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It belonged to Larry Kissell, a Democratic candidate for Congress, and Miller was eager to tell him why, at 49, he is quietly panicked.

He showed up for work one day at Alandale Knitting to find the factory doors locked. He got a job mixing mud at a tile factory, but it relocated to Mexico. He moved 100 miles to work in a meatpacking plant but injured his back lifting an 80-pound vat of scraps.

"The jobs are just disappearing overnight," Miller said. "Something's got to change." That's why he is voting for Barack Obama, and why he will scroll down the ballot to mark Kissell's name, too.

It was Kissell's fourth trip to the church, and he prays that African Americans turning out in unprecedented numbers for Obama will push him across the finish line as well.

Kissell is one of at least 10 white Democrats in white-hot competitive U.S. House races who are counting on a surge of black voters to carry them into office. Most are challenging incumbent Republicans, and they are central to Democratic hopes of picking up as many as 25 additional seats, strengthening the party's control of the House.

Many of these races are in Southern states where African Americans make up a sizable minority. But the dynamic is also at play in such states as Maryland, Ohio and Connecticut.

As many as 70 percent of voting-age African Americans could cast ballots on Election Day, said David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, who studies black voter patterns. That number would far exceed the 56 percent who voted in 2004 and bust the record for black participation set in the 1968 election.

There is a certain irony in the pivotal role that blacks could play in congressional elections, given how some of the districts were drawn, Bositis said. "When these districts were designed, certain assumptions were made about what black turnout would be so that the district would pretty much favor Republicans," Bositis said. "Now, all of a sudden, you have an election . . . where African Americans are enormously excited and mobilized. Not only that, you have the Obama campaign going out of its way to make sure these voters are registered and are going to turn out."

Add the dampened mood among Republicans and the situation "has the potential of putting the Democratic candidates over the top," Bositis added.

A hint of how Obama might affect congressional races came during a special election in Mississippi this spring. In the contest to fill a vacancy in the 1st Congressional District, Republicans tried to link Democrat Travis Childers, who is white, to Obama, as a way to turn off white voters in the conservative district. Instead, black turnout doubled in the two counties with the largest African American populations and Childers won.

Hundreds of miles north, black voters are playing a decisive role in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, home to the manicured estates of Greenwich and Darien. Republican incumbent Christopher Shays is fighting a vigorous challenge by Democrat Jim Himes, an investment banker-turned-social entrepreneur.

Is McCain Coming Back?

Does recent polling suggest a McCain comeback at the right time or something else? Photo by Ricky Carioti -- The Washington Post

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Is McCain Coming Back?

Does recent polling suggest a McCain comeback at the right time or something else? Photo by Ricky Carioti -- The Washington Post

Amid the wall-to-wall coverage of Barack Obama's $150 million fundraising take in September and the endorsement of the Illinois senator on Sunday by former Secretary of State Colin Powell, the campaign of his Republican opponent -- John McCain -- believes the media is missing one critical thing: the Arizona senator is making up ground.

McCain advisers insist that since last Wednesday's final debate in New York, their candidate has slowly but surely cut into Obama's edge -- carving a double-digit lead down to the mid-single digits in both national polling and surveys conducted in key battleground states.

While the final debate was widely cast by the media -- and by a series of instant reaction polls -- as a win for Obama, McCain's senior strategy team argues that it was, in fact, a critical turning point in their favor in the contest.

"That debate injected taxes, ideological difference and abortion" into the dialogue, said a McCain operative granted anonymity to speak candidly about strategic matters.

The result, according to the source, was significant gains for McCain among white men -- those with and without a college degree -- as well as with "soft" Republicans (a term to describe voters with only a loose party affiliation) and voters who consider life issues as central to their vote for president.

The bump-up in support from white men -- an absolutely critical demographic for McCain if he hopes to come from behind -- also explains the relentless focus on "Joe the Plumber" a.k.a. Joe Wurzelbacher, a man made famous by his confrontation with Obama last week.

Don't trust the McCain internal poll numbers? Look to a series of tracking surveys over the last week, the campaign argues.

Among the surveys they cite:

• An Oct. 19 Gallup tracking poll that shows Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 46 percent according to a "traditional likely voter model" it has employed for past elections which, Gallup's Web site explains, "factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention." It's worth noting that among registered voters in the Gallup survey, Obama held a 10-point edge, and in the other (broader) likely voter model presented by Gallup the Illinois senator led 51 percent to 44 percent.

• A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll that on Oct. 11 showed Obama ahead 49 percent to 43 percent and, one week later, had Obama's lead at narrower 48 percent to 45 percent. Zogby, a favorite of Matt Drudge, is looked at somewhat more skeptically by some within the polling establishment.

• A poll jointly conducted by Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, and Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster, for George Washington University that had Obama at 49 percent and McCain at 45 percent. That survey was in the field Oct. 12 to Oct. 16, however, meaning that only one day of polling for it was conducted after the Oct. 15 debate at Hofstra University.

• A CNN/Opinion Research survey out today has Obama at 51 percent and McCain at 46 percent.

Convinced? Is it possible that the McCain comeback is happening right under our noses and is not being picked up due to the media's focus on the possibility of an Obama presidency?

Maybe, but a detailed look at the polling and the national playing field suggests that McCain's growth -- to the extent he has enjoyed it -- over the past week is as likely due to a natural tightening as election day approaches as any sort of major surge in support.

From Sept. 7 -- the day that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were bailed out by the U.S. government -- through the first week in October, the news was unequivocally bad for McCain and his party.

Voters overwhelmingly blamed the GOP -- particularly President George W. Bush -- for the economic morass. McCain's numbers tanked nationally and in key battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida among others) as did the numbers for Republicans seeking Senate and House seats.

In that free-fall it's possible (and, perhaps, likely) that McCain's poll standing dropped below what any generic Republican presidential candidate could expect to receive in the way of support. During that period, voters who were almost certainly in McCain's camp before the financial crisis jumped ship -- heading either to the undecided camp or to Obama's side.

The last few days -- particularly given McCain's return to a very traditional "big government, tax raising liberal" attack against Obama -- may well have brought some of those voters who left McCain in a huff back into the fold as the debate reminded them of why they vote for Republicans in the first place.

But, simply re-claiming voters long expected to be on your side (and we are thinking of life voters in particular here) is not the same thing as turning a corner with critical independent voters -- either nationally or in battleground states.

While the polling outlook may well have improved marginally for McCain over the past week, the structural problems revealed in the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll remain.

The election is a referendum on the economy and which candidate is better suited to correct its problems. Due to the strong sense that the country is headed off in the wrong direction AND the huge unpopularity of Bush, Obama is far better positioned to win the economic argument than McCain.

And, never forget the continued financial advantage that Obama enjoys over McCain. It's extremely difficult for a candidate trailing in the polls to overcome being outspent three to one and, in some cases, far worse without some sort of major external event intruding.

In sum, can we buy that "Joe the Plumber" and Obama's pledge to "spread the wealth" has helped bring white men back to McCain's side? Absolutely. Is it enough to change our current analysis that Obama is the clear frontrunner to be the next president of the United States? No.

updated 17 minutes ago

"We're going to be in a tight race and we're going to be up late on election night. That's just -- I'm confident of that. I've been in too many campaigns, my friend, not to sense that things are headed our way," McCain said Sunday on Fox News.

Sen. Barack Obama leads McCain by 6 points, according to CNN's latest average of national polls.

"I love being the underdog. You know, every time that I've gotten ahead, somehow I've messed it up," the Republican candidate said.

Asked if Gov. Sarah Palin has become a drag on his ticket, McCain said, "As a cold political calculation, I could not be more pleased."

"She has excited and energized our base. She is a direct counterpoint to the liberal feminist agenda for America. She has a wonderful family. She's a reformer. She's a conservative. She's the best thing that could have happened to my campaign and to America," he said.

In response to a question from Fox's Chris Wallace, McCain said he has considered the possibility that he could lose, but added, "I don't dwell on it."

"I've had a wonderful life. I have to go back and live in Arizona, and be in the United States Senate representing them, and with a wonderful family, and daughters and sons that I'm so proud of, and a life that's been blessed," he said.

"I'm the luckiest guy you have ever interviewed and will ever interview. I'm the most fortunate man on earth, and I thank God for it every single day."

McCain said if things don't turn out his way on Election Day, "Don't feel sorry for John McCain, and John McCain will be concentrating on not feeling sorry for himself."

CNN's latest poll of polls shows Obama drawing 49 percent of voters nationwide, while McCain stands at 43 percent.

The 6-point lead represents no change from a CNN poll of polls released late last week, though it is 2 points smaller than one week ago.

The national poll of polls consists of three surveys: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (October 15-17), Gallup (October 15-17) and Diageo/Hotline (October 15-17). It does not have a sampling error.

McCain on Sunday was campaigning in Ohio, the state that put President Bush over the top in his re-election bid four years ago.

The Arizona senator had rallies scheduled in Westerville and Toledo, Ohio.

The most recent CNN poll of polls in Ohio suggests that 48 percent of voters there are backing Obama and 46 percent are supporting McCain.

Obama on Sunday was campaigning in North Carolina, a once reliably Republican state in presidential contests that is now up for grabs.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. The most recent CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll in the state has the contest deadlocked at 49 percent for each candidate.

Obama's campaign events come on the heels of a big endorsement from Colin Powell, the former secretary of state. Watch what Powell says about Obama »

"I think he is a transformational figure, he is a new generation coming onto the world stage, onto the American stage, and for that reason I'll be voting for Sen. Barack Obama," Powell said as he announced his endorsement Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."

As for the running mates, Palin on Sunday had a rally scheduled in New Mexico, a state that narrowly went for President Bush four years ago.

"In the month of September, we raised over $150 million and added 632,000 new donors for a total 3.1 million donors to date," the campaign announced.

"The average donation for the month was less than $100."

The previous record, also set by Obama, was $67 million.

The number explains why Obama has been able to saturate the airwaves in swing states, and afford luxuries such as the half hour infomercials he plans to run later this month.

It also answers definitively the question of whether it was strategically shrewd to forgo public funds.

Republican National Committee officials have expressed concerns about the potential for abuse with small dollar fundraising on this scale. They have noted examples of fake names used to donate through the Internet. The Obama campaign has said it has vetted donations as fast as possible and would return any questionable contributions.

The number of questionable contributions identified at this point is tiny in the face of the kind of money the campaign reported today.

Plouffe describes the haul as evidence of the power of ordinary people.

"When Barack entered this race, he put his faith in the power of ordinary supporters like you coming together and building a movement for change from the bottom up," his e-mail said.

"That's exactly how we got this far -- and you should feel proud of all we have accomplished together."

Obama has courted Republicans all along, but in Powell he gets party crossover plus military credibility. Powell is a retired U.S. Army general and served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under the first President Bush.

As Secretary of State under the current President Bush, Powell helped to build the case for the Iraq war, a role that hurt him with many Democrats and moderates, who had viewed him as somewhat apolitical. Powell made his endorsement today on the NBC program "Meet the Press."

Powell said he had watched both Obama and Sen. John McCain in the last "six or seven weeks," since the national political conventions, and paid special attention to how they reacted to the nation's worsening economic situation.

"I must say, he seemed a little unsure about how to approach the problem," Powell said of McCain.

"He didn't have a complete grasp of the economic problems we have."

Powell also expressed concerns about McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. "I don't believe she's ready to be President of the United States, which is the job of vice president," Powell said, adding that it raised "some questions in my mind" about McCain's judgment.

As for Obama, Powell said, "I think that he has a definitive way of doing business that would serve us well."

McCain sought to shrug off the endorsement, telling Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday he has always "admired and respected" Powell but that the endorsement of his rival "doesn't come as a surprise."

"I'm also very pleased to have the endorsement of four former secretaries of state, Secretaries Kissinger, Baker, Eagleburger and Haig. And I'm proud to have the endorsement of well over 200 retired Army generals and admirals," McCain said. "But I respect and continue to respect and admire Secretary Powell."

McCain dismissed Powell's suggestion that Obama is ready to lead the country. "We have a respectful disagreement, and I think the American people will pay close attention to our message for the future and keeping America secure," he said.

Powell emphasized that Obama is seeking to build a broad coalition. "He's thinking that all villages have values, all towns have values, not just small towns have values," Powell said, in an apparent reference to remarks Palin made earlier this week that she enjoyed visiting the "pro-America" areas of the country.

The retired general continued that "John McCain is as non-discriminatory as anyone I know," but he expressed serious concerns about his campaign's, and the Republican Party's recent focus on Obama's past association with William Ayers and robocalls the campaign has placed in battleground states this past week.

"I think this goes too far. I think it's made the McCain campaign look a little narrow. I look at these kinds of approaches to the campaign, and they trouble me. The party has moved further to the right," he said.

Powell's endorsement of Obama also has a personal aspect of repudiation for McCain. In early 2000, well before the primaries were over, when asked by The Post's Tom Ricks who might be his secretary of State, McCain responded without hesitation: "Colin Powell."

Powell said he would not campaign for Obama, noting the short amount of time that remains until Election Day. He later said he is "in no way interested in a return to government," but said he would consider any offers made by the next president.

He said that if his endorsement of Obama were focused solely on the historic nature of his candidacy, "I could have done this six, ten, eight months ago."

Powell appeared uncomfortable throughout the interview and cleared his throat several times while talking to Brokaw. He made a clear effort towards the end of the interview to make it clear his endorsement was "not out of any lack of respect or admiration of John McCain."

He said: "I strongly believe that at this point in America's history, we need a president that will not just continue basically the policies we have been following in recent years. I think we need a transformational figure. I think we need a president who is a generational change."

Powell also spent several moments discussing the false rumors that Obama is a Muslim, saying he was upset he had even heard the rumors from senior Republicans.

"What if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country?" he asked. "The answer is no."