'this year'에 해당되는 글 2건

  1. 2008.12.15 Report: Saudi's Prince Alwaleed lost $4B this year by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.12.12 A Ruble-Rousing Depreciation by CEOinIRVINE

The Saudi prince who owns a double-decker "flying palace" and recently raised his bet on Citigroup lost $4 billion in the past year, according to a published report Sunday, showing that even the ultra-rich are getting pinched by the global financial crisis.

The pain is relative, of course. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal remains the world's richest Arab with a net worth of about $17 billion as of Dec. 2, Dubai-based magazine Arabian Business reported in its annual ranking. That is nearly twice as much as the second-richest on the list, but a considerable drop from the $21 billion the magazine said the prince was worth a year ago.

Arabian Business said it based its figure on a direct review of the prince's holdings and a face-to-face meeting with the man who's been dubbed "the Arabian Warren Buffett."

An official at Kingdom Holding Co., Alwaleed's investment company, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Alwaleed last month announced he would raise his stake in ailing banking giant Citi to 5 percent from less than 4 percent. The move has failed to significantly boost the bank's share price.

The Saudi royal's controlling stake in Kingdom Holding, which invests in well-known companies such as computer maker Apple Inc. and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., accounts for nearly $8 billion of his wealth, the magazine said.

Alwaleed also owns Middle East media company Rotana Holding, and controls more than $3 billion worth of real estate, including a 124 acre personal resort complete with a private zoo.

And then there's the Airbus A380 "superjumbo" jet Alwaleed bought and had outfitted for his personal use. It's valued at $330 million -- a little less than the price tag for his other two jetliners combined.

No. 2 on the list with $9.6 billion is Nasser al-Kharafi, a Kuwaiti businessman who holds the Middle East franchise for chains such as KFC, Hardee's and Pizza Hut. He's also the largest shareholder of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc.

Another prominent name on the list: the Bin Laden family, which makes its money in the construction business. Arabian Business puts the net worth of the clan, which has tried to distance itself from its most notorious member, at $7.2 billion -- good for seventh place.

Altogether, the magazine said the world's 50 richest Arabs lost a combined $25 billion amid the global meltdown, much of it since the end of summer like investors elsewhere.

"The surprise is how much money everyone has lost," Anil Bhoyrul, editorial director of Arabian Business publisher ITP Executive Publishing Ltd., said in an interview. "The list we published is a lot different than the list we originally put together only a few months ago."

Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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I recently spent a few days in Moscow meeting with a variety of economic and financial officials and analysts, both in the public and private sector.

Until July of this year, Russia was rosy: It was growing at an annual rate close to 8%; oil prices were peaking at $140 a barrel; the country was running a large fiscal and current account surplus; it had a war chest of $600 billion-plus of foreign reserves; and its stock market, bond markets and currency values were strong. Policy makers were thinking of turning the ruble into a major reserve currency, at least for the CIS bloc.

This economic and financial success led Russia to flex its geopolitical muscle, challenging the U.S. on a number of political and military issues and using its energy power as an instrument of foreign policy in its relations with the Eurozone and its former Soviet neighbors. The peak of this resurgence of the Russian bear came during the August war with Georgia, when Russia flaunted its military power as the U.S. looked impotent in its inability to defend an ally.

But what a difference a short time makes. Six months later, Russia is in deep economic and financial trouble.

The S&P has just announced that it has lowered Russia's foreign-currency credit rating by one notch from BBB+ to BBB. In less than six months, oil prices have fallen to under $50 a barrel (from the $140-plus peak of July). The stock market has fallen by over 60%, and on some days it has been shut down to prevent a free-fall. The current account surplus has turned into a near deficit and a sure deficit by 2009. The country has experienced a capital flight of over $100 billion and has lost about $150 billion of foreign reserves (now down to about a $450 billion level). It is facing massive external debt-financing problems as its banks financed their lending with foreign currency borrowings and its corporate firms financed massive expansion with foreign currency debt. It is now desperately trying to prevent a sharp depreciation of its currency by aggressive foreign exchange intervention. It may face a large fiscal deficit (2% of GDP) next year, and its GDP growth rate is sharply slowing down, leading the World Bank to predict a rate of only 3% in 2009--with leading local analysts predicting an actual recession (negative growth of as much as -2%) in 2009. (See the recent analysis by RGE's Rachel Ziemba for more on the risks of a hard landing in Russia.)

Given this sudden change in Russian fortunes, there are several key policy issues that the authorities need to deal with. Of course, given the external shocks (terms of trade worsening and a sudden stop of capital and credit), it was important to use the buffer of foreign reserves to avoid a bank run by providing liquidity and capital to banks--and by providing a fiscal stimulus to a country that is sharply slowing down.

But the key unresolved policy issue is what to do with the exchange rate. Until recently, Russia was on an effective basket peg (with 55% for the dollar and a 45% weight for the euro). But with oil prices now down over 60% from the peak of the summer, and with incipient current account and fiscal deficits and a likely recession in 2009, the currency is obviously overvalued. A reasonable estimate of the needed exchange-rate depreciation--with oil at about $50 a barrel in 2009--is 25%. But until recently, the authorities resisted the needed depreciation through aggressive foreign exchange intervention.

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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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