Blagojevich Arrest Muddies Illinois Political Waters

Blagojevich Arrest Muddies Illinois Political Waters

The arrest of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich on corruption charges has far reaching political implications. (Amanda Rivkin/AFP/Getty Images)

The news that Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) has been taken into custody on charges of seeking bribes in exchange for an appointment to the Senate (among other allegations) fundamentally reshapes the Illinois political landscape.

The impact of Blagojevich's arrest is far-reaching, with tentacles into the Senate, governor's mansion and the national political scene.

The most obvious fallout is in the race for the seat vacated earlier this month by President-elect Barack Obama. Under state law, Blagojevich is given total authority to replace Obama -- an authority he allegedly was using as collateral to extract concessions from those interested in the seat.

As long as Blagojevich remains governor -- and whether he will stay in office remains to be seen -- he retains the power to appoint the next senator. But, if an appointment from Blagojevich was problematic before (due to the long-running investigation into his Administration on other corruption charges) it is entirely tainted now.

According to conversations with several Chicago political sharps, the thinking now is that if Blagojevich makes the appointment, the only possible pick is a caretaker with an unimpeachable record on ethics who will hold the seat for two years and then step aside in 2010.

It's nearly impossible to imagine that anyone Blagojevich picks at this point would be able to run for a full term 2010 as they would immediately be labeled as the hand-picked choice of a scandal-tarred governor.

Given those realities, the new frontrunner for the appointment could well wind up being Secretary of State Jesse White who had been floated in the past as a safe -- and inoffensive -- pick. People like Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. and former congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth may now have to turn their attention to the 2010 open seat as it seems increasingly unlikely that either of them would get (or want) an appointment from Blagojevich.

In the event Blagojevich resigns in the coming days, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, a Democrat, would step into the job and would be tasked with the appointment. If that happens, all bets are off and everyone is back in the mix.

In terms of the gubernatorial race, it now seems increasingly unlikely that Blagojevich will run for a third term in 2010. (Yes, we realize how insane that last sentence sounds but remember that Blagojevich was considering a reelection bid with job approval numbers in the mid teens.)

Assuming the seat is open, expect a contested primary fight between state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, state Comptroller Dan Hynes and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulas -- all three of whom were considering the race before today's news. Madigan had been prominently mentioned as a possible appointee to the Senate seat but apparently was far more interested in running for governor.

In terms of Blagojevich's arrest on national politics, remember that House Minority Leader John Boehner released a campaign memo earlier this week in which he makes clear that his party will push the idea of a culture of corruption within the Democratic party over the next few years.

Blagojevich, although a governor, spent six years in the House and, as a result, has ties to a number of sitting members. Expect House Republicans to use his arrest as a cudgel against their Democratic colleagues over the coming weeks.

This is a developing story with all sorts of twists and turns. We'll be following it closely. Stay tuned.