A Chance To Double Your Money

A Chance To Double Your Money
Jerry Flint, 10.13.08, 6:00 AM ET

More From Jerry Flint

 

"What's good for America is good for GM, and vise versa."

Charlie Wilson of General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) made that comment long ago. He is always misquoted, but that is what he said. It was true then, but what about today?

Will it be good for America if General Motors does not survive, if GM goes bankrupt, if GM goes out of business?

It could happen. From what we know, GM could run out of cash by the middle of next year.

Over the next days, we will hear about more GM plant closings, more layoffs and more dealer failings. We will also hear more about talks of a most unlikely merger with Chrysler.

Not only is the stock market scaring off buyers, but dealers are also having a hard time getting financing for those people still willing to buy a new car. The last thing GM--or any car company--needs is talk that GM is on the verge of bankruptcy. That will make car sales collapse even more as word of this spreads.

No one wants to by a new car from a company that might not be there tomorrow. That kills resale value and leaves consumers worrying about the warranty and the availability of repair parts. I would not expect a bankrupt car company to come back in this country--ever. Do you see any new Studebakers around? Any Packards or Cords?

A collapse of GM would cause the direct and collateral loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs--in assembly plants, parts plants, showrooms and more. Yes, in Darwinian capitalism, other auto companies would eventually pick up the slack in the workplace and marketplace. Would this be good for America right now?

This nervous talk does not mean that GM is going to go bankrupt. Would Japan allow Toyota (nyse: TM - news - people ) to go down? Would Germany allow Volkswagen (other-otc: VLKAF.PK - news - people ) to collapse? And does America owe something to GM?

I have a long memory. I remember World War II, when the president of GM--his name was William Knudsen--headed the successful effort to build our great war production machine. GM helped save America then.

I remember after 9/11 when GM brought out the "no interest" car loan to "keep America rolling" through that terrible shock.

I remember a day nearly 30 years ago when our government said it would not let the much smaller Chrysler go down, and guaranteed its loans, helped save Chrysler and made a profit on it.

I remember the great GM pay, pensions, health care and dividends that made life good for millions of Americans.

And I remember the great cars.

Maybe none of this is important today.

We know the Treasury Secretary and the head of the Federal Reserve and the president will spend anything--a trillion dollars--to save an insurance company and banks. Will they sit back and watch the destruction of the American auto industry?

Some facts: GM's money crisis is real and could bankrupt the company in months--especially if dealers cannot get financing for their inventories and car buyers--but that does not mean GM will go out of business.

GM has huge and still successful operations in Europe, in Brazil, in China. The company could restructure and separate its sick American operation from these healthier parts, allowing the company to continue abroad until a better day comes.

The government could guarantee loans as it did for Chrysler. The cost would be a fraction of the bailout of AIG (nyse: AIG - news - people )--and there is a good chance it would cost nothing.

It is even possible that someone would buy the company--say, Toyota of Japan. While I think that it would be a disaster, it is also possible that GM will merge with Chrysler, which would also be a big mistake.

Going out of business is not likely, and bankruptcy is now a political decision. General Motors certainly has strengths. For starters, it is still the largest automaker in the U.S. with more than 20% of the business.

GM trucks, the full-sized Chevy and GMC pickups and the truck-based sport utility vehicles like the Tahoe and Suburban are among the best in the world. Yes, these vehicles do not deliver great gas mileage, but oil prices have come way down since this summer's $145 per barrel in the spot market, and I trust that gasoline prices will work their way lower, too.

The newest GM cars can now hold their own with all foreign competition. I am talking about vehicles such as the Cadillac CTS, the Chevy Malibu and the Corvette ZR1 supercar. I predict the upcoming Chevrolet Camaro will be a winner, too. The "base" model Camaro promises decent fuel economy and a 300 horsepower V-6 as the standard engine. This is not a "secretary's car."

The coming Chevy Volt just may open the way to electric cars. Once great divisions like Pontiac and Buick are merely hanging on, but they are not dead yet, and GM has several new, and potentially, exciting vehicles in the works.

If there is a great weakness at GM, it is management. For too many years GM's financially oriented managers ignored or mishandled the car business. I call it arrogance matched by ignorance. On the other hand, these executives were not thieves. They did not enrich themselves like the leaders of the financial service companies that the government is so eager to rescue. GM's managers just did not understand why Americans love their cars.

If the government is willing to help, to give loan guarantees to General Motors, it should ask if this management could lead the company out of its depression, as Lee Iacocca led Chrysler, as George Romney led American Motors.

When GM stock closed below $5 a share last Thursday, its market value fell to $2.7 billion, far less than the market capital of some Internet start-ups during the market bubble a decade ago. Remember when Chrysler was struggling in the early 1980s and trading at $3 per share (not adjusted for subsequent splits)? Investors who took a chance in that company more than doubled their money in a short period.

If the country decides it does not need GM, we should remember Percy Bysshe Shelley's poem.