'rate'에 해당되는 글 16건

  1. 2008.12.11 SKorean central bank slashes key interest rate by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.12.06 U.S. Layoffs Surge in November by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.12.05 Short Capital One by CEOinIRVINE
  4. 2008.11.27 China Hacks At Rates by CEOinIRVINE
  5. 2008.11.08 Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent by CEOinIRVINE
  6. 2008.10.29 Rate-cut hopes lift global shares by CEOinIRVINE

South Korea's central bank carried out its biggest interest rate cut ever Thursday, slashing borrowing costs by a full percentage point to a record low in a bid to stave off possible recession.

The Bank of Korea said it was slashing its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate to 3 percent from 4 percent during a regular policy meeting Thursday.

It was the fourth time for the bank to lower the rate in the past two months and exceeded the 0.75 percentage point emergency cut on Oct. 27, previously the largest one.

The rate has gone from 5.25 percent to 3 percent since the cycle of easing began on Oct. 9.

The previous record low for the bank's benchmark rate was 3.25 percent last seen in October 2005.

South Korea's economy slowed in the third quarter and economists are predicting it could falter further next year amid global economic weakness.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

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Government reported a much higher than expected 533,000 jobs evaporated, and the jobless rate reached 6.7%, from 6.5% in October.

In a worrisome sign of further weakening in the U.S. labor market, November saw the highest number of layoffs in the private sector in more than 32 years.

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in November, with 533,000 jobs lost. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, from an unrevised October figure of 6.5%. The prior October nonfarms payroll figure was revised to reflect a larger slide of 320,000, from the initially reported 240,000. Economists had been forecasting a substantially milder payrolls reduction of 350,000 jobs in November but a slightly higher 6.8% rate of joblessness. Employment declined in nearly all major industries, although health care continued to add jobs.

Equities recovered a bit at the markets' open, after plunging in response to the news during premarket trading. The Dow lost 0.7%, or 60 points, to 8,315; the S&P 500 fell 1.0%, or 9.2 points, to 836; and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.8%, or 13 points, to 1,432 during early trading. Bonds rallied, as investors fled to safe haven government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose to 2.61%, from 2.55% late Thursday. The return on the two-year note also increased, to 0.83, from 0.82.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, as recently announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (see “Congratulations, It's A Recession”), the number of unemployed persons increased by 2.7 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 1.7 percentage points with two-thirds of these losses sustained in the last 3 months.

Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, saw November's job losses as a sign that the economy is worsening at a faster than expected rate. "The labor market is in great trouble. Batten down the hatches because the ship is filling with water quick," he said. "The breadth of the job losses across industries is evidence that businesses all through the economy are reacting at the same time. We're seeing outsize job losses and will see more in the coming months because every business knows what's going on, and they're adjusting very rapidly."

The "outsize losses" are "the cost of technology," Naroff remarked, as instant access to information allows businesses of all sizes to react on a hair trigger to live economic data. However, he believes there is an upside: "The period of job losses may actually be shorter than in previous cycles as a result of the compression of the adjustment process where we all reacting at the same time."

The government also reported that wages rose 7 cents per hour, or 0.4%, in November. As unemployment continues to mount, it is likely that pay increases will be tempered in the months ahead.

The ADP Employer Services had a more coservative estimate of losses to the American job market Wednesday, when it reported that 250,000 jobs had disappeared during the month of November. (See “ADP Points Way Down On Payrolls Figures.") The Fed's Beige Book, which was released Wednesday, also reflected slumping economic activity. (See "Beige Book Bleak.")

Monday's official confirmation that the American economy has been contracting was not a huge surprise, considering the copious signs indicating a slowdown that had preceded it. Payroll employment has declined every month in 2008. Housing prices will have plunged an estimated 10.0% nationally this year, with more declines expected in 2009. U.S. gross domestic product first declined in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The confluence of worrying indicators has pushed consumer confidence to the steepest decline on record in October. This widespread pessimism has put the brakes on spending for everything from automobiles to holiday gifts, hurting businesses further. The competition for scarce dollars has lead to price cutting that some warn could point to a vicious deflationary cycle like that of the Great Depression, should a widespread drop in prices occur.




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Short Capital One

Business 2008. 12. 5. 09:57

Credit card defaults could rise to 10% in the next quarter, as borrowers throw in the towel and stop chasing lifestyles they can't afford.

This is likely just a preamble for 2009, when default rates could spike much higher, according to Innovest Strategic Value Advisors. But even the 10% figure is much higher than previously anticipated, and credit cards could follow mortgages as the next great calamity.

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The reasons for the expected rise in defaults are manifold, according to Innovest. New credit cards will be harder to come by as banks try to rebuild their tattered balance sheets. This will make it harder for leveraged consumers to roll their balances over to new lenders. Meredith Whitney, the widely-quoted analyst from Oppenheimer & Co., noted that the U.S. credit industry could pull back as much as $2 trillion over the next 18 months because of risk aversion and changes in regulations.

The surprise is that the credit card industry's own belated attempts to whip itself into shape are causing the damage, according to Laura Nishikawa, an analyst at Innovest. She noted that credit card issuers are helping drive debtors into default by reducing credit lines, limiting access to home credit lines and, as mentioned, killing roll-overs. Nishikawa said these measures have had unintended consequences and are driving customers away from paying their bills.

Partly to blame for the upcoming correction, of course, is the credit card lifestyle. According to Innovest, since 1999, as wages have stagnated credit card debt outstanding has risen by almost 80%. It's only gotten worse as access to home equity lines have been shut down. Rather than stop shopping people have simply put their purchases on plastic.

Walter Todd, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates was quoted by the Calgary Herald in late November, noting that there has never been this much consumer debt with unemployment nearing 8%: "It's hard to run a model because it's never happened before."

The worst is yet to come, Innovest says, because 2006's bankruptcy reforms have caused a delayed reaction in defaults. The firm expects the full tide of defaults to roll in early in 2009. Happy inauguration, President Obama.

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China Hacks At Rates

Business 2008. 11. 27. 04:05

China Hacks At Rates

Parmy Olson

Beijing sharply cuts interest rates to aid the country's faltering economy.

China Hacks At Rates

Parmy Olson, 11.26.08, 11:50 AM EST

Beijing sharply cut interest rates to aid the country's faltering economy.

China is scrambling to prop up its economy. The People's Bank of China made a 108-basis-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday after the markets closed, accelerating its recent policy of monetary loosening in the face of slowing exports and industrial production.

Though a rate cut was expected by the central bank, its magnitude--the largest since the Asian financial crisis in October 1997--was surprising. "Bottom line is the Chinese authorities think the economy is slowing down fast," said Nigel Rendell, a senior emerging market strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "It would not be unusual to cut by around 25 basis points--to do more than four times that highlights the downside risks."

Commodities firmed up on expectations of stronger demand from China, following the lowering of interest rates. Crude futures jumped $2.24, to $53.01 a barrel, on the Nymex; copper futures were up 6 cents, at $1.7140 a pound.

Earlier this week, the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in China to 7.5%, from 9.2%, though many economists expect an even slower rate of expansion, of anywhere between 2.0% and 7.0%.

This is the fourth time in three months that Beijing has reduced Chinese interest rates, but the several prior reductions, in October and August, were by just 27 basis points each time. China's benchmark rate now stands at 2.52%. The central bank also lowered its reserve requirements by 200 basis points for large banks and by 100 basis points for smaller banks on Wednesday.

The government has meanwhile been shifting fiscal gears as well, announcing on Nov. 9 a $586.0 billion fiscal stimulus plan. China is keenly monitoring the economic moves made by its key export partner, the United States, where consumer spending has recently slowed. (See "Americans Earn More, Spend Less.") Exports represented 37.1% of China's nominal gross domestic product in 2007. "I think China is looking at what's happening to consumers in the U.S. and what is likely to happen in the coming months," said Rendell. "They see house prices down, equity prices down and people being made unemployed."

China's economy is also still feeling the impact of previous measures that Beijing made to cool the economy and keep a lid on inflation; it was tightening monetary policy in the first half of this year, when the economy appeared to be growing too quickly. But in October, a lower than expected level of imports for the month showed that China was not picking up the slack from slowing economies elsewhere. (See "China's Disquieting Trade Surplus.")

China's currency actually strengthened slightly after the rate cut: the U.S. dollar bought 6.82 yuan late Wednesday in Beijing, down from the 6.83 yuan it bought on Thursday.

Rendell expects the currency to stay between 6.80 and 6.90 against the dollar, which is the range around which it has hovered since June. If exports suffered more markedly, the analyst said Beijing might let the yuan weaken further in 2009. But, given that China still has a notable current account deficit, there would undoubtedly be strong international pressure to keep it from going down that route any time soon, which would put struggling exporters in the West at a disadvantage.

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WASHINGTON -

The nation's unemployment rate bolted to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October as another 240,000 jobs were cut, far worse than economists expected and stark proof the economy is deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid pace.

The new snapshot, released Friday by the Labor Department, showed the crucial jobs market quickly eroding. The jobless rate zoomed to 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent in September, matching the rate in March 1994.

Unemployment has now surpassed the high seen after the last recession in 2001. The jobless rate peaked at 6.3 percent in June 2003.

October's decline marked the 10th straight month of payroll reductions, and government revisions showed that job losses in August and September turned out to be much deeper. Employers cut 127,000 positions in August, compared with 73,000 previously reported. A whopping 284,000 jobs were axed in September, compared with the 159,000 jobs first reported.

So far this year, a staggering 1.2 million jobs have disappeared. Over half of the decrease occurred in the past three months alone.

Although the unemployment report was worse than expected, and Ford Motor Co. (nyse: F - news - people ) reported dismal third-quarter results and announced plans to cut more than 2,000 additional white-collar jobs, Wall Street investors appeared to take it all in stride. The Dow Jones industrial average was up more than 190 points in morning trading.

About 10.1 million people were unemployed in October, an increase of 2.8 million over the past year. A year ago, the unemployment rate stood at 4.8 percent.

President Bush said the dismal employment figures reflect "the difficult challenges confronting the economy" and urged the country to have patience, saying a flurry of unprecedented government measures - including a $700 billion financial bailout package - will take time to work.

"I understand that Americans deeply concerned about the challenges facing our economy, but our economy has overcome great challenges before, and we can be confident that it will do so again," Bush said.

The employment market is much weaker than economists expected. They were forecasting the unemployment rate to climb to 6.3 percent in October and for payrolls to fall by around 200,000.

"The U.S. recession is deepening," said Michael Gregory, economist at BMO Capital Markets Economics. The final quarter of this year is getting off to a "particularly ugly" start, he said.

Job losses were widespread, reflecting the mounting carnage from a trio of crises - housing, credit and financial.

Factories cut 90,000 jobs, the most since July 2003. Construction companies got rid of 49,000 jobs with heavy losses in home building. Retailers cut payrolls by 38,000. Professional and business services reduced employment by 45,000. Financial activities cut 24,000 jobs, with heavy losses in mortgage banking and at securities firms. Leisure and hospitality axed 16,000 positions.

All those losses more than swamped some gains elsewhere, including in the government, as well as in education and health care.

Racing to assemble his new Democratic Cabinet, President-elect Barack Obama will huddle with economic advisers later on Friday. His team has been in close contact with the Bush administration to pave the way for a smooth hand-off of power.

All the economy's woes - a housing collapse, mounting foreclosures, hard-to-get credit and financial market upheaval - will confront Obama when he assumes office early next year. And, the employment situation is likely to get worse.

Many expect the jobless rate to climb to 8 percent, possibly higher, next year. In the 1980-1982 recession, the unemployment rate rose as high as 10.8 percent before inching down.

The grim numbers spurred calls from Democrats on Capitol Hill to provide fresh relief. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats, in a lame-duck session later this month, will push to enact another round of economic stimulus of around $100 billion, possibly including provisions to create jobs through big public works projects.

White House press secretary Dana Perino appeared to suggest that additional action may not be needed.

"Today's employment numbers are a stark reminder of how critical it is we keep focused on utilizing the tools we now have to return our country to the strong job creation we had in recent years," Perino said. "We know what the main problems are tight credit and housing markets and we have the tools to solve them."

Workers with jobs saw only modest wages gains. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.21 in October, a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month. Over the past year, wages have grown 3.5 percent, but paychecks aren't stretching that far because high food, energy and other prices has propelled overall inflation at a faster pace.

To prevent the country from sinking into a deep and painful recession, the Federal Reserve last week ratcheted down interest rates to 1 percent and left the door open to further reductions.

The economy has lost its footing in just a few months. It contracted at a 0.3 percent pace in the July-September quarter, signaling the onset of a likely recession. It was the worst showing since 2001 recession, and reflected a massive pullback by consumers.

As U.S. consumers watch jobs disappear, they'll probably retrench even further, spelling more trouble for the sinking economy.

That's why analysts predict the economy is still shrinking in the current October-December quarter and will contract further in the first quarter of next year. All that more than fulfills a classic definition of a recession: two straight quarters of contracting economic activity.

Associated Press Writer Jennifer Loven contributed to this report.


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Hopes of a federal rate cut lift global shares
The Fed, led by Ben Bernanke, will announce its rate-cut decision this afternoon. (Getty Images/File)

Hopes of a federal rate cut lift global shares

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia extended a global rally Wednesday as rate-cut hopes bolstered investors.

In the U.S., futures declined a day after the Dow Jones industrial average posted its second largest single-day point gain ever.

Futures give an indication of how markets may open when trading begins in New York.

Most European markets rose. By midday, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 4.9% and the CAC-40 in France was 6.5% higher. But Germany's DAX was down 1.3%.

Stocks in Asia mostly advanced. Tokyo's Nikkei index soared 7.7% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.6%. In Seoul, however, the KOSPI slipped 3%, giving up earlier gains

Investors are betting that central banks worldwide will further slash interest rates to boost the sagging global economy.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates to 1% at the conclusion of its two-day meeting Wednesday. The policy decision is due at 2:15 p.m. ET.

The Bank of Japan is due to announce a rate decision Friday. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are both scheduled to deliberate interest rates next week.

Rate-cut optimism helped the blue-chip Dow surge 889 points, or 10.9%, on Tuesday. It was the Dow's second-biggest one-day point gain, following a 936-point rally two weeks ago. The percentage gain was the sixth-biggest for the index.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 10.8% and the Nasdaq composite added 9.5%.

Matt King, chief investment officer at Bell Investment, said the rally may signal the end of the protracted market downturn.

"I'm not 100% sure if we're going to take off from here - I think that might be a little bit too optimistic - but I do think we've seen the worst of this," King told CNN Radio.

 

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