95 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil closed at $60.77 on Nov. 6, the lowest closing price since March 2007, and has fallen about 59 percent since reaching a record $147.27 in mid-July.

Analyst Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland noted the high volatility accompanying falling prices.

While the Nymex contract is now trading near first-half 2007 prices, the difference then between daily highs and lows was around $1.50 a barrel, while now the average daily range is around $5.50 a barrel with recent daily peaks at $9.50, Jakob said.

Oil prices and stock markets jumped Monday after China said it planned to spend $586 billion in a bid to spur economic growth. But pessimism soon returned as investors focused again on a swooning U.S. economy, which faces its worst recession in decades.

Most Asian and European stock markets fell Tuesday, following the lead of the Dow Jones industrials average, which dropped 0.8 percent Monday. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index slid 3 percent Tuesday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 2.9 percent, while London's FTSE and Germany's DAX indexes were both down around 2 percent.

"The market is realizing that package can't prevent us from sliding into the mess we're heading toward," said Toby Hassall, an analyst with Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney. "The economic outlook is pretty bleak."

Investors are grappling with how bad the recession in the U.S. could be, as government statistics and company results reflect an abrupt slowdown in consumer demand, bank lending and investment during the second half of the year.

Crude demand from the U.S., the world's largest consumer of energy, is a key driver of oil prices.

"We saw extremely poor car sales and pretty shocking unemployment numbers from the U.S. last week," Hassall said. "It wouldn't surprise me if oil edged down toward $50."

U.S. car sales fell to a 25-year low in October while the unemployment rate shot to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent last month.

Militants in Nigeria on Monday resumed attacks on the country's oil installations. The military said it killed eight people while guarding a facility in the oil-rich south of the country.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the region's main militant umbrella group, said it wasn't involved in any fighting. The military didn't say which militant faction the dead fighters represented.

Militants frequently attack oil facilities, seeking to hobble Africa's biggest petroleum industry and force Nigeria's federal government to send more oil funds to the southern states where the crude is pumped.

"The focus of the market has really been on the demand side," Hassall said. "I'd be surprised if supply side issues in Nigeria could change the mood of the market."

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 3.80 cents to $1.97 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 3.80 cents to $1.33 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery slid 3.9 cents to $7.21 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Associated Press writer Alex Kennedy in Singapore contributed to this report.




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