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The market seemed to prefer to wait for the group's official
announcement on a cut late on Wednesday. Crude futures on the Nymex
were down 4 cents at $43.56 on Wednesday morning, after rising by $1.50
to more than $45.00 a barrel in European trading. United States Oil Fund
If
OPEC were to formally announce that it was cutting by 2.0 million, it
would be the biggest single output cut ever made by the organization.
Still, such a size would not be particularly alarming. Earlier this
month OPEC President Chakib Khelil said there would be a "surprise" cut
in production on Dec. 17 and the market has since then upped its
forecast for a cut to 2.0 million, from 1.5 million. (See "OPEC's 'Surprise' May Disappoint.") A truly "surprise" cut would have to be one of around 2.5 million to 3.0 million.
Along with tackling an oversupply of oil in the market, OPEC's big
challenge will be for all 15 of its members to comply with such a
significant cut. For those whose budgets are already stretched--think
Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria--that will be especially difficult. The
group said that its rate of compliance with that last production cut of
1.5 million in late October had been 85.0%.
"The issue going forward is: 'What is the aim of the supply cut?'" said
BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian. "Is it to push for higher
prices, or is it to establish a price floor?" Pushing too aggressively
for higher prices could backfire in a market that is falling because of
waning demand, but the cartel also needs to make a cut significant
enough to get the market's attention, he said.
Tchilinguirian believes a cut of 2.0 million would be on the "high
side" if OPEC wanted to find that balance, while a reduction of 1.5-1.6
million would be more appropriate.
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Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, left, and Barack Obama attend a 2007 rally for Chicago's 2016 Olympics bid.
"The president-elect agrees with [Illinois] Lt. Gov. [Pat] Quinn and many others that under the current circumstances it is difficult for the governor to effectively do his job and serve the people of Illinois," Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs said.
FBI agents on Tuesday arrested Blagojevich and his chief of staff, John Harris, on federal corruption charges related in part to the selection of Obama's successor to the Senate.
Obama's former partner in the Senate, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, has also called on Blagojevich to step down immediately.
"Beyond guilt or innocence, the charges against you raise serious questions about your ability to carry out your duties as chief executive of our state," Durbin wrote in a letter sent to Blagojevich. Explainer: Federal complaint against Blagojevich »
Durbin also asked Blagojevich not to name a successor to Obama.
"Because of the nature of the charges against you, no matter whom you were to select, that individual would be under a cloud of suspicion. That would not serve our state, our nation, or the United States Senate,"
Even if Blagojevich named a replacement for Obama, it is unclear whether the Senate would seat the governor's choice. The Constitution gives the Senate the sole authority to decide who is qualified to serve as a senator. Watch whom Blagojevich has considered »
Gibbs said Obama also supported legislation that Illinois lawmakers will consider next week to authorize a special election to choose his successor. Explainer: Illinois governors in hot water »
Obama believes the lawmakers should "put in place a process to select a new senator that will have the trust and confidence of the people of Illinois," Gibbs said.
The Illinois Legislature will begin a special session Monday to consider legislation that would authorize a special election to choose Obama's successor.
Cindy Davidsmeyer, a spokeswoman for Illinois Senate President Emil Jones, said a House committee was scheduled to consider the bill Monday afternoon and then the full House would vote afterward. iReport.com: Do you trust your leaders?
The Senate could consider the legislation as soon as the next day, Davidsmeyer said. Watch what was in the complaint against Blagojevich »
Obama on Tuesday declined to comment on the arrest, saying, "Like the rest of the people of Illinois I am saddened and sobered by the news that came out of the U.S. attorney's office."
Obama also said he had not contacted Blagojevich about his possible successor, adding, "I was not aware of what was happening." Watch Obama's ties to the Illinois governor »
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Wall Street had a strong start to the week, after President-elect Barack Obama outlined his economic stimulus plans and indications that Congress will help Detroit's automakers stave off bankruptcy.
Over the weekend, Obama outlined plans to invest in infrastructure, energy and construction projects to spur the U.S. economy out of its year-long recession and create jobs. The proposals came after the Labor Department said the economy shed 533,000 jobs in November.
The major averages started the day higher, as the Dow Jones industrial average gained 269 points, or 3.1%, to 8,904, shortly into the session. The Standard & Poor's 500 was up 31 points, or 3.5%, to 907, while the Nasdaq added 43 points, or 2.9%, to 1,553.
According to TradeTheNews.com, Democrats in Congress and the Bush administration have agreed to the framework of a deal that provide loans to General Motors
Still, the news out of corporate America was not all good over the weekend and Monday morning. More job cuts are on the way, from companies like 3M
3M announced over the weekend that it would cut 1,800 jobs in the fourth quarter, and on Monday morning the diversified company cut its 2008 earnings guidance to reflect the global economic slowdown. Shares of the Dow component were up 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.07, during the broad rally early Monday.
Dow Chemical said it will lay off 5,000 workers and close 20 plants in "high-cost" locations as part of its accelerated restructuring plans. The news sent Dow shares up $1.03, or 5.4%, to $20.03.
The outlook is also uncertain for MetLife, after the insurance company trimmed its fourth-quarter earnings guidance and said it could report a loss for the period. MetLife
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Miner says efforts to build the world's largest iron ore producer were doomed in today's financial climate.
The
miner also said it was put off the deal by the high levels of debt that
it would it would need to service amid an environment of tight credit
and diminished cash flows. BHP said it would write off approximately $450.0 million for the costs of its pursuit of Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton chairman Don Argus said that the company still believed in the "basic industrial logic" of a merger and remained bullish on long-term resource demand from emerging economies. But it expected European regulators to require asset sales in iron ore and metallurgical coal that would be too costly to pursue (See "Europe May Balk At Mining Mega-Merger").
"In
the normal range of economic conditions BHP would have been prepared to
offer remedies which we believe would have been both acceptable and
manageable," the statement read. But "uncertainty regarding our ability
to achieve fair divestment values in the required time frames, add to
costs and risks of transaction," hurting the interests of its
shareholders.
Some analysts were surprised by the scrapped offer. "I always thought
the bid was going to go ahead," said Kieran Daly, an analyst with
Investec Securities in South Africa.
"But uncertainty of BHP's ability to refinance the Rio debt and the
uncertainty about cash flows because of commodity prices has made it
more difficult. The bid was looking very expensive."
"My view is that the market's moved against the situation, plus Rio is
saddled with debt," said Michael Komesaroff, an analyst with Urandiline
Investments. "With the subprime crisis, nobody can get any money to buy
anything. Rio's got problems but they're not of BHP's making. They've
got a phenomenal amount of debt."
"The market has changed dramatically in the last six months. What made
sense six months ago doesn't make sense now. People talked about
synergies in iron ore. Those synergies are still there, but nobody is
prepared to pay for them," the analyst said.
A sharp decline in commodity prices from their record highs in the
first half of the year have been weighed by concerns about slowing
demand from faltering economies and have also squeezed BHP Billiton's
profit margins.
BHP Billiton also has its money earmarked for other things. Just
moments after dropping its bid for Rio Tinto, BHP said it would take a
$2.1 billion pre-tax impairment charge on two Australian nickel mines,
and it also approved spending $5.0 billion on iron ore expansion.
BHP has meanwhile announced an approval of plans for a $4.8 billion
investment to increase installed capacity across its western Australian
iron ore operations by 50 million tons per year, to 205 million tons
per year, including previously approved capital of $930 million.
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An earlier version of this story included a subhead that gave the impression that MetLife is in imminent trouble. This is not the case. As of the end of its 2008 third quarter, MetLife had unrealized losses of $17 billion out of a total investment portfolio of $324 billion. On Nov. 5, Moody's Investor Services affirmed MetLife's Aa2 financial-strength rating, its second-highest rating.
With the financial system in crisis, investors increasingly rely on government guarantees to protect their money. Bank accounts are backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and its $53 billion war chest. After decades on their own, money market funds now are backed by the U.S. Treasury. And life insurance policies and annuities? They're backed by state guaranty associations. There's only one hitch: The states have virtually no cash on hand and must rely on promises to pay made by healthy life insurers.
In today's climate, that could be a major problem. Stocks of life insurers, formerly immune to the fear and panic hitting other sectors, recently became the market's target of choice. Shares have declined nearly 50% in the past two months as investors have learned the extent of losses in insurers' investment portfolios. Metropolitan Life (MET), for one, said its debt investments declined $17 billion in the third quarter of 2008. Adding to the pressure, many insurers sold variable annuities with guaranteed-income features, which could cost them an additional $15 billion to support, according to a recent Fitch Ratings report.
So far the system has held up. Insurers are not banks—which can tumble in an
instant if worried depositors pull money simultaneously. Insurance companies
fail in slow motion, if only because policyholders pay expensive penalties to
cancel policies. When insurers do fail, state regulators sell off what they can
and bill the remaining life insurers operating in that state to make
policyholders whole. "The funds have been pretty good at providing a basic level
of consumer protection," says Peter G. Gallanis, president of the National
Organization of Life & Health Insurance Guaranty Assns.
But the system runs on the assumption that only small insurers are likely to fail, and then only one at a time. Few noticed in 2007, when Benicorp Insurance in Indiana and Texas-based Lincoln Memorial Life Insurance both flopped.
Sometimes, though, failures are far more substantial. When Executive Life went belly-up in 1991, states couldn't raise enough to cover its obligations. Annuity and life insurance policyholders in California recovered as little as 70 cents on the dollar or were forced to accept modified terms with alternative providers. "I wouldn't put a tremendous amount of credence in guaranty funds," says Adam Sherman, president of advisory firm Firstrust Financial Resources in Philadelphia.
It remains to be seen if the insurance market will further weaken or keep muddling through. But if a large company does fail, certain guaranty funds may not live up to their name. In a handful of states, a single insurer dominates the business, writing nearly one-fifth of the total dollar value of premiums. Even in others, guaranty funds are typically permitted to assess surviving companies only a small amount—about 1% to 2% of premiums per year. "The funds could become exhausted," says Donald Light, an insurance analyst at consultancy Celent.
Insurance customers need to be more vigilant. Stop focusing only on cost and service and start worrying about solvency. Check such agencies as Standard & Poor's (MHP), Fitch Ratings, Moody's (MCO), and A.M. Best to find the highest-rated companies, and be alert for downgrades. Then dig deeper. Find out about an insurer's exposure to real estate and mortgages and make sure its debt holdings are investment-grade. "Everyone's under the false assumption that it doesn't matter what company you buy from," says Thomas Archer, chairman of financial-services firm Archer Financial Group in New York. "It does."
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When Chrysler was near death and awaiting a government bailout in 1979, then-CEO Lee Iacocca ordered drastic spending cuts and required all checks above $1,000 to be approved by a senior vice president.
Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. need to follow the same play book now, industry analysts and management professors say, as they try to outlast the debate in Washington over whether they will get billions in government loans.
With no hope of getting credit elsewhere and auto sales at a 25-year low, both automakers are perilously close to having only the minimum amount of cash needed to operate.
Today, with GM alone spending $6.9 billion more than it took in last quarter and having operations in 34 countries, Iacocca's $1,000 limit might not be practical. But industry analysts and bankruptcy experts say both companies must take similar measures to ensure their companies live long enough to use any loans they get.
"You turn the electricity off. You do things like shut the proving grounds down," said Jim Hall, managing director of 2953 Analytics of Birmingham, Mich.
Top executives of GM, Chrysler and Ford Motor Co. went to Washington this week seeking roughly $25 billion but ran into so much opposition that Congress delayed voting on the bailout until the automakers prove they can be viable.
They must submit a plan to Congress by Dec. 2, followed by more hearings before any vote is taken. That means money won't be available at least until late December, probably not until early next year.
Meanwhile, the companies face huge expenses and a lack of revenue because car buyers are having trouble getting financing or are delaying big purchases because of uncertainty about their jobs. October was the worst U.S. auto sales month in 25 years, and November is looking only slightly better.
Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli told the Senate Banking Committee his company had $6.1 billion in cash at the end of the third quarter after burning up $1 billion in cash per month from July through September.
GM fared worse. It burned up $6.9 billion last quarter and about $6 billion in the first half of the year and has warned that it could reach its minimums sometime next month.
Ford, while burning through billions as well, has a big stockpile of borrowed money and says it can last at least through 2009.
But without aid soon, GM and Chrysler will have trouble paying bills and may have to seek bankruptcy protection.
Inside both companies' headquarters, teams likely are looking to cut spending any way they can, including delays in new investments, experts say.
"They have to take really drastic steps in their cost-cutting," said Robert Wiseman, a Michigan State University professor who teaches strategic management. "Stop buying everything except for the most critical things they need for their operation."
GM announced Friday it is canceling its traditional holiday party for the media "due to the very difficult economic situation facing the nation, the state, the industry, and our company." The party will be replaced by a $5,000 donation to a journalism scholarship fund.
At Chrysler, Nardelli testified, there's a cash committee that scrutinizes requests every week.
But what they're doing now may not be enough. Some in Congress criticized the CEOs for flying to Washington on separate corporate jets. GM is reducing its leased fleet from seven planes last year to three, but the stigma remains.
Lawmakers also rapped the automakers' high labor costs and particularly the jobs bank, in which laid-off workers get 95 percent of their pay plus benefits even though they aren't working.
The United Auto Workers said it has cut the jobs bank and placed time limits on it in new contracts signed with the companies last year. Still, more than 3,500 workers are getting paid for not working, and that number is sure to rise as the companies continue to cut jobs.
On Friday, GM announced it would extend holiday shutdowns and make other production cuts at five North American factories. It also accelerated the closure of a truck plant in Oshawa, Ontario.
Harlan Platt, who teaches corporate turnarounds at Northeastern University in Boston, said GM should turn to the UAW for help.
"The bank right now is the union, and they're going to have to give up something in the near term so they have something very valuable in the long term," Platt said.
Initially the UAW said it already gave up a lot in the new contracts, agreeing to lower wages for new hires and to shift the companies' huge retiree health care costs to a union-administered trust.
But on Thursday, President Ron Gettelfinger softened his stance, saying that the union is at the bargaining table already.
"We would welcome all the other stakeholders to the table to make some concessions," he said.
In Washington, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said lawmakers are trying to get reassurances that the companies have a specific plan to survive before the government hands over taxpayer money. But that might be troublesome for the automakers.
GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner told reporters Thursday that the company already has shared a detailed plan confidentially with the Bush administration and key staffers in Washington. He's concerned that sensitive information could be made public.
"Historically things like your future product plans, technology plans and financial plans would be competitively sensitive information, and so for a variety of reasons, we wouldn't be sharing that publicly," he said.
Douglas Baird, a professor who specializes in bankruptcy at the University of Chicago Law School, says the automakers were too vague, giving Congress less information than companies normally give lenders when seeking bankruptcy financing.
"That's not the way you approach a lender in a work-out. That's just not the way it's done," he said.
Wagoner, he said, will have the difficult task of showing Congress how GM can be viable with its current structure.
"That's not going to be easy to do," he said.
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow industrials bouncing as much as 550 points, after reports surfaced that President-elect Barack Obama will nominate New York Federal Bank president Timothy Geithner as his new Treasury Secretary.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 494 points, or 6.6%, according to early tallies. It was the fifth-biggest single-session point gain ever, according to Dow Jones.
The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index gained 6.3% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 5.2%.
Stocks rallied in the morning on reports that troubled Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) might put itself up for sale. But the company's CEO shot down the rumors in a call with senior managers, sending Citi's shares and the broader market lower.
But the market managed to snap back in the last two hours of trading as reports about the president-elect's cabinet appointment circulated. Stocks had also been primed for a snap-back rally anyway, after the S&P 500 ended the previous session at an 11-1/2 year low.
In particular, Wall Street seemed to welcome Obama's reported pick of Geithner, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee. Geithner was the Fed's point person on the rescue of Bear Stearns and AIG.
Additionally, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is reportedly being considered for Commerce Secretary.
The Dow has lost 10.4% over the last two sessions, its worst two-day percentage drop in over 20 years, according to Dow Jones.
Looking forward, stocks aren't likely to see a lasting rally in the weeks ahead, with the markets continuing to be driven by the day-to-day news, said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.
"Maybe if we start to hear that Christmas isn't going to be quite as terrible as everyone thinks or if we get some other shred of less negative news, we can see a small advance," he said. "But at this point, I just don't see the catalyst."
Banks and homebuilders: Companies hit most directly by the subprime mortgage fallout and credit crisis were under pressure.
The bank sector and the credit market had seen some improvement in late October and early November amid a series of steps by the government to make cash more available. But now that trend seems to have ended. That's especially been the case since the Treasury Department said it will no longer buy banks' bad mortgage debt, as it originally planned to do, through the $700 billion bailout.
Citigroup's plunge of 22% on questions about its future exacerbated the gloom hanging over the sector.
Among the other bank movers, JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) shares slumped 15%, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) lost 9% and Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) lost 7%.
Auto sector: Investors also contended with the albatross of the automakers, with an auto sector bailout all but dead. The top executives of the Big Three automakers told Congress this week that need a $25 billion loan to stay in business.
Some critics think the companies would be better served by declaring bankruptcy and restructuring. However, such a move would still bring job losses and more strain on the already struggling economy.
Congress has pledged to return next month to reconsider the bid if the automakers can come up with a "viable" recovery plan. GM (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford (F, Fortune 500) shares dropped Friday.
Other company news: After the close Thursday, Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that topped estimates and weaker revenue that missed estimates. But the stock fell anyway.
Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) was one of the session's bright spots. After the close Thursday, the apparel retailer reported higher earnings that topped analysts' estimates on weaker revenue that missed estimates. Shares gained 16% Friday.
Other markets: Global markets were mixed, with Asian stocks ending higher and European markets ending lower.
U.S. light crude oil for January delivery rose 51 cents to settle at $49.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, in the first day of trading for the new contract.
The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.
COMEX gold for December delivery rallied $43.10 to settle at $791.80 an ounce.
For the first time in 3-1/2 years, gasoline prices fell below $2 a gallon, losing 3.1 cents to a national average of $1.989 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card activity released Friday by AAA. Prices have been dropping for over two months. In that time, prices have lost $1.84 a gallon, or over 52%.
Bonds: Treasury yields bounced back Friday after the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year government bonds all finished the previous session at the lowest levels since the Federal Reserve started keeping records in 1962.
The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill hung close to 68-year lows of zero, versus a yield of 0.01% Thursday. The 3-month - seen as the safest place to put money in the short term - last hit these levels in September as investor panic peaked. The low yield means nervous investors would rather preserve their money despite no interest rather than risk the stock market.
Borrowing rates worsened a bit. The 3-month Libor rate rose to 2.16% from 2.15% Thursday, while overnight Libor rose to 0.47% from 0.44% Thursday, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor is a key bank lending rate.
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In Pictures: |
Seven Work-Stress Relievers |
Star Athletes On Staying Cool Under Pressure |
Think you're stressed? Try a day in the life of Rich Gelfond, co-chief executive of IMAX, the large-format film company.
Take Nov. 5, for instance. After his usual 6 a.m. stint at the gym, Gelfond joined his board of directors and audit committee for a two-hour meeting. From there, he headed to a three-hour meeting to finalize third-quarter financials to be announced the next day. In the afternoon, he wrote a script for the conference call and practiced fielding tough questions with his public relations team, all while battle-planning with film executives preparing to launch Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa in 35 newly outfitted digital-projection Regal theaters--IMAX's (nasdaq: IMAX - news - people ) biggest opening to date.
That's pressure. But you don't need to be a top executive like Gelfond to feel stressed out on the job. The American Institute of Stress estimates that stress costs U.S. corporations $300 billion annually in health care costs, turnover and absenteeism.
In Pictures: Seven Work-Stress Relievers
In Pictures: 10 Star Atheletes On Staying Cool Under Pressure
How to cope? We spoke with psychologists and sports stars to find some helpful tactics--no heavy pharmaceuticals allowed. In calmer moments, much of this might seem like common sense. But if you think you've heard it all before, ask yourself: How often do you actually follow the advice?
In the short term, coping with stress is about finding release--or at least some semblance of it. When Gelfond is at his busiest--bouncing between meetings, grappling with the latest technology and dealing with investors--he makes sure he gets an hour in the gym before he starts his day. "Not only do [my workouts] help me to relieve existing stress, they increase my ability to deal with problems that arise throughout the day," he says.
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But the Democratic message on the economy is now boiling down to a more blunt and focused rallying cry: jobs, jobs, jobs.
With unemployment claims at a 14-year high, and with Goldman Sachs economists predicting that the jobless rate could rise to 8.5 percent by the end of 2009, Democrats are seizing on job creation as an argument for aggressive action that they say will be hard for Republicans to resist.
Democrats are using the promise of tens of thousands of new jobs building bridges, public transit lines and port facilities to push for an infrastructure program that carries echoes of the New Deal's Works Progress Administration. After Republican opposition last week scuttled talk of a more limited stimulus package in the short term, Democrats plan to wait until January -- when Obama takes office and an even larger Democratic majority controls Congress -- to move forward with legislation for the infrastructure program, which would be part of a stimulus package that some economists say needs to be at least $300 billion.
The Democrats'
talk of energy is being framed more than ever around the prospect of
more "green" jobs: building wind turbines and solar panels, for
example, or retrofitting buildings to make them more efficient. Even
Democratic plans to expand health coverage are being billed as
job-creation measures. The thinking is that universal coverage will
lower health-care costs and make companies more willing to hire, as
well as create new health-care jobs.
"People are starting to see that the loss of jobs is starting to cascade. You start reading about 2,000 people here, 900 people here, it's bam to bam to bam, and at this point, no one thinks they're immune," said House Labor and Education Committee Chairman George Miller (D-Calif.). "So energy becomes about jobs as much as it is about the economy. Health care becomes about jobs as much it is about the economy."
Obama and other Democrats are also promoting a $50 billion rescue package for the Big Three automakers as a way to save the more than 2 million jobs that some economists estimate could be affected as a bankruptcy rippled outward. "For a while, this crisis did not hit Main Street so deeply, but now it really has," said Rep. Sander M. Levin (D-Mich.), who is helping lead the push for a bailout. "What you have is just a huge impact in terms of the loss of jobs that's pervasive throughout the country."
And with the 2008 election just past, the jobs mantra is already emerging as a dominant Democratic theme in the next round. Terence R. McAuliffe, a former Democratic Party chairman, announced his possible candidacy for governor of Virginia next year with a promise to use his many corporate connections to bring new jobs to the Old Dominion. In an interview Friday, he said that he knows "most of the CEOs and can open that door and make that pitch."
"Jobs is the centerpiece of the agenda right now," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "That's what an economic recovery is all about, putting people in America back to work. . . . Republicans in Congress seem not to have gotten that message -- but come January, that logjam will break."
Republicans scoff at the Democratic rhetoric, saying Obama's plan to raise taxes on the wealthy is likely to deter job growth. Doug Holtz-Eakin, the main economic adviser for Sen. John McCain's campaign, said Democrats are focusing on job creation precisely because they know that McCain's charges about the stifling effect of Obama's tax plans were resonating with voters in the final weeks.
Going forward, Holtz-Eakin said, the Democrats would suffer if they draped too much of their agenda onto job creation. With the annual deficit approaching $1 trillion, he said, the only way to pay for the spending would be with huge cuts in defense spending or with large tax increases, because "arithmetic is their enemy, and you can't fool Mother Nature forever."
"A growth agenda is appealing to the American people, but if he changes that to a fairness agenda, he's going to have trouble," Holtz-Eakin said of Obama.
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