Alternate Universe: No Bailout For GM

It's not nice to say, but if GM collapses, it could be a good thing for some companies, states and workers.

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I do not expect General Motors to shut its doors this month, next month or any month in the near future. Instead, I fully expect our Federal government, lame duck Congress or "new duck" Congress will write the checks to keep GM in business--at least for now.

It seems fair to ask what would happen if taxpayers do not rescue General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ). I suspect that if Americans had a vote, they would turn down GM. The truth is that our people now buy more cars with foreign nameplates than with American nameplates. Another reality: Parts of the country would prosper if GM fell.

Of course, a GM collapse would be bad news for GM workers who would lose their jobs. Factoring in all the layoffs already planned and those to come, I estimate the number would be close to 75,000, with most of those job losses in Michigan and other Rust Belt states with GM plants. As far as the pensioners go, GM's pension fund is huge; those people would get their pensions, and retirees would get Medicare like the rest of us, instead of health benefits from a GM plan.

The scaremongers like to talk about 3 million jobs lost, all things considered, which means not just the factory and white-collar workers of the auto company but the parts suppliers, dealers, repair garages and hot dog stands outside the factories.

These same people continually remind us about the lost tax revenue, which might mean fewer pay raises for teachers and school administrators and hospital workers in the Rust Belt. These are politically terrible thoughts--the teachers' union and the medical workers' union are among the largest contributors to political campaigns.

My opposing viewpoint: An end to GM would not be the end of the world. We are not going to have to walk to work. Other manufacturers will build our cars and trucks. In fact, business will grow for the other carmakers.

GM sells 20% of the vehicles in America. Today's depressed market is on pace to sell about 12 million vehicles a year in the U.S., which means GM sales of 2.4 million. That is about 10 new assembly plants the others would need to build to replace the lost GM vehicles. Every car plant in the North America would have to run overtime to make up for the shut GM plants.