'Perfect storm' could give Dems 'magic 60' in Senate

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- In the face of an economy in crisis and a deeply unpopular president, some analysts believe the situation is ripe to give Democrats a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate in November.

Analysts say Democrats may control the Senate after the November election.

It's "the perfect storm," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "You've got Republican voters angry at Republicans, many Americans just petrified about the future...wanting change. And right now change appears to be coming in the form of Democrats."

Of the 35 Senate seats on the line this year, 23 are held by Republicans. Five Republican senators are retiring: Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Wayne Allard of Colorado, John Warner of Virginia, Larry Craig of Idaho and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

Democrats control the Senate. Although it's split evenly with 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans, two independents -- Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut -- caucus with the Democrats.

Winning a filibuster-proof majority of 60 Senate seats, commonly called the "magic 60," would virtually prevent Republicans from blocking legislation on the Senate floor.

The last time either party had this ability was in the 95th Congress of 1977-1979, when Democrats held 61 seats during President Jimmy Carter's administration. Carter faced concerns similar to those today -- economic instability, inflation and a 7.5 percent unemployment rate.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Democrats have a good shot at reaching a 60-seat majority in November, a possibility he all but ruled out earlier this year.

"The fundamentals of this election year could not be more Democratic," Sabato said. "You've got a terrible economy, a deeply unpopular president and an unpopular war. You put those elements together and it's going to produce a Democratic victory. ... The only question is, what size?"

A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey found that Americans blame Republicans by a 2 to 1 ratio over Democrats for the financial meltdown.

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Forty-seven percent of those questioned found Republicans more responsible for the problems facing the financial institutions; 24 percent said Democrats were more responsible.

Although Democrats say it's too early to predict whether they will get 60 Senate seats, they acknowledge that the focus on the economy has given them a bounce across the map.

"The economy was already the No. 1 issue in voter's minds," said Matthew Miller, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "What the crisis did was focus attention like a laser on the fact that Republican economic policies have crippled the economy."

But, the next question is: Will Democrats need 60 or 61 seats to effectively block the Republican Party?

Some believe Democrats may actually need 61 seats in order to have a majority because of the "Lieberman factor."

"Not every Democrat will be with them on every measure and every bill," Rothenberg said.

Lieberman turned independent after being defeated in Connecticut's 2006 Democratic primary, but later went on to win the general election. He has been at odds with the Democratic Party -- particularly for his support of Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain and the Iraq War.

But, according to a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Republicans are confident that they will, at the very least, keep their current seats.

"We feel relatively good about what is going to happen this year," said Rebecca Fisher, the communications director for the GOP committee. "We are very confident that we are going to defend our incumbents and a good shot at getting a majority of our open seats."

Pointing to low congressional approval ratings, Fisher said it's still uncertain which party will bear the brunt of the economic crisis.

"I think that people are generally unhappy with what's going on in Congress and [it's] not specifically aimed at one party," Fisher said.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday found 76 percent of the registered voters questioned disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job; only 23 percent said they approve.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties get fairly low approval ratings for their job performance in Congress. Only 34 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the way Democratic leaders are handling their jobs, while 64 percent disapprove; only 27 percent approve of Republican leaders' job handling while 71 percent disapprove.

Rothenberg says Republicans will likely bear the brunt of the economic crisis despite the bleak assessment of Congress as a whole.

"Maybe Americans will say it isn't Republicans' fault," Rothenberg said. "It's possible that Republican prospects could improve over the next month, but if they don't this year will be as bad as 2006 for the Republicans and worse in Senate races."

In 2006, Republicans lost six seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House, shifting the majority to the Democratic Party.

Rothenberg and Sabato agree that Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire are all but a lock for Democrats. With Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens on trial on corruption charges, Alaska could go to Democrats as well.

"Minnesota, Mississippi, and Kentucky are the three states most likely to determine whether Democrats get to 60," Rothenberg said, adding the unexpectedly tight race in North Carolina between incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan could turn out detrimental for Republicans as well.

Both parties are feeling charged from the highly contested race for the White House between Sen. Barack Obama and McCain. But Democrats and Republicans agree the outcome of the Senate elections could come down to how many people come out to vote.