'DEPRESSION'에 해당되는 글 5건

  1. 2008.12.20 Beauty Icon: Depression-Era Beauties by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.12.06 What Would Keynes Do? by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.12.04 Girl from iconic Great Depression photo: 'We were ashamed' by CEOinIRVINE
  4. 2008.10.12 US to buy stake in banks; first since Depression by CEOinIRVINE
  5. 2008.10.10 Depression by CEOinIRVINE


Josephine Baker, a.k.a. La Baker, poses in her usual choice of attire for a Vanity Fair photo shoot in 1929.

Claudette Colbert leaves little to the imagination as Empress Poppaea in The Sign of the Cross, directed by Cecil B. DeMille in 1932. Her equally unclad companion rocks some old-school gladiators.
Jean Harlow, Hollywood's original Blonde Bombshell, vamps it up for the camera and shows off her namesake flaxen curls in 1933. Rarrh.



"Queen of the Movies" Myrna Loy in the film that made her famous, 1934's The Thin Man. Loyal fans later formed "Men Must Marry Myrna" clubs after Loy's performance as "the perfect wife" in The Best Years of Our Lives. "Some perfect wife I am," Loy said about similarities with her character. "I've been married four times, divorced four times, have no children, and can't boil an egg."


Barbara Stanwyck, in 1937, gets ready to rumble in Breakfast for Two. Swing 'em, sister.


Ginger Rogers glams up a soda fountain, in 1937. Bet you wish you were that straw, huh, gentlemen?


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What Would Keynes Do?

Business 2008. 12. 6. 03:21

What Would Keynes Do?

The government should spend on stuff, not on bad assets.

pic

Every day that goes by makes clearer the parallels between the current financial crisis and the one that led to the Great Depression. Then, as now, the core problem was one of deflation, or falling prices. But fixing it will require more than just low interest rates. This was the key insight of British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose theories finally explained how to end the Great Depression. They may be the key to solving today's crisis as well.


The Great Depression was so deep and prolonged for many reasons. Herbert Hoover stupidly signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which crippled international trade and finance, and imposed one of the largest tax increases in American history in 1932, which was exactly the wrong medicine at the wrong time. Franklin D. Roosevelt at least understood that deflation was at the root of the problem, but he thought artificially raising the price of gold and preventing businesses from cutting prices and wages by law was the solution. In fact, it prevented the economy from adjusting, which made the situation worse.

What few people understood at the time was that the Federal Reserve was primarily responsible for the deflation and the only institution that could have done anything about it. As we now know, the Fed's tight monetary policy brought on a financial crisis that began with the stock market crash in 1929. Smoot-Hawley was also a factor, but it wouldn't have been capable of inducing such a crisis if Fed policy hadn't already put financial markets in a fragile condition.

In its initial stages, the Fed might have been able to prevent a full-blown depression by being a lender of last resort. It should have been aggressive about buying every financial asset it could lay its hands on and created as much money as necessary to do so. But it didn't. Instead, it was passive and, as the value of financial assets collapsed, banks closed and vast amounts of wealth simply vanished.

The money simply disappeared, because there was no federal deposit insurance in those days. According to research by economists Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, the nation's money supply fell by one-third between 1929 and 1933, which induced a 25% fall in price levels over that period.

As prices fell, businesses were forced to sell goods for less than they cost to produce. They couldn't cut costs easily because that meant reducing wages, which workers naturally resisted. Layoffs were the only way to cut costs, but this meant workers didn't have any income with which to buy goods, since there was no unemployment compensation either. This created a downward spiral that proved very difficult to stop.

The decline in wealth also reduced spending, and the fall in prices had the effect of magnifying debts. Debtors were forced to repay loans in dollars worth 25% more than those they borrowed in the first place. Farmers, who are perpetually in debt, were especially hard hit. In effect, if they took out loans that were worth X number of bushels of wheat and were forced to repay them with the same number bushels, they needed 25% more bushels to repay.



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MODESTO, California (CNN) -- The photograph became an icon of the Great Depression: a migrant mother with her children burying their faces in her shoulder. Katherine McIntosh was 4 years old when the photo was snapped. She said it brought shame -- and determination -- to her family.

Katherine McIntosh holds the photograph taken with her mother in 1936.

Katherine McIntosh holds the photograph taken with her mother in 1936.

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"I wanted to make sure I never lived like that again," says McIntosh, who turns 77 on Saturday. "We all worked hard and we all had good jobs and we all stayed with it. When we got a home, we stayed with it."

McIntosh is the girl to the left of her mother when you look at the photograph. The picture is best known as "Migrant Mother," a black-and-white photo taken in February or March 1936 by Dorothea Lange of Florence Owens Thompson, then 32, and her children.

Lange was traveling through Nipomo, California, taking photographs of migrant farm workers for the Resettlement Administration. At the time, Thompson had seven children who worked with her in the fields.

"She asked my mother if she could take her picture -- that ... her name would never be published, but it was to help the people in the plight that we were all in, the hard times," McIntosh says.

"So mother let her take the picture, because she thought it would help." Video Watch "we would go home and cry" »

The next morning, the photo was printed in a local paper, but by then the family had already moved on to another farm, McIntosh says.

"The picture came out in the paper to show the people what hard times was. People was starving in that camp. There was no food," she says. "We were ashamed of it. We didn't want no one to know who we were." Video Watch a Depression-era daughter's recollections »

The photograph helped define the Great Depression, yet McIntosh says her mom didn't let it define her, although the picture "was always talked about in our family."

"It always stayed with her. She always wanted a better life, you know."

Her mother, she says, was a "very strong lady" who liked to have a good time and listen to music, especially the yodeler named Montana Slim. She laughs when she recalls her brothers bringing home a skinny greyhound pooch. "Mom, Montana Slim is outside," they said.

Thompson rushed outside. The boys chuckled. They had named the dog after her favorite musician.

"She was the backbone of our family," McIntosh says of her mom. "We never had a lot, but she always made sure we had something. She didn't eat sometimes, but she made sure us children ate. That's one thing she did do."

Her memories of her youth are filled with about 50 percent good times, 50 percent hard times.

It was nearly impossible to get an education. Children worked the fields with their parents. As soon as they'd get settled at a school, it was time to pick up and move again.

Her mom would put newborns in cotton sacks and pull them along as she picked cotton. The older kids would stay in front, so mom could keep a close eye on them. "We would pick the cotton and pile it up in front of her, and she'd come along and pick it up and put it in her sack," McIntosh says.

They lived in tents or in a car. Local kids would tease them, telling them to clean up and bathe. "They'd tell you, 'Go home and take a bath.' You couldn't very well take a bath when you're out in a car [with] nowhere to go."

She adds, "We'd go home and cry."

McIntosh now cleans homes in the Modesto, California, area. She's proud of the living she's been able to make -- that she has a roof over her head and has been able to maintain a job all these years. She says her obsession to keep things clean started in her youth when her chore was to keep the family tent clean. There were two white sheets that she cleaned each day.

"Even today, when it comes to cleaning, I make sure things are clean. I can't stand dirty things," she says with a laugh.

With the nation sinking into tough economic times and analysts saying the current economic crisis is the worst since the Great Depression, McIntosh says if there's a lesson to be learned from her experience it is to save your money and don't overextend yourself. iReport: Are you worried about losing your job?

"People live from paycheck to paycheck, even people making good money," she says. "Do your best to make sure it doesn't happen again. Elect the people you think is going to do you good."

Her message for President-elect Barack Obama is simple: "Think of the middle-class people."

She says she'll never forget the lessons of her hard-working mother, who died at the age of 80 in 1983. Her gravestone says: "Migrant Mother: A Legend of the strength of American motherhood."

"She was very strict, but very loving and caring. She cared for us all," McIntosh says.

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WASHINGTON -

The government will buy an ownership stake in a broad array of American banks for the first time since the Great Depression, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said late Friday, announcing the historic step after stock markets jolted still lower around the world despite all efforts to slow the selling stampede.

Separately, the U.S. and the globe's other industrial powers pledged to take "decisive action and use all available tools" to prevent a worldwide economic catastrophe.

"This is a period like none of us has ever seen before," declared Paulson at a rare Friday night news conference. He said the government program to purchase stock in private U.S. financial firms will be open to a broad array of institutions, including banks, in an effort to help them raise desperately needed money.

The administration received the authority to take such direct action in the $700 billion economic rescue bill that Congress passed and President Bush signed last week.

Earlier Friday, stock prices hurtled downward in the United States, Europe and Asia, even as President Bush tried to reassure Americans and the world that the U.S. and other governments were aggressively addressing what has become a near panic.

A sign of how bad things have gotten: A drop of 128 points in the Dow Jones industrials was greeted with sighs of relief after the index had plummeted much further on previous days. The week ended as the Dow's worst ever, with the index down an incredible 40.3 percent since its record close almost exactly one year earlier, on Oct. 9. 2007.

Investors suffered a paper loss of $2.4 trillion for the week, as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, and for the past year the losses have totaled $8.4 trillion.

It was even worse overseas on Friday. Britain's FTSE index ended below the 4,000 level for the first time in five years; Germany's DAX fell 7 percent and France's CAC-40 finished down 7.7 percent. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 9.6 percent, also hitting a five-year low. For the week, the Nikkei lost nearly a quarter of its value. Russia's market never even opened.

Paulson announced the administration's new effort to prop up banks at the conclusion of discussions among finance officials of the Group of Seven major industrialized countries. That group endorsed the outlines of a sweeping program to combat the worst global credit crisis in decades.

Earlier this week, Britain had moved to pour cash into its troubled banks in exchange for stakes in them - a partial nationalization.

Paulson said the U.S. program would be designed to complement banks' own efforts to raise fresh capital from private sources. The government's stock purchases will be of nonvoting shares so it will not have power to run the companies.

The purchase of stakes in companies would be in addition to the main thrust of the $700 billion rescue effort, which is to buy bad mortgages and other distressed assets from financial institutions. The aim is to unthaw frozen credit, get banks to resume more normal lending operations and stave off severe problems for businesses and everyday Americans alike.

It would mark the first time the government has taken equity ownership in banks in this manner since a similar program was employed during the Depression.

In 1989, the government created the Resolution Trust Corp. to deal with the aftermath of the savings and loan crisis. It disposed of the assets of failed savings and loans.

Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke met with their counterparts from the world's six other richest countries late in the day as the rout of financial markets sped ahead despite earlier dramatic rescue efforts in the U.S. and abroad.

In a statement at the end of that meeting, the G7 officials vowed to protect major banks and to prevent their failure. They also committed to working to get credit flowing more freely again, to support the efforts of banks to raise money from both public and private sources, to bolster deposit insurance and to revive the battered mortgage financing market.

They did not provide specifics beyond that five-point framework.

At the White House earlier in the day, Bush said, "We're in this together and we'll come through this together." He added, "Anxiety can feed anxiety, and that can make it hard to see all that's being done to solve the problem."

He made it clear the United States must work with other countries to battle the worst financial crisis that has jolted the world economy in more than a half-century.

"We've seen that problems in the financial system are not isolated to the United States," he said. "So we're working closely with partners around the world to ensure that our actions are coordinated and effective."

The Dow dropped a little over 100 points while he was speaking.

Fear has tightened its grip on investors worldwide even as the United States and other countries have taken a series of radical actions including an unprecedented, coordinated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

Besides the United States, the other members of the G7 meeting in Washington are Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada. Finance officials also planned to meet with Bush Saturday at the White House.

"We are in a development where the downward spiral is picking up speed," said Germany's Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, who wanted to see an orchestrated response among the G7.

So did French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who said a "coordinated, synchronized and rightly timed approach" was needed.

An even larger group of nations - called the G20 - will meet with Paulson on Saturday evening. How the world's finance officials and central bank presidents can better contain the spreading financial crisis also will dominate discussions at the weekend meetings of the 185-nation International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington.

The British, who recently announced a plan to guarantee billions of dollar worth of debt held by major banks, have been pitching that idea to the rest of the G7 members.

The idea behind all these ideas - as well as bold steps previously announced in recent weeks - is to get credit flowing more freely again.

In the United States, hard-pressed banks and investment firms are drawing emergency loans from the Federal Reserve because they can't get money elsewhere. Skittish investors have cut them off, moving their money into safer Treasury securities. Financial institutions are hoarding whatever cash they have, rather than lending it to each other or customers.

The lending lockup - which is making it harder and more expensive for businesses and ordinary people to borrow money - is threatening to push the United States and the world economy as a whole into a deep and painful recession.

In Europe, governments have moved to protect nervous bank depositors. Germany pledged to guarantee all private bank savings and CDs in the country, and Iceland and Denmark followed suit. Ireland went even further by also guaranteeing Irish banks' debts. The United States will temporarily boost deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000 in cases where its banks or savings and loans fail.

The Fed, meanwhile, has repeatedly tapped its Depression-era authority to be a lender of last resort, not only to financial institutions but also to other types of companies. Earlier this week, the Fed said it would buy massive amounts of companies' debts, in another unprecedented effort to break through the credit clog.

Associated Press writers Harry Dunphy, Desmond Butler, Martin Crutsinger and Deb Reichmann contributed to this report.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

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Depression

Business 2008. 10. 10. 00:07
Our Choice
Nouriel Roubini
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Last week, I suggested the need for a coordinated monetary policy rate cut. That cut arrived yesterday, with the Fed, the European Central Bank and other central banks cutting their policy rates by 50 basis points (bps).

This action is necessary, but only cosmetic, and it is too little too late. European central banks should have cut rates many months ago, before the recession and financial crisis became so virulent. Now, 50bps for the Eurozone is peanuts at a time when a minimum of 150bps is necessary to restart the economy and unclog frozen financial markets; 50bps is also too little in the U.S., given the damage to the real economy of the financial shocks of the last month. During the last recession, the Fed cut the Fed Funds down to 1%; we are still 50bps away from that level. But at the end of this cycle--as I have argued before--the Fed Funds will be closer to 0% than to 1%.

Policy rate cuts will have a limited effect as they don’t resolve the fundamental problem in markets--massive counter-party risk--that is keeping money-market spreads relative to safe rates so high. Yesterday’s plan to support the commercial paper market is a step in the right direction, but other, more radical policy actions are also needed now. Here are four suggestions for such additional policy action.

--To reduce the counter-party risk in the money markets, a triage between insolvent banks that need to be shut down and a recapitalization of solvent banks is necessary, together with massive injections of liquidity in non-banks and the corporate sector. Direct lending by the government to small businesses--via the Small Business Administration--is also necessary to avoid the implosion of smaller businesses.

--A generalized temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits is now necessary, both in the U.S. and in Europe, followed by a triage between insolvent banks to be closed rapidly and illiquid-but-solvent banks that deserve to be rescued to avoid the moral hazard of such blanket guarantee.

--The flawed $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) legislation will have to be modified in three ways to: a) allow for direct government injection of public capital in banks in the form of preferred shares, matched by private capital contributions by current shareholders (via suspension of all dividend payments and matching Tier 1 capital provided by private shareholders); b) implement a clear plan to reduce the face value of mortgages for distressed homeowners and avoid a tsunami of foreclosures; c) do a rapid and radical triage between solvent banks and insolvent banks that need to be rapidly closed.

-Given the collapse of private aggregate demand--consumption, residential investment and non-residential investment in structures are falling, and capital expenditure by the corporate sector was falling already before the latest financial and confidence shock and will now be plunging at an even faster rate. You need to give a boost to aggregate demand to ensure that an unavoidable two-year recession does not become a decade-long stagnation.

Since the private sector is not spending, and since the first fiscal stimulus plan (tax rebates for households and tax incentives to firms) failed miserably as households and firms are saving rather than spending and investing, it is necessary now to boost public consumption of goods and services via a massive spending program (a $300 billion fiscal stimulus).

The federal government should have a plan to immediately spend on infrastructure and new green technologies; also unemployment benefits should be sharply increased, together with targeted tax rebates only for lower income households at risk; and federal block grants should be given to state and local government to boost their infrastructure spending (roads, sewer systems, etc.).

If the private sector does not spend and/or cannot spend, old-fashioned traditional Keynesian spending by the government is necessary. It is true that we already have large and growing budget deficits; but $300 billion of public works is more effective and productive than spending $700 billion to buy toxic assets.

So we are now very close to the systemic financial meltdown that I outlined in a paper I wrote in February. But radical action can--and should--be taken to control the damage and prevent this meltdown from occurring.

At this point, the U.S., the advanced economies (and now most likely even some emerging market economies) will experience an ugly recession and an ugly financial and banking crisis--regardless of what we do from now on. We are already now in a global recession that is getting worse by the day. What radical policy action can only do is to prevent what will now be an ugly and nasty two-year recession and financial crisis from turning into a decade-long economic depression.

The financial and economic conditions are extreme; thus extreme policy action is needed now to save the global economy from that very ugly prospect.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at NYU and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, is a weekly columnist for Forbes.com.
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