What the new top diplomat will--and won't--get out of her Asian tour.
Hillary Clinton, breaking recent tradition, will go to
Asia on her first trip abroad as secretary of state. Beginning the
middle of this month, she will visit Japan, Indonesia and South Korea.
The last stop on her itinerary will be China. China was also the last
stop on Madeleine Albright's maiden trip in 1997 when she started in
Europe and worked her way east. Both Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell visited Europe and the Middle East on their first foreign visits.
Rich in symbolism, first trips are always important. To her credit, Mrs. Clinton is making Tokyo her initial stop. As she told the Senate last month, "Our alliance with Japan is a cornerstone of American policy in Asia."
Despite their importance, the Japanese have come to doubt their
relationship with the U.S., and ties became strained toward the end of
the Bush administration.
They were worried about many differences they had with Washington--such
as those over North Korea--but their real concern was that America
would eventually abandon them in favor of the giant next door.
Indeed,
it was Mrs. Clinton's husband who started the "Japan passing" fear by
going to Beijing in 1998 and skipping Tokyo. The State Department,
always concerned about angering the Chinese, said that Mrs. Clinton
chose Tokyo for her first stop due to "scheduling" reasons, but that's not how the rest of the world sees it.
Yet
few outside Japan will be watching when the secretary of state touches
down in Tokyo. For one thing, Japan looks like it is in the midst of a historic political transition.
The odds are that both Prime Minister Taro Aso and his Liberal
Democratic Party will be out of power by September, the deadline for
the next election for the Diet's lower house.
The Jakarta and
Seoul stopovers will also be largely ignored by the global community.
It is only when the planet's lone superpower pays a visit to its most
populous nation that the world will start paying attention.
The
meeting, though, is less important than most observers assume. Just
about every American these days worries that China will stop purchasing
Treasury debt, which will be issued to fund the Obama administration's
planned stimulus package--and its other spending requirements.
The Chinese have played upon this American anxiety, most
recently at the end of last month when Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking in
London, suggested that President Obama would like to know what Beijing
will do in this regard.
Yet
there is not much Mrs. Clinton can say to her Chinese hosts that will
affect how much U.S. Treasury debt they decide to purchase. As a
practical matter, Beijing needs to park most of its dollar earnings
from exports in safe dollar-denominated instruments. And as Chinese
exports fall--forecasts for last month indicate they dropped 14% after
recording declines in November and December--Beijing will buy fewer
Treasuries. Mrs. Clinton, to avoid signaling that Beijing has leverage,
could surprise the Chinese and skip this topic altogether.
There
are other issues to talk about, of course, but, as the Bush
administration discovered after seven years of intensive discussion, it
is unlikely the Chinese can be persuaded to do anything they would not
otherwise have done on their own.
For example, China does not
look like it will substantially change long-held policies supporting
the regimes in Iran and North Korea. Chinese currency tactics are
largely set, as are positions on the Doha Trade Round and access to
China's domestic markets. And there will be no movement on Taiwan.
Human
rights, a perennial topic, is almost beyond discussion these days as
Beijing has dug in its heels. Unless Mrs. Clinton is prepared at this
early stage to make drastic concessions or apply unprecedented
pressure, she will not make significant progress this month.
There
are a host of things China wants--a giveaway of environmental
technology is on the list, as is more information sharing with the
Pentagon--but the better strategy is to have the Chinese come to
Washington to ask for them, rather than have Mrs. Clinton go to China
to hand them out.
The Obama administration has not even named
its ambassador to Beijing or had time to formulate China policy, so the
secretary of state's trip to the Chinese capital looks premature. In
fact, it appears as if the new top diplomat is going to Beijing at this
moment less to pursue policy objectives than to get a head start on
consolidating her grip on China policymaking inside Washington.
Mrs.
Clinton's most important scheduling mistake is not that she's going to
China, however. It is the stopover that is not on the itinerary. If she
wanted to go to Asia early in her tenure--and that is a generally sound
strategy--she should have reserved time for New Delhi.
India
shares values with the U.S. as well as strategic goals. The
relationship is promising, and there is much to discuss. The secretary
of state would be surprised how much she could advance relations with
the Indians—and how much progress she could make with the Chinese if
they saw her talking to the nation they fear the most.
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