In my last column, I argued that all infrastructure investment
is not the same. If we are to embark on massive investments to
stimulate the economy, we should do so with an eye toward producing
benefits in the long term. And I argued that education is one such
investment.
This assertion generated a lot of pushback from
people who feel passionately that any stimulus package should focus on
creating jobs right now. Clearly that's important, but it is also not a
long-term fix, particularly when the jobs to be created are not likely
to be the high-quality, long-term career positions that make for a
successful economy. From this perspective, investing in human capital
is the way to go. This is not just opinion--there is a lot that we know
about the returns to investing in human capital, and we know more and
more all the time about which investments yield good returns.
The most essential reading on this topic is The Race Between Education and Technology,
by Claudia Golden and Lawrence Katz. Goldin and Katz give a broad
historical view of the role of education in economic growth in the U.S.
They make the case that, after a century of leading the world in
supplying the educated workers needed to serve technology, the U.S. has
fallen behind in education. There is other important research by James
Heckman of the University of Chicago and Arthur Rolnick of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota on the returns to early childhood education.
Any
discussion of investments in education with the goal of preparing the
workforce of the future needs to begin in early childhood. In the first
five years of life, children undergo tremendous development. If
children receive support for growth in language, development of motor
skills, social skills and emotional support, they are more likely to
succeed in school subsequently and to later contribute to society.
Absent that kind of early development, children are more likely to drop
out of school, commit crimes and require support from the welfare
system. These are the costs that society bears.
Estimates are
that early childhood education programs that are focused on children at
risk produce returns of as much as 7%-16%, a large portion of which are
social returns. This is a good investment. Some of these returns will
be lost if the K-12 education system is broken and some of the
disappointing results on the benefits of Head Start programs are due to
deficiencies in the school systems that the children encounter
subsequently. Clearly more has to be done at this level.
Education, as we all know, is a cumulative process. Thus,
calling for a highly educated workforce implies, almost by definition,
that individuals receive both early childhood development and a solid
education from kindergarten on up. Programs like Head Start are
important, but without a strong K-12 education that builds upon those
accomplishments, students will not be ready to move on to college
education.
Unfortunately, as Goldin and Katz document, we have
faltered--and even fallen behind--in K-12 education by many measures.
One example is that the secondary school graduation rate has declined
significantly in the last 25 years.