'slump'에 해당되는 글 3건

  1. 2008.12.27 Japan factory output in record slump; deflation looms by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.12.11 No Relief In China For Boeing, Airbus by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.11.30 Serious Slump Spurs Discounts by CEOinIRVINE


* Industrial output drops a record 8.1 percent

* Consumer inflation slows to 1 percent, below forecast


* Economics Minister doubts quantitative easing will work

* Wage data shows job market shrinking

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Japan's factories slashed output at a record pace in November in the face of a global economic slump, and core inflation fell faster than forecast, putting the country on course for its second spell of deflation this decade.

With collapsing export orders pummelling manufacturers, the job market is shrinking, threatening to crush consumption and depress prices barely six months after the narrowest measure of consumer inflation popped above zero.

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Boeing and Airbus can give up any hope that Chinese demand might help offset their global sales slump. The country's aviation industry regulator has advised mainland airlines to cancel or postpone aircraft deliveries in 2009, as carriers struggle with a decline in air travel demand. Clamoring for government handouts, the airlines will listen, though they may have a hard time extracting concessions from suppliers.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China released guidelines Wednesday advising airlines to cancel or delay delivery of purchased aircraft in 2009. It also asked airlines to retire old aircraft and said it will not consider any new airline applications until 2010, according to a statement. The regulator encouraged further alliances and consolidation.

The once booming Chinese airline sector is suffering from overcapacity amid a slump in travel that started in the second half of 2008 as the economy began to cool. The airlines also have suffered from a wave of steep fuel-hedging losses, as oil plunged below $50 a barrel from over $140 a barrel during the summer.

Despite the government's encouragement, it is unclear how many aircraft orders can be canceled or postponed. "I don't think too much flexibility will be given to the airlines because Boeing and Airbus are also facing declining orders" in the U.S. and Europe, said Kelvin Lau, Hong Kong-based airline analyst for Daiwa Securities. "If they allow one airline to defer delivery, many more will want to do the same."

But Boeing (nyse: BA - news - people ) might allow more leeway than its archrival Airbus, a unit of EADS (other-otc: EADSY - news - people ), as the U.S. giant is facing difficulty meeting delivery schedules due to a labor strike that ended in November, he added.

Guotai Junan Securities analyst Martin Wang said the regulator's announcement may not have much impact without incentives, and noted that the commercial decisions remain in the airlines' hands. Delivery cancellations can also be expensive, as airlines typically put up in advance up to 30% of the purchase price, Lau said. Wang estimated penalties for contract changes may run 5% to 10% of the contract price.

Chinese airlines are on course to lose big this year. Beijing injected 3 billion yuan ($437.0 million) in November into China Southern Airlines (nyse: ZNH - news - people ), which Wang expects to post a loss of nearly 1 billion yuan ($145.7 million) for 2008. Wang and Lau expect China Eastern Airlines (nyse: CEA - news - people ) to get a similar government aid package--Wang estimates it is on track to post a loss of over 3 billion yuan ($437.0 million) for the year. Air China (other-otc: AIRYY - news - people ) is in the best shape of the three big Chinese airlines and may get by without aid.

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Looking for an upside to the downturn? Check out the auto showrooms.

If you qualify for a car loan (credit score above 500 and proof of employment), deals can be had. Thank the recession, the meltdown of Detroit's Big Three and the downward spiral in consumer confidence.

"If you are a bargain hunter, there has never been a better time," said Philip Reed, senior consumer advice editor for Edmunds, which specializes in consumer automotive information. "If it gets any better, they will be giving cars away. In the cases we are looking at, it's 25 to 30 percent off sticker price."

But before you run out, be warned: There are no giveaways. And if you're looking real cheap, you'll be hard pressed to find a car below $10,000 -- except for a bare-bones Nissan Versa without air conditioning. Even your basic Toyota Yaris -- known as a "price leader" designed to draw customers -- runs $11,390 on the Darcars Toyota Silver Spring lot.

The best deals go to those who can pay cash. If you are borrowing at zero percent interest, which is making a comeback, most dealers will not give you as big a break on price because the zero-interest loan is looked upon as the bargain.

"It all comes down to how much you finance," said Ethan Rossignol, general sales manager at Darcars Toyota Silver Spring. For those borrowing money, a credit score over 700 will probably bring an interest rate in the 5 or 6 percent range, said Al Toueg, general sales manager at Buick Pontiac GMC on Nicholson Lane in Rockville, part of the Fitzgerald Automalls network. The lower your credit score, the higher the interest rate. A credit score of around 600 might cost the buyer an annual interest rate of 8 or 9 percent. People in the 500 range will have trouble getting approved.

With car sales expected to hit 13 million this year compared with 16 million last year, dealers have thrown out the book on showroom economics. Profit margins, which is the amount they keep on each car, are thin or almost nonexistent.

The margin is normally someplace between what they pay for the car ("invoice price") and what they would like you to pay for the car ("sticker price" or "manufacturer's suggested retail price-MSRP"). That margin can range from $300 on a Toyota Corolla to a few thousand on GMC's lumbering Denali sport-utility vehicle.

Darcars' Rossignol swears he is losing money on some small cars.

Take a Toyota Corolla, one of the hottest selling cars in the country. Rossignol sells a Corolla with power locks and windows, an automatic transmission and air conditioning. Its invoice price is $16,522. The MSRP is $17,865, which is what Toyota suggested he get for it. That would have given him a $1,300 profit. The car's price: $14,790. Even if the manufacturer gives him some extra cash for the Corolla -- known as "dealer cash" -- it's likely that Rossignol will make little or nothing on the sale. A year ago the car would have probably fetched more than its $16,522 invoice.

"Six months ago, you had zero incentives," Rossignol said. "Now you have a choice of $1,000 customer cash or zero percent financing. Incentives from the manufacturer is something that we have never seen. And Toyota has never, ever put zero percent [interest rates on loans] like it just did. Now we have zero [percent loans] on 12 models."

General Motors, which says it will soon fail if it doesn't get billions in government loans, is knocking thousands off its prices to bring in customers. The bigger the car, the bigger the deal.

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