Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, September 24, 2008; 10:46 AM

The key legs that have propped up the U.S. economy so far this year appear to be weakening, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said today, as he laid out a set of major risks and headwinds American consumers and businesses in the months ahead.

Foremost among them is the tightening of credit conditions, Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee in his second consecutive day of congressional testimony. Bernanke repeated his call for massive government purchases of shaky mortgage assets as a move to free up lending in the nation's financial sector and keep credit flowing through the economy.

"The intensification of financial stress in recent weeks, which will make lenders still more cautious about extending credit to households and business, could prove a significant further drag on growth," said Bernanke.

As Congress considers the Bush administration's $700 billion bailout plan to rescue the U.S. financial system that Bernanke and others say needs to be passed by Friday, Bernanke laid out a more dismal outlook for the U.S. economy.

His testimony did not signal that the Fed is poised to cut interest rates, but suggested that Fed policymakers may be more open to it at their late-October meeting than they were at their previous meeting last week, particularly if the credit crisis continues to deepen or there is new evidence that the economy is getting sharply worse.

But financial stress isn't the only area where Bernanke described trouble.

Americans' spending fell in June and July, and based on early data it looks to have fallen again in August.

"Although the retrenchment in household spending has been widespread, purchases of motor vehicles have dropped off particularly sharply," Bernanke said.

He noted that despite some signs of stabilization in home sales, sharply fewer new homes are being started, which could put further downward pressure on construction-related fields.

And while business investment held up through the first part of the year, "a range of factors, including weakening fundamentals and constraints on credit, are likely to result in a considerable slowdown in the construction of commercial and office buildings in coming quarters," the Fed chairman said. He noted that spending on business equipment and software also appear poised to fall.

Moreover, international trade has been a big driver of growth through the first part of the year, but that appears set to dissipate in the months ahead amid a slowing global economy and deterioration in world financial markets.

The one bright spot in the outlook has been falling prices for energy. But Bernanke said that the inflation outlook remains "highly uncertain," and that "the fluctuations in oil prices in the past few days illustrate the difficulty of predicting the future course of commodity prices."


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Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.

Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

Last week's near-meltdown in the financial markets and the subsequent debate in Washington over a proposed government bailout of troubled financial institutions have made the economy even more important in the minds of voters. Fully 50 percent called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago. In contrast, just 9 percent cited the Iraq war as their most important issue, its lowest of the campaign.

But voters are cool toward the administration's initial efforts to deal with the current crisis. Forty-seven percent said they approve of the steps taken by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial markets, while 42 percent said they disapprove.

Anxiety about the economic situation is widespread. Just over half of the poll respondents -- 52 percent -- believe the economy has moved into a serious long-term decline. Eight in 10 are concerned about the overall direction of the economy, nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances.

Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.

Much of the movement has come among college-educated whites. Whites without college degrees favor McCain by 17 points, while those with college degrees support Obama by 9 points. No Democrat has carried white, college-educated voters in presidential elections dating back to 1980, but they were a key part of Obama's coalition in the primaries.

The political climate is rapidly changing along with the twists and turns on Wall Street, and it remains unclear whether recent shifts in public opinion will fundamentally alter the highly competitive battle between McCain and Obama. About two in 10 voters are either undecided or remain "movable" and open to veering to another candidate. Nevertheless, the close relationship between voters' focus on the economy and their overall support for the Democratic nominee has boosted Obama.

Among white voters, economic anxiety translates into greater support for Obama. He is favored by 54 percent of whites who said they are concerned about the direction of the economy, but by just 10 percent of those who are less worried.

The survey also found that the strong initial public reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, has cooled somewhat. Overall, her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent.


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Francesco Scognamiglio

Fashion 2008. 9. 24. 13:43

MILAN, September 22, 2008
By Nicole Phelps
As the kids say, Francesco Sconamiglio has mad skills. He can cut a lean, mean suit with the best of them—but he'll never graduate to the big leagues like his front-row pals Tommaso Aquilano and Roberto Rimondi have until he turns down the kink factor. The show opened with a respectable-enough cropped ivory jacket; unfortunately, it was worn with see-through plastic trousers. The second look, a coat-dress with an asymmetrical neckline that purposely exposed one breast, was even more risqué. The blouses were lovingly crafted, with spills of ruffles at the throat or, more unusually, with shoulder pads made from feathers—but, again, because they were so sheer, their appeal will be limited.

A series of little white dresses (bracelet-sleeved, one-shouldered, or strapless, decorated with sculptural rosettes or ruffles) showed Scognamiglio at his best: just this side of flamboyant, but relevant at retail, too. When he starts thinking more along these lines, he'll start drawing the crowds that his technique deserves.

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