'SOME'에 해당되는 글 3건

  1. 2008.12.01 Ten Reasons For Some Economic Optimism by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.11.17 Save the Planet, Save Some Cash by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.11.16 Alternate Universe: No Bailout For GM by CEOinIRVINE

Dwelling too much on the doldrums violates the holiday spirit. Yes, the economy is in bad shape, very likely entering or already in a painful recession. But it's not all bad. No, really.

At the pump, oil price deflation is also known as cheaper gas. For those who have been priced out of the housing market for a decade, the imploding market offers hope they'll someday be able to buy.


Still, after decades of a debt-fueled binge, the American consumer is fearful and grumpy. The Conference Board estimates that the average household is going to spend about 10% less for Christmas gifts this year, down to $418 from $471 in 2007. That means consumption, the biggest part of the country's gross domestic product, is likely to fall precipitously in the fourth quarter. But then what?

"You have to ask the question: How long will this total lack of confidence last?" says Joel Naroff, the chief economist for TD Bank. "Can consumers remain irrationally despondent for an extended period of time?"

Naroff, picked in October by Bloomberg News as the year's top economic forecaster, has been looking at consumer confidence since it started to slip in the summer, and he thinks it's too pessimistic and will snap back. It's the same intuition that had Naroff worried about how badly misaligned the housing markets were when he called the downturn before many others.

History suggests Americans just don't stay depressed for long, he says. Even with economists talking of unemployment rising to 8% or 9% from the current level of 6.5%, most people and businesses will muddle through. "You go out eight months from now. You're in May, June, July. People discover they still have their jobs. Businesses have realized that while conditions aren't great, they're not going to fold," says Naroff, "They ask, 'Why am I behaving as if everything is going to collapse tomorrow?' And they come to the conclusion it's not, and that's when they start spending."




Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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(By Dominic Bracco Ii -- The Washington Post)

Despite what marketers of products such as bamboo cutting boards and vegan silk gowns would have us believe, helping the planet doesn't require forking over your paycheck. It's really about conserving, not consuming -- so going green should also save you some.

Don't believe us? Try some of the tips below. These lifestyle changes can really add up, says Jennifer Abel, who manages education programs in finance and nutrition at the Virginia Cooperative Extension's Arlington office.

Bike, walk or run. By using your muscles instead of a car to get you places, you're saving gas and reducing carbon emissions. And if that change means you can skip going to the gym, you can also avoid those monthly fees and conserve the energy it takes to power all those exercise machines.

Drive smart. If you must get behind the wheel, remember this: Speeding, excessive idling, lapses in maintenance, improper tire pressure and hauling unnecessary cargo lower your gas mileage.

Stop eating lunch out. Bringing your food to work in reusable containers might keep as much as $1,500 a year in your pocket and a great deal of takeout packaging out of landfills. Also consider switching from expensive barista-made lattes to home-brewed organic, fair-trade coffee.

Visit the library. Borrow books, DVDs and CDs free -- that's a hard deal to beat.

Go electronic. Pay bills and get statements online; you'll save trees and stamps.

Swap stuff. Skip the mall and arrange a goods or clothing swap with friends and neighbors. (You know what they say about one man's trash.)

Conserve hot water. As much as 11 percent of a home's annual energy costs comes from needing hot water, Abel says. Wash clothes in cold water, take shorter showers, install low-flow faucets and turn down your hot-water heater to 120 degrees.

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Slay energy "vampires." Many electronics and appliances draw current even when turned off. Unplug them when not in use or put them on power strips, which can be easily switched on and off as needed.

Read up on the topic. Abel recommends the book "Go Green, Live Rich" by David Bach (Broadway Books, $14.95), as well as the Web sites http://www.eere.energy.gov, http://www.greenandsave.com and http://www.energystar.gov.



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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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It's not nice to say, but if GM collapses, it could be a good thing for some companies, states and workers.

I do not expect General Motors to shut its doors this month, next month or any month in the near future. Instead, I fully expect our Federal government, lame duck Congress or "new duck" Congress will write the checks to keep GM in business--at least for now.

It seems fair to ask what would happen if taxpayers do not rescue General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ). I suspect that if Americans had a vote, they would turn down GM. The truth is that our people now buy more cars with foreign nameplates than with American nameplates. Another reality: Parts of the country would prosper if GM fell.

Of course, a GM collapse would be bad news for GM workers who would lose their jobs. Factoring in all the layoffs already planned and those to come, I estimate the number would be close to 75,000, with most of those job losses in Michigan and other Rust Belt states with GM plants. As far as the pensioners go, GM's pension fund is huge; those people would get their pensions, and retirees would get Medicare like the rest of us, instead of health benefits from a GM plan.

The scaremongers like to talk about 3 million jobs lost, all things considered, which means not just the factory and white-collar workers of the auto company but the parts suppliers, dealers, repair garages and hot dog stands outside the factories.

These same people continually remind us about the lost tax revenue, which might mean fewer pay raises for teachers and school administrators and hospital workers in the Rust Belt. These are politically terrible thoughts--the teachers' union and the medical workers' union are among the largest contributors to political campaigns.

My opposing viewpoint: An end to GM would not be the end of the world. We are not going to have to walk to work. Other manufacturers will build our cars and trucks. In fact, business will grow for the other carmakers.

GM sells 20% of the vehicles in America. Today's depressed market is on pace to sell about 12 million vehicles a year in the U.S., which means GM sales of 2.4 million. That is about 10 new assembly plants the others would need to build to replace the lost GM vehicles. Every car plant in the North America would have to run overtime to make up for the shut GM plants.



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