
People line up at job fair in Denver. (Getty Images)
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the impact of the economic crisis
takes hold, employees from Wall Street to Main Street are feeling
nervous about their jobs, and with good reason.
As of September, 760,000 jobs have already been lost this year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And
a quarter of U.S. employers expect to make layoffs in the next 12
months, according to a recent report by consulting firm Watson Wyatt.
But which industries will suffer the most? Experts say certain sectors are more vulnerable to layoffs than others.
Housing: Jobs
in the housing sector were the first to go when the mortgage meltdown
took hold. But with the industry outlook at an all-time low, even more
layoffs could follow.
Beyond mortgage lenders and
homebuilders, jobs in commercial real-estate and at real-estate
agencies will be the next to go, according to Dean Baker, director of
the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C.
With
the worst September for new home sales since 1981, "some of the big
[real-estate] chains will do some consolidation," Baker said, "clearly
you need fewer offices," Baker said.
Finance: Few in the
financial sector are feeling secure about their positions. The latest
employment figures from the Department of Labor show financial firms
have eliminated an estimated 110,000 jobs over the past year through
September, and experts say there will be even more losses in the months
ahead.
As financial firms reorganize and consolidate, there are going to be a lot more layoffs, Baker said.
"Financial services firms have cut tremendously and I don't think that's over," echoed Lee Pinkowitz, associate professor at Georgetown University McDonough School of Business.
Retail: Before
the credit crunch, retailers were already struggling with soft sales as
high gas prices and falling home equity forced consumers to curtail
non-essential purchases. Now retail sales are dismal heading into the
holiday season. "This could be the weakest holiday hiring season since
2001," said John Challenger, chief executive of global outplacement
firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and that's not good for those
employed in the retail industry.
"I doubt we'll see the pick up in seasonal hiring that we'd normally see," Pinkowitz said.
But while department stores and high-end boutiques may be particularly hard hit, discount retailers, like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500)
could fare well in the current climate, Challenger said. Wal-Mart is
also the nation's largest private-sector employer, and could be a safe
haven for those who work there.
Publishing: As consumers
cut back, advertisers follow, and that means tough times for print
publications, including newspapers and magazines, experts say.
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, employment in the
publishing industry has been contracting since the beginning of last
year.
But the "grand decline" of jobs in the media industry,
which also includes broadcast and digital media, began with the dot-com
bust in 2001, noted Heidi Shierholz an economist at the Economic Policy
Institute, a research group based in Washington. Now a loss of jobs in
traditional publishing is being exacerbated, in part, by the move away
from print toward digital media.
"Every time you have a
recession it pushes companies that have been holding on by their
fingernails out of business," Challenger said. "It clears away an old
generation of companies and I think we'll see that with print."
Autos: While
sales at the Big Three automakers have fallen 20% this year and are
likely to tumble further, trouble in the auto sector is not confined to
manufacturing. All told, about 2 million Americans work in the industry.
While
declining sales will likely lead to more job losses, those in "the
tentacles of the auto industry" could be particularly hard hit in the
coming months, Pinkowitz said, which includes those jobs at dealerships and suppliers.
Travel: Airlines
have already announced layoffs across the board, but as consumers and
businesses continue to scale back discretionary spending on travel, the
implications go far beyond flying.
"All the industries under the
umbrella of travel are going to be at risk" Challenger said, including
rental cars, hotels and even restaurants.
If people are cutting
back, travel and leisure activities are the easiest things to do
without, explained Baker. Big restaurant chains will close locations,
he said, which means eliminating many wait staff and service jobs,
while some smaller restaurants will be forced out of business entirely.
But despite the mostly doom-and-gloom predictions, some say there are some bright spots ahead for American workers.
"Even
if you're in an industry where there has been some job downturns, there
still can be some opportunities," said Kimberly Bishop, vice chairman
of Chicago-based executive search firm Slayton Search Partners.
Bishop
suggests focusing on those skills and experiences that can translate
beyond the industry in which you work. There are certain roles that
every organization needs, she said, and you may be able to fulfill that
role in another industry that has more promise. 