Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, November 26, 2008;
Page A01
The government said yesterday that it will deploy up to $800 billion to
make it cheaper for Americans to get a home mortgage, take out a car
loan or borrow money through a credit card, as the government's
intervention in the financial system expands to directly address the
impact of the credit crisis on consumers.
The Federal Reserve
will launch a program by the end of the year in which it will buy up to
$500 billion of securities backed by mortgages, which are guaranteed by
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The Fed will also buy up to $100 billion of debt in Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, which should let them more easily expand their lending.
With the moves, the Fed will be pumping money into the economy
through unconventional new means, steps that analysts said should
reduce the rates that people must pay to take out a mortgage loan by as
much as a full percentage point. In anticipation of the program
yesterday, rates on mortgage securities fell about a third of a
percentage point, a drop that is likely to be passed through to
borrowers in the near future.
The Fed and Treasury Department are also creating a $200 billion
program that will lend against highly rated securities backed by auto
loans, student loans, credit card lending and small-business loans
backed by the Small Business Administration. Lately, there have been few buyers for packages of those loans, making it difficult for consumers to borrow money.
Previous interventions have focused more on the inner workings of
global credit markets -- injecting capital into banks, for example, and
lending money to large companies. But those efforts have failed to spur
the flow of lending to ordinary Americans, contributing to a steep
decline in prospects for the overall economy.
Estimates varied on how much the Fed action will lower interest rates for ordinary home buyers. Jim Vogel, an analyst with FTN Financial,
estimated that the Fed's facility could lower mortgage rates to between
5.5 percent and 5.75 percent for 30-year, fixed home loans. Recently
rates have been hovering over 6 percent and have been nearly as high as
6.75. Other analysts expected a steeper drop, to roughly 5 percent.
Either scenario would help the economy. It would allow some people
to refinance their mortgages, saving money on their monthly payment
that they could then use for other things. And it might prompt others
to enter the housing market as buyers, helping make the decline in
housing less severe. "The market has been so volatile with rates
changing from week to week that it has a depressing effect on the
market," Vogel said.
In a normal recession, the central bank cuts the federal funds rate,
a bank lending rate, to encourage growth. Two things are different this
time. For one, the downturn appears likely to be more severe than
recent recessions. So although the Fed has already cut the federal
funds rate to 1 percent -- and may well cut it to zero percent by
January -- it may not be enough.
Moreover, because this downturn is the result of a profound
financial crisis that has caused lending to dry up, those interest rate
cuts have not passed through to consumers. Since January, the Fed has
cut the rate from 4.25 percent to 1 percent, yet the rate on a 30-year,
fixed-rate mortgage has barely changed.
The major reason is that banks and other financial institutions are
suffering huge losses that make them reluctant to lend. So the Fed is
effectively printing money and funneling it to home buyers. In
contrast, under previous recent bailout efforts, the Fed has swapped
Treasury bonds for other, riskier assets, meaning it was not creating
new money.
The Bank of Japan
used this latest strategy in the 1990s, but too slowly, according to
many economists, creating a downturn that lasted 15 years. The Fed's
actions could stoke inflation in the future, particularly if the Fed is
slow to remove the new programs as markets return to normal. But with
prices for many goods falling, Fed leaders are more worried about a
sharp decline in the economy.
The Fed will only purchase mortgage securities backed by government-sponsored companies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae,
which have high standards for credit quality and caps on how large the
loan can be. Because the Treasury took over mortgage-finance giants
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September, the government effectively
already is guaranteeing the debt of those institutions.
The program announced yesterday commits the Fed to spend nearly 100
times as much to buy mortgage-backed securities as the government
envisioned in early September, when the Treasury said it would buy $5
billion in mortgage-backed securities. Analysts said yesterday that
nothing short of hundreds of billions of dollars of purchases will
significantly bring down interest rates.
After seizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government intended to
push those companies to lower mortgage rates. The government instructed
the companies to increase their purchases of mortgage securities by up
to $100 billion over the next year. But that effort ran into trouble.
Despite the government intervention, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
still had high borrowing costs, and they passed those costs on to
borrowers.
Investors here and elsewhere were confused about the government's
backing for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. The government said it was
"effective," not "explicit," and that the companies' future remained
unsettled. As a result, investors pulled back from the debt.
Fannie Mae warned in a public disclosure that it might not be able
to do what the government asked without additional support for its
debt.
Analysts said the package of actions aimed at consumers is a
dramatic escalation of the government's battle to force credit to flow
through the economy. "They're not messing around here," said Julia
Coronado, a senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital.
"This is a very aggressive effort. They're not going to prevent a
recession, it's too late for that, but they're trying to prevent a
catastrophe."