Analysts say third-quarter results are likely to be dragged down by the global economic crisis
High tech, an industry that once seemed shielded from the U.S. financial crisis, has grown increasingly vulnerable. Evidence will begin arriving of just how much impact the meltdown has had on some of the nation's biggest tech companies when they release results for the third quarter and issue outlooks for the make-or-break yearend period.
The Nasdaq stock market has tumbled, and analysts have slashed growth and share-price forecasts for a range of tech bellwethers, from chipmakers to consumer electronics giants to vendors of telecommunications gear, as customers tighten their belts and slash spending plans. Companies reporting in the coming days and weeks include Intel (INTC), eBay (EBAY), Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOG).
Falling demand for computers and the chips needed to run them is likely to show up in results released by Intel, the world's largest semiconductor maker, which reports on Oct. 14. Analysts expect Intel to report a 34¢ per-share profit on sales of $10.27 billion, but they'll be on the lookout for any signal that they should reduce fourth-quarter projections for profit of 40¢ per share on sales of $10.87 billion. Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports on Oct. 16; analysts see it posting third-quarter sales of $1.4 billion and a loss of 40¢ a share. They expect a 25¢-per-share loss on sales of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter.
A Lower-Cost Apple Laptop?
On Oct. 9 market researcher iSuppli trimmed its forecast for 2008 worldwide semiconductor revenue growth by a half-percentage point, to $280 billion. "We had already begun to see signs of problems among chip companies before the credit crisis hit," says iSuppli analyst Dale Ford. Gartner (IT) said sales of semiconductor capital equipment, the gear chipmakers use in their factories, will decline more than 25% this year and continue to slide in 2009.
The first big computer maker to release figures for the September quarter is Apple (AAPL), which reports on Oct. 21. There's growing concern that Apple may be experiencing a slowdown (BusinessWeek.com, 09/24/08) in Mac sales. "Cracks may be starting to form in its PC business, where the firm has enjoyed growth driven by the iPod and iPhone halo effect, and by broad-based share gains," wrote FBR Research analyst Craig Berger in a research note issued on Oct. 8. Berger estimates that Apple has cut its orders by 17%. The company is expected to report sales of $8.07 billion and per-share profit of $1.11. For the December period, Apple is expected to record $10.83 billion in sales and a $1.70 per-share profit.
Apple is also set to take the wraps off a new line of notebooks on Oct. 14. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says he expects Apple to reveal, among other things, a notebook that sells for $899 to $999, less than the company's other computers. A lower-priced notebook would help explain a drop in gross margins that the company warned about (BusinessWeek.com 07/22/08) when it last reported earnings in July.
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