'Obama'에 해당되는 글 121건

  1. 2008.10.16 Candidates hit back on Web attacks by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2008.10.14 Will Obama suffer from the 'Bradley effect'? by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2008.10.14 Obama Widens Lead in Four Key States by CEOinIRVINE
  4. 2008.10.14 Obama: The $100 Million Man? by CEOinIRVINE
  5. 2008.10.13 Obama & McCain by CEOinIRVINE
  6. 2008.10.12 Issue of Race Creeps Into Campaign (US presidential) by CEOinIRVINE
  7. 2008.10.10 Obama in position to steal Virginia from GOP by CEOinIRVINE
  8. 2008.10.08 Debate highlights stark differences by CEOinIRVINE
  9. 2008.10.08 McCain vs. Obama: Round Two by CEOinIRVINE
  10. 2008.10.07 Obama widens lead in national poll by CEOinIRVINE
Candidates hit back on Web attacks

updated 59 minutes ago


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Barack Obama is not a Muslim, and John McCain did not tell the television show "60 Minutes" he was a war criminal who intentionally bombed women and children in Vietnam.

The Democratic presidential campaign of Barack Obama and Joe Biden has dealt with several Internet rumors.

The Democratic presidential campaign of Barack Obama and Joe Biden has dealt with several Internet rumors.

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Joe Biden is not planning to step aside in favor of Hillary Clinton as vice president, and Sarah Palin did not order books banned from the library when she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.

But if you have spent any time browsing the Internet this year, you may have read rumors to the contrary.

All these stories -- and more -- are being e-mailed to friends and family and posted on blogs.

And they are all false.

Heard that Obama was really born in Kenya and thus not eligible to be president? Wrong.

Heard that Palin was a member of the Alaska Independence Party? Nope, she wasn't.

But these stories are potentially damaging to the presidential campaigns of Obama and McCain, Washington communications expert Ron Bonjean warned, so it is critical to rebut them as firmly as possible.

"Fighting rumors on the Internet takes hypervigilance and a lot of caffeine. Left unchecked, these rumors can get out of control, because perception is fact," he said.

Obama and Palin are the subject of the largest number of e-mails, said Rich Buhler, founder of the fact-checking Web site, truthorfiction.com.

"The last two election cycles, there have been rumors about each of the candidates, but there has been nothing like this election," said Buhler, who has been running his nonpartisan site for 10 years.

"The number of Obama e-rumors has been huge, the stuff claiming that he was a Muslim. There are probably 15 or 20 Obama e-rumors. They have circulated massively," he said.

Buhler attributes the popularity of Obama e-mails to the fact that he is a "phenomenon."

"He is new, he is a threat" to some people, Buhler said. "When McCain named Sarah Palin, she became a phenomenon, so there were immediately a number of rumors about her, and now it's the Obama-Palin hit parade."

That's why both campaigns make pushback a priority.

Obama's Web site has a section called "Fight the Smears," run by the campaign's rapid-response team.

"Here's the general philosophy: vigilance, force, speed, and use the network we have created to spread the truth via every avenue," said Hari Sevugan, a spokesman for Obama's rapid-response effort.

"The idea of having such a large network of supporters is that they can reach an even larger network of friends, family and colleagues, and get the truth out," he said.

"If you look at 'Fight the Smears,' it also has an action center. It's not just facts -- it's making sure those facts get out," he explained.

The campaign does not underestimate the damage unsubstantiated rumors can do, especially ones that come directly from friends or family.

"These things take root if you let them sit too long," Sevugan cautioned.

The Obama rumors have spurred action both for and against the Illinois senator -- including a suit filed in Pennsylvania arguing that he is not eligible to be president because he is not a "natural-born U.S. citizen," and a Web site at isobamamuslim.com that contains a single word: "No."

Philip J. Berg illustrates how hard it is to quash rumors once they spread.

The Philadelphia-area lawyer, who filed the suit against Obama's candidacy, is aware that the Web site FactCheck.org has examined Obama's Hawaii birth certificate and ruled it kosher.

But he doesn't believe it.

"FactCheck.org is owned by Annenberg of Chicago, where Obama sat on the board," the lawyer said, dismissing the Web site's verdict.

FactCheck.org describes itself as a "nonpartisan, nonprofit 'consumer advocate' for voters." It is a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

And then there are the rumors that simply cannot be proven or disproved.

One e-mail suggests that McCain behaved obnoxiously at a resort in Fiji before his last run for the presidency in 2000. The University of California-Santa Cruz professor whose name is attached to some versions of the story denies writing it but says she did forward it after a friend sent it to her.

Truthorfiction.com describes it as "unproven," saying research has turned up no evidence to support it.

"So far, we haven't been able to find any substantive information about whether it ever happened and, if so, with whom. We've asked McCain's campaign whether he's ever been to Turtle Island, but they haven't responded," Buhler said.

"There are many e-rumors that are not able to be proven either because the e-rumor does not contain the kinds of facts that can be followed up -- such as name or location -- or because the information in it doesn't pan out," he added.

The McCain campaign does its best to push back against falsehoods about the Arizona Republican senator and his running mate, spokesman Michael Goldfarb said.

"We have set up a Web site, as Gov. Palin has been the victim of a lot of these smears," said Goldfarb, one of the main authors of the campaign's McCain Report blog.

But he said there was only so much a campaign could do to rebut false stories.

"We fight back, but there is a certain segment of the population that is never going to believe that Obama is a Christian, just as there is a certain segment of the population that is never going to believe that Trig Palin is Gov. Palin's son," he lamented.

But his frustration is not primarily with Internet rumors.

"Unfortunately, a lot of the smears against Gov. Palin have been echoed by mainstream media outlets," Goldbfarb said. He cited a September 2 New York Times article saying Palin had been a member of the Alaska Independence Party. The newspaper retracted the story the following day, blaming an AIP official's error.

"It's damaging when it appears on the front page of the New York Times," Goldfarb said.

But Washington public-relations expert Bonjean, for his part, recommended that campaigns try to use the media to help rebut smears.

"The best way to fight Internet rumors is to go straight to the news media and try to get a story published saying 'this is not true,'" he said. "For any site that is promoting this rumor, you want to counter-attack it with the facts."

If the rumor appears on a blog, he said, "flood it with comments from your team, or activate grassroots support. Ask your friends and campaign allies to do it."

Buhler of truthorfiction.com said there is no way to know where most Internet rumors originate.

"Most of these things, you'll never know how they started. They're brush fires," he said.

Bonjean, a former spokesman for House and Senate Republican leaders, said some rumors probably came from "random crazy folks out there who want to perpetuate rumors for the thrill of it."

But some, he suggested, did probably come from "rogue political operatives."

He doubted they were working hand-in-glove with the campaigns, though.

"I would find it highly unlikely they would be taking orders from the campaigns, because if it ever got traced back to headquarters, there would be a lot of trouble."




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(CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain, polls show, but those numbers could be deceiving if the "Bradley effect" comes into play.

Polls show that Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain.

Polls show that Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain.

The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982.

Exit polls showed Bradley leading by a wide margin, and the Democrat thought it would be an early election night.

But Bradley and the polls were wrong. He lost to Republican George Deukmejian.

The theory was that polling was wrong because some voters, who did not want to appear bigoted, said they voted for Bradley even though they did not.

"People will usually tell you how they voted after the election, but we found in the Bradley campaign ... that people were actually not telling us who they voted for," said Charles Henry, who researched

Some analysts say the race could be much closer or even tied if the Bradley effect is factored in. iReport.com: iReporter pleads with voters to 'stop the racism'

"It leaves a question mark over this race, and we won't have the final answer until the votes are counted," said David Gergen, a senior political analyst for CNN.

But there could be an opposite effect, Wilder said.

"There's going to be a reverse Wilder or Bradley effect. ... There are some Republicans who are not going to say out front that they're going to be voting for Obama, but they're going to be, because the economy is what's driving people to consider what's in their best interest," he said.

Some analysts say the Bradley effect can account for 6 percentage points against an African-American candidate.

Michelle Obama told CNN's Larry King that a lot has changed since Bradley lost.

"That was several decades ago, and I think there's been growth and movement," she said. "I just believe that the issues are going to weigh in people's hearts more so as they go into the voting booths this time around."

Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said last week that he thinks the Bradley effect could cost Obama several battleground states -- and possibly the presidency.

Race "is still a problem in this country," Brown told CNN. "It goes away when there are other troubles that are more challenging, and right now, whether or not we survive in the economy is more challenging. But race could rear its ugly head. I just hope it doesn't before November 4."

In the past 15 years or so, there's been no indication in the polls that the Bradley effect has been a factor in statewide races.

Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst, said that if there is racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the polls. And Keating Holland, CNN's polling director, pointed out another important caveat:

"We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national elections," he said.

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Obama Widens Lead in Four Key States

Economy Remains Top Voter Concern

By Chris Cillizza washingtonpost.com
Tuesday, October 14, 2008; 6:32 AM

Barack Obama widened his lead considerably over John McCain in four key battleground states during the past three weeks, providing further evidence that the economic crisis has greatly enhanced the Democrat's advantage with just 21 days left before Election Day.

Obama holds double-digit margins over McCain in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin and carries a nine-point advantage over his Republican rival in Colorado, according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

Obama's ascendancy in these key states mirrors his growing lead in national polling. The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey put Obama at 53 percent to McCain's 43 percent, while the daily Gallup tracking poll showed Obama holding a similar lead of 51 percent to 41 percent on Monday.

The latest polling confirms that the financial crisis and stock market crash that has gripped Wall Street and Washington over the past month has increased the importance of economic matters to voters -- particularly in the industrial Midwest -- and accrued almost exclusively to Obama's benefit.

In Michigan, more than six in ten voters said the economy was the "single most important issue" in deciding their vote. Among likely voters, Obama increased his lead over McCain from a four-point edge in a late September Quinnipiac poll to a whopping 16-point lead in the most recent survey.

Obama's 54 percent to 38 percent lead in Michigan helps to explain why McCain decided to pull down his ads and pull out the majority of his campaign staff from the Wolverine State last week -- choosing to fight, instead, in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine.

The data was similar in Wisconsin and Minnesota where Obama gained 10 points and nine points, respectively, in his margin over McCain since the September Quinnipiac poll; the Illinois senator led McCain in Wisconsin 54 percent to 37 percent, and held a 51 percent to 40 percent edge in Minnesota.

In both states, 58 percent of the sample cited the economy as the leading issue affecting their vote -- nearly six times as many as named any other issue. The Wisconsin number represents a significant shift from the seven-point advantage the Quinnipiac poll showed for Obama in the Badger State in the third week of September. It also stands in contrast to other recent poll data, including a CNN/Time poll done earlier this month, that showed Obama leading 51 percent to 46 percent.

The surveys also indicate that Obama is significantly more trusted on economic issues than McCain. In Wisconsin, 53 percent said Obama "better understands the economy" while just 32 percent chose McCain. The numbers were not much better in Michigan (52 percent Obama/35 percent McCain), Minnesota (49/34) or Colorado (51/39).

A majority of voters in each state said McCain had not shown "effective leadership" in dealing with the financial meltdown. Throughout the past several weeks, McCain has condemned financial executives on Wall Street, offered a few proposed remedies for the crisis, and briefly suspended his campaign to return to Washington to take part in White House talks over a $700 billion rescue plan.

McCain also is being badly hamstrung by a national political environment tipped heavily against his party. Just one in four voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin approve of the job President Bush is doing -- a number reflected in the Post/ABC News national poll where just 23 percent of voters voiced approval for Bush's performance.

For all of the media focus on the presidential debates -- the third and last of which will be held tomorrow at Hofstra University in New York -- the encounters seem to have had little effect in persuading voters.

In each of the four states, between 71 percent and 75 percent of voters said they watched the second presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn., last Tuesday night. And yet, in each of the four states more than eight in ten voters said the debate did not change their vote.

Nearly half of the voters in each state thought Obama had done a better job in the Nashville debate while less than one in five voters said McCain had won the debate.

The Republican problems in these four battleground states weren't limited to the top of the ticket.

In Colorado's open seat Senate race, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall holds a commanding 54 percent to 40 percent lead over former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) has slipped into a dead heat with his Democratic opponent Al Franken; Franken stands at 38 percent to 36 percent for Coleman and 18 percent for independent candidate Dean Barkley.

The polls were conducted from Oct. 8-12. The sample sizes were: 1,019 likely voters in Minnesota, 1,201 likely voters in Wisconsin, 1,088 likely voters in Colorado and 1,043 likely voters in Michigan. Each has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.


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Obama: The $100 Million Man?


How much cash did Obama raise in September? Photo by Romeo Ranoco of Reuters

Barack Obama's massive spending on television -- $21 million for the first week of October alone -- coupled with his decision to buy 30 minutes of prime time television at the end of the month has stoked rumors that the Illinois senator may have shattered all fundraising records for the month of September.

Reports documenting Obama's fundraising aren't due at the Federal Election Commission until Oct. 20 and -- if past is prologue -- his campaign won't release the details of their donations or expenditures until that day.

But, the fact that the information likely won't be available for another week hasn't stopped the political world -- Democrats and Republicans -- from speculating about just how much Obama collected last month.

"With the unprecedented growth in their Internet list and their aggressive fundraising calendar, it is well within the realm of possibility that Obama may raise close to $100 million in one month," said one senior Democratic fundraiser. The source added that Obama could well grow his e-mail list to upwards of nine million people before election day and raise better than $30 million from major donors by that time.

"With the way the dynamics of this race is going -- Obama looking stronger and stronger, while McCain looks more out of touch -- I wouldn't be surprised if Obama easily surpasses $100 million and reaches $115 million plus in September," said another veteran Democratic fundraiser.

Never forget that donors -- big and small -- like to be with the winner. So, the more Obama looks like a winner, the more likely that undecided dollars will head in his direction over the final weeks of the contest.

Obama's best previous one-month fundraising total came in August -- typically a somewhat slow time for political cash collection -- when he raised an eye-popping $67 million and ended the month with $77 million in the bank. (Looking for Obama's monthly fundraising totals so far this year? It's after the jump.)

When contacted by The Fix, the Obama campaign offered no comment about their fundraising totals for the past month. And, it's worth noting, that past speculation about how much money the campaign raised in any given month has usually been wildly inaccurate as so few people even within Obama's inner circle are kept in the loop about his cash collection operation.

Still, it's hard based on the campaign's spending to not assume that Obama is almost certain to have broken his previous fundraising records last month.

According to a Fix calculation of spending in the week beginning Sept. 30 and ending Oct. 6, Obama outspent John McCain roughly three to one -- $21 million to $7 million. (Spending by the Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm helped even the playing field slightly, although Obama still outspent the combined GOP forces by $8 million in that week alone.)

And, late last week, it was revealed that Obama is seeking to buy a roadblock (a coordinated block of time on every national broadcast network) for 8 pm on Oct. 29. He already has purchased a half-hour of TV time on CBS and NBC -- at a cost of roughly $1 million each -- and is seeking time on Fox and ABC as well.

The last candidate to make such a play on broadcast television was Ross Perot way back in 1992. He ran a series of political infomercials, the largest of which -- on Nov. 2, 1992 -- drew 26 million viewers, according to Nielsen.

Watch television (or listen to the radio) in any swing state -- The Fix spent a night in Scranton over the weekend -- and the dominance of Obama over McCain on television becomes readily apparent.

Obama's massive fundraising -- whether it winds up at $70, $80, $90 or $100 million in September (and October) -- justifies the political savvy of the Illinois senator's decision to go back on his previous pledge to accept public financing for the general election.

While McCain, who did accept public funds, is limited to roughly $84 million in the general election, Obama has been free to raise and spend what he likes -- leading to huge spending edges in emerging battlegrounds like Florida, North Carolina and Indiana.

Obama's unprecendented fundraising ability combined with the incredibly toxic political environment (more on that later today) makes the Illinois senator a decided favorite with 22 days remaining before the fall election.

Obama Month by Month Fundraising
January: $36.8 million
February: $56.7 million
March: $42.8 million
April: $31.9 million
May: $23.4 million
June: $54.2 million
July: $51.4 million
August: $67.5 million

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Obama & McCain

Politics 2008. 10. 13. 00:41

McCain-Palin brochures are stacked at the Republican Party's headquarters in Gainesville, Va., waiting to be distributed by volunteers.



McCain-Palin brochures are stacked at the Republican Party's headquarters in Gainesville, Va., waiting to be distributed by volunteers. (By Nikki Kahn -- The Washington Post) 


Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 12, 2008; Page A04

In 2004, Democrats watched as any chance of defeating President Bush slipped away in a wave of Republican turnout that exceeded even the goal-beating numbers that their own side had produced.

Four years later, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign intends to avoid a repeat by building an organization modeled in part on what Karl Rove used to engineer Bush's victory: a heavy reliance on local volunteers to pitch to their own neighbors, micro-targeting techniques to identify persuadable independents and Republicans using consumer data, and a focus on exurban and rural areas.

But in scale and ambition, the Obama organization goes beyond even what Rove built. The campaign has used its record-breaking fundraising to open more than 700 offices in more than a dozen battleground states, pay several thousand organizers and manage tens of thousands more volunteers.

In many states, the Democratic candidate is hewing more closely to the Rove organizational model than is rival Sen. John McCain, whose emphasis on ground operations has been less intensive and clinical than that of his Republican predecessor.

"They've invested in a civic infrastructure on a scale that has never happened," said Marshall Ganz, a labor organizer who worked with César Chávez's farmworker movement and has led training sessions for Obama staff members and volunteers. "It's been an investment in the development of thousands of young people equipped with the skills and leadership ability to mobilize people and in the development of leadership at the local level. It's profound."

But sheer size and scope guarantee little, especially for an operation that is untested on this scale, and the next three weeks will determine whether Obama's approach will become a model for future campaigns or yet another example of how not to do it.

The campaign faces no shortage of challenges. It must meet its ambitious goals for voter contacts -- with repeat visits to undecided and first-time voters -- while being careful not to turn people off by being overly persistent. Though it relies on homegrown backers, it must still incorporate thousands of out-of-state volunteers. And above all, its foot soldiers must make the case for a candidate who remains an unknown to many would-be supporters.

Jane Goodman, a city council member in South Euclid, Ohio, who is leading the Obama effort in her ward, said she has never seen such a grass-roots push in her Cleveland suburb of Jewish voters, Russian immigrants and African Americans. But she has also never seen such a need for it.

"We haven't had much Democratic outreach here before because it was assumed the Democrats are going to win," she said. "This year, we can't make that assumption."

For all the talk of the Obama campaign's use of the Internet and other technology, the success of its organization over the final weeks will depend in large part on individual efforts on the ground. Unlike past campaigns, those have been structured around "neighborhood team leaders." The leaders control eight to 12 precincts around their own neighborhoods, buttressed by four "coordinators" who help oversee team members, usually numbering in the dozens.

The neighborhood leaders typically have been coaxed into action by paid field organizers, attended at least one training session, and spent the past few months registering voters and recruiting volunteers for this month's turnout push. All know exactly how many votes their territory must produce.

It is a big responsibility to place on volunteers who, in many cases, have not worked on other campaigns. But it is a model that was built through trial and error in the primaries and suits the unique challenges that face the Obama campaign, said Steve Rosenthal, former political director for the AFL-CIO.




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In the first presidential campaign involving an African American nominee of a major party, both candidates have agreed on this much: They would rather not dwell on the subject of race.

But their allies have other ideas.

Yesterday, civil rights leader John Lewis, a Democratic congressman from Georgia, became the latest advocate to excite the racial debate, condemning Sen. John McCain for "sowing the seeds of hatred and division" and accusing the Republican nominee of potentially inciting violence.

In a provocative twist, Lewis drew a rhetorical line connecting McCain to the segregationist Alabama governor George Wallace, and through Wallace to the 1963 church bombing in Birmingham that killed four girls. McCain voiced outrage at the comments, which also drew a mild rebuke from an aide to Sen. Barack Obama.

McCain has treated the subject of race gingerly, moving quickly to reject loaded remarks by some supporters while at other times accusing the Obama campaign of "playing the race card" and claiming racism to avoid legitimate criticism.

Obama, meanwhile, has made a studied effort to avoid bringing race to the forefront throughout the general election. After giving one major address on race during the primaries, he raised the subject only obliquely over the summer, saying he expected his rivals to note that he "doesn't look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills."

He has mostly avoided the topic since, handing off to a network of friends, including Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, the task of talking directly to their constituencies about electing a black president.

Yet allies of the campaigns and activists on both sides have increasingly strayed outside the unofficial boundaries. At two McCain rallies last week, individuals introducing the candidate referred to the Democratic nominee as "Barack Hussein Obama," emphasizing his middle name. Former Oklahoma governor Frank Keating called him a "man of the street."

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, said Obama was "palling around with terrorists," a reference to his association with the 1960s radical William Ayers, and a turn of phrase that critics said was racially loaded.

On the other side of the aisle, in September, two Democratic state legislators in Ohio caused an uproar when they accused independents who support McCain of doing so because they are racist.

Each instance has provoked rounds of finger-pointing and apology, but often without the involvement of either candidate.

Lewis yesterday used a racial frame to leverage one of the harshest cases against McCain this year. "As one who was a victim of violence and hate during the height of the Civil Rights Movement, I am deeply disturbed by the negative tone of the McCain-Palin campaign. What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history," Lewis, 68, wrote in a statement.

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Virginia hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 44 years, but economic concerns and changing demographics are giving Sen. Barack Obama a chance to steal the once reliably red state from Republicans.

Sen. Barack Obama waves as rain falls on a rally in Fredericksburg, Virginia, in late September.

Sen. Barack Obama waves as rain falls on a rally in Fredericksburg, Virginia, in late September.

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Polls earlier this year showed Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, leading Obama, his Democratic rival, in Virginia by a healthy margin.

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll taken May 12-18 had McCain leading 47 percent to 39 percent.

But as the financial crisis has shaken voters' confidence in the economy, Obama has begun to open a lead in the state, as he has done in other battleground states.

The latest CNN poll of polls has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 45 percent. A CNN/TIME/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted September 28-30 shows Obama with an even bigger lead over McCain, 53 percent to 44 percent. The CNN poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Polls show that voters have more confidence in Obama to handle the economic crisis than they do in McCain, and are more likely to blame Republicans for the recent turmoil than Democrats.

Beside an advantage on the economy, Obama is also benefiting from a demographic shift that has reshaped Virginia politics.

For the last 10 presidential elections, Republicans have been able to bank on Virginia delivering its 13 electoral votes to the GOP. President Bush won Virginia by 8 percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, and President Bill Clinton was never able to capture the state when he ran in 1992 and 1996.

But the explosive growth of Northern Virginia in the last decade has changed the state's electorate. Drawn by government jobs in nearby Washington and high-tech jobs in the Dulles corridor, the growing population in Northern Virginia is more liberal than the mostly rural southern portion of the state, which has remained reliably Republican.

In 2000, Bush carried Northern Virginia 49 percent to 47 percent, but in 2004, Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, carried the area 51 percent to 48 percent.

Virginia "is not as red as people think," said Doc Thompson, a conservative talk show host for WRVA radio. "A third of the population in Northern Virginia is pretty liberal. A lot of people are buying into [Obama's] notion of change."

Virginia Democrats have been able to exploit the changes in the electorate into statewide electoral success after years in which the Republicans had a virtual lock on the state.

In fact, Virginia Republicans have not won a statewide race since Mark Warner, a former mobile phone company executive, captured the governorship for the Democrats in 2001 by emphasizing economic growth.

Democrat Tim Kaine, who was Warner's lieutenant governor, succeeded Warner in 2005. And in what may have been the most surprising result of the 2006 election cycle, Democrat Jim Webb defeated the incumbent Republican George Allen in the race for one of Virginia's seats in the U.S. Senate.

The trend favoring the Democrats is expected to continue this year, which is expected to help drive Virginia Democrats to the polls.

The extremely popular Warner is almost certain to win this year's race against another former governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, to replace Virginia's long-standing Republican senator, John Warner, who is retiring. (The two Warners are not related, and John Warner was unopposed in 2002.)

A Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted in late September found Warner leading Gilmore by 30 points, and Warner's victory would give Democrats control of both of Virginia's seats in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1970.

While conservatives may be demoralized by Gilmore's poor showing, McCain may also face eroding support from Virginia conservatives for his recent proposals for the government to become heavily involved in the U.S. economy, said Thompson, the radio talk show host.

During Tuesday night's presidential debate, McCain suggested that the government directly buy up to $300 billion in home mortgages to help homeowners facing foreclosure.

Thompson said that proposal, along with his support for a $700 billion bailout package to help Wall Street firms that McCain voted for last week, are two signs that McCain is breaking from the free-market principles that Virginia conservatives support and not stopping "the march toward socialism" that has begun since the economic crisis started.

"They missed a real opportunity, certainly, in Virginia with my listeners who say they want someone who is fiscally conservative," said Thompson, who added that he's considering voting for a third-party candidate. "They could have come out and said, 'no more spending.' "

 


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Debate highlights stark differences

updated 20 minutes ago

Debate highlights stark differences

Squaring off in the second of three debates, Barack Obama and John McCain drew sharp differences over the origin of domestic and international problems -- and how to tackle them. Obama tied McCain to President Bush on Iraq and economic deregulation, while McCain painted Obama as overly reliant on government and himself as a "steady hand at the tiller." developing story


(CNN) -- Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama went head-to-head on the economy, domestic policy and foreign affairs as they faced off in their second presidential debate.

Sen. Barack Obama challenged Sen. John McCain's views on Iraq.

Sen. Barack Obama challenged Sen. John McCain's views on Iraq.

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The debate was set up like a town hall meeting, and the audience was made up of undecided voters.

The candidates spoke directly to each other at times, but at other times they spoke as if their opponent were not in the room.

The debate over foreign policy boiled down to who has the better judgment.

McCain said he knows how to handle foreign affairs and questioned Obama's ability to do so.

"My judgment is something that I think I have a record to stand on," McCain said.

McCain said the "challenge" facing a president considering using military force "is to know when to go in and when not."

Obama questioned McCain's judgment in
supporting the invasion of Iraq.

"When Sen. McCain was cheerleading the president to go into Iraq, he suggested it was going to be quick and easy -- we would be greeted as liberators. That was the wrong judgment," he said.

Obama vowed to get Osama bin Laden and defeat al Qaeda.

"We will kill bin Laden, we will crush al Qaeda," he said.

McCain responded in equally strong terms: "I'll get him. I know how to get him. But I am not going to telegraph my punches as Sen. Obama did."

McCain and Obama seemed to agree that there were situations when the United States should be willing to use force to stop a humanitarian crisis, even when America was not directly threatened.

Earlier, Obama said the country has a "moral commitment as well as an economic imperative" to address the health care problem.

The Illinois senator said health care is a "crushing burden" for small businesses and is "breaking family budgets."

Obama and McCain both proposed computerizing medical records to reduce costs and limit errors.

McCain argued that Obama's plan included fines for small businesses that did not insure their employees, while his was based on "choice" rather than "mandates."

Obama said health care was a "right," while McCain said it was a "responsibility."

Obama's health care plan includes the creation of a national health insurance program for individuals who do not have employer-provided health care and who do not qualify for other existing federal programs. His plan does not mandate individual coverage for all Americans, but requires coverage for all children.

McCain opposes federally mandated universal coverage. He believes competition will improve the quality of health insurance.

McCain says he would reform the tax code to offer choices beyond employee-based health insurance coverage. Under the plan, all taxpayers would receive a direct refundable tax credit of $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families

During the first half of the debate, the candidates focused on their plans to fix the economy.

McCain said the system in Washington "cries out for bipartisanship" and pushed his record as a reformer.

He and Obama were asked how voters could trust either one of them to fix the economy when both parties contributed to the financial crisis. Video Watch the candidates explain why they can be trusted »

Obama said "while it is true that nobody is completely innocent here, we have had over the last eight years the biggest increases in deficit spending and national debt in our history."

Obama said the country is in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression as he began his second presidential debate with Sen. John McCain.

He blamed President Bush and McCain for the crisis, saying they had worked to "strip away regulation."

McCain proposed having the government buy up and renegotiate bad home loans to stabilize the property market. Video Watch McCain talk about his plan for the economy »

He admitted the plan would be expensive but said it was necessary.

McCain also hammered away at his rival's tax policies, saying that "nailing down Sen. Obama's various tax proposals is like nailing Jello to the wall." Video Watch McCain slam Obama's tax plan »

"I am not in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy. I am in favor of leaving the tax rates alone," McCain said.

McCain charged that "Obama's secret that you don't know" is that he would increase taxes on small business revenue, which he said would lead to job cuts.

Obama shot back, saying "the Straight Talk Express lost a wheel on that one." Video Watch Obama talk about his plan for the middle class »

"Let's be clear about my tax plan and Sen. McCain's," he said. "I want to provide a tax cut for 95 percent of Americans."

In response to a question from moderator Tom Brokaw, McCain floated the names of billionaire investor Warren Buffett -- an Obama supporter -- and Meg Whitman, the former eBay executive who is one of his economic advisers.

Obama agreed that "Warren would be a pretty good choice," but declined to go into specifics about who he would nominate.

The debate was set up like a town hall, and the candidates are fielding questions from audience members, the moderator and Internet participants.

The two faced off at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.

The debate follows several days of intense sparring from both nominees' camps.

Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists who would target their own country," and Obama's campaign released an ad quoting editorials that called McCain "erratic" and "out of touch."

On Monday, the Obama campaign released an online documentary criticizing McCain over his involvement in the Keating Five scandal of the 1980s. Fact check: Did McCain intervene on behalf of Charles Keating?

Obama's campaign said Tuesday's town hall setting would benefit McCain.

Going into debates, campaigns generally try to build up expectations for their opponent while lowering the bar for their candidate.

"When it comes to sheer format, we enter today's debate the decided underdog," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton in a memo sent to reporters.

"John McCain does extremely well in town hall settings. It's been his favorite format throughout his career and we think that he will of course do very well."

Palin agreed that the format should play in McCain's favor, telling reporters on her campaign plane that she thinks "he'll be feeling very much at home."

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The Alaska governor was watching the debate from a restaurant in Greenville, North Carolina.

Sen. Joe Biden, Obama's running mate, was watching the debate with his family at his home in Delaware.


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(CNN) -- With just four weeks left until Election Day, Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are preparing to face off in Tuesday night's high-stakes presidential debate.

Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama will meet again Tuesday in Nashville, Tennessee.

Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama will meet again Tuesday in Nashville, Tennessee.

The debate comes amid stepped-up attacks from both sides.

Gov. Sarah Palin accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists who would target their own country," and Obama's campaign released an ad quoting editorials that called McCain "erratic" and "out of touch."

On Monday, the Obama campaign released an online documentary that criticizes McCain over his involvement in the "Keating Five" scandal of the 1980s. Fact check: Did McCain intervene on behalf of Charles Keating?

The back-and-forth this weekend could set the stage for a more heated event than the first presidential debate -- one that had few sharp exchanges as both candidates largely stuck to their talking points.

At a campaign event in Denver, Colorado, last week, a voter asked McCain when he was going to "let the gloves come off and go after" Obama.

McCain's response: "How about Tuesday night?"

According to CNN's latest poll of polls, Obama leads McCain by six percentage points, 49-43.

The poll of polls consists of three national surveys: Marist (September 28-30), Gallup (October 2-4), and Diageo/Hotline (October 2-4). It does not have a sampling error.

As the economic crisis unfolded over the past month, Obama has reclaimed and solidified his lead.

The first presidential debate was supposed to be about foreign policy, but much of it focused on the economy.

That debate, which took place on September 26, came as talks over the government's bailout proposal imploded.

It wasn't clear if the first debate would even take place because McCain suspended his campaign, he said, to focus on the financial crisis. By the morning of the debate, he said he thought Congress had made enough progress on the bailout proposal for him to go ahead with the debate. Democrats blasted his move as a political stunt.

A national poll of people who watched the first presidential debate suggested that Obama came out on top, but there was overwhelming agreement that both Obama and McCain would be able to handle the job of president if elected.

Tuesday's debate is the second in the series of three presidential debates, but the format is much different than the other two events. Video Watch more on the upcoming debate »

The second debate, taking place in Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, will be set up like a town hall meeting.

The first and third debates are divided into approximately eight 10-minute segments. The moderator introduces each segment with an issue and gives each candidate two minutes to respond. Then there is a five-minute discussion period, when direct exchanges between the candidates occur.

The candidates on Tuesday will not only take questions from moderator Tom Brokaw of NBC News, but they'll also answer questions from people in the audience and from Internet participants.

The audience will be made up of uncommitted voters.

"These debates, town hall debates, are often very telling, they often provide the most dramatic moments in a campaign," said Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst.

"If either of the candidates tries to go negative when you're with an audience of ordinary voters, they don't like it. We've heard them sometimes get very upset when the candidates start attacking each other, so that's going to be hard to do in a town hall format," he said.

At the beginning of the campaign season, McCain invited Obama to participate in joint town hall meetings, but the campaigns never reached agreement on details of the proposed meetings.



McCain spent time at his ranch near Sedona, Arizona, this weekend to prepare for Tuesday's debate. Obama spent time preparing with his staff at a resort in Asheville, North Carolina, on Sunday, taking a break for an afternoon rally.

He will spend most of Monday in preparation as well.



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NASHVILLE, Tennessee (CNN) -- A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by 8 points, according to CNN's latest poll.

Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by 8 points, according to CNN's latest poll.

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The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public's perception of McCain's running mate could be contributing to Obama's gains.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.

That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September. Watch why the economy is hurting McCain Video

Monday evening's CNN national Poll of Polls -- incorporating our new CNN survey, as well as new tracking numbers from Gallup and Hotline taken October 3-5 -- shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points -- at 49 to 43 percent.

President Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey. See the latest polling

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1974, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican presidential nominee would have the same policies as the current Republican president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush, up from 50 percent a month ago.

The financial crisis also appears to be contributing to Obama's increased lead in the poll. Sixty-eight percent are confident in the Democratic presidential nominee's ability to handle the financial crisis, 18 points ahead of McCain, and 42 points ahead of Bush.

More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.

Another hurdle for the Arizona senator is expectations. Six in 10 questioned in the poll predict that Obama will win the November election.

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, just after President Bush signed the $700 billion federal bailout into law. By a 53 percent to 46 percent margin, Americans oppose the bill.

"One in five might have supported a different bill, but one in three believe that the government should have stayed out of the crisis completely and let the markets attempt to recover on their own.

"A majority think that the bailout package will not prevent the economy from going into a deep and prolonged recession -- but they turn thumbs-down to another bailout package if this one does not work. Only one in five would support more assistance beyond Friday's $700 billion package," Holland said.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone on October 3-5. The survey questioned 1,006 people. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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