'report'에 해당되는 글 11건

  1. 2009.04.21 Earnings Preview: EBay to report 1Q results by CEOinIRVINE
  2. 2009.01.08 Report Places 2009 Budget Deficit at $1.2 Trillion by CEOinIRVINE
  3. 2009.01.08 ADP Report Reflects Dark December by CEOinIRVINE
  4. 2008.12.19 Markets Teeter-Totter At Midday by CEOinIRVINE
  5. 2008.12.12 Bipartisan Report: Rumsfeld Responsible for Detainee Abuse by CEOinIRVINE
  6. 2008.12.07 What's Your Economic Outlook? by CEOinIRVINE
  7. 2008.12.06 Stocks tumble after dismal jobs report by CEOinIRVINE
  8. 2008.12.06 U.S. Layoffs Surge in November by CEOinIRVINE
  9. 2008.11.27 4 new reports reveal battered economy by CEOinIRVINE
  10. 2008.11.23 Borders shares fall with 3Q report on horizon by CEOinIRVINE

Online marketplace operator eBay Inc. reports its first-quarter results Wednesday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst commentary related to the period.

OVERVIEW: During its first quarter, San Jose, Calif.-based eBay continued to weather the global economic downturn and acknowledged that its marketplace business - which it has been struggling to improve - has a way to go. The company also talked up its online payments business, PayPal, and predicted that business will double in size by 2011.

Speaking during a day of analyst briefings in March, Chief Executive John Donahoe and other executives laid out changes to eBay's marketplace business, including focusing more on the market for offseason or liquidation-ready items, refining onsite search capabilities and working even more on cultivating buyers' trust.

EBay also said it expects PayPal, which is its second-largest business, to process between $100 billion and $120 billion in annual payments by 2011. In 2008, the service, which has 70 million active user accounts, processed $60 billion in transactions.

BY THE NUMBERS: In January, eBay forecast first-quarter earnings of 21 cents to 23 cents per share - or 32 cents to 34 cents per share when excluding items. The company also predicted $1.80 billion to $2.05 billion in revenue.

At the time, this was well below what analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were anticipating. Now, however, they expect eBay to report first-quarter adjusted earnings of 33 cents per share on $1.94 billion in revenue.

ANALYST TAKE: In a note to clients, Jefferies & Co. analyst Youssef Squali predicted the company's results will meet "muted expectations" and that management will maintain a cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to weakened consumer demand and eBay's ongoing work to improve its marketplace.

Squali rates eBay shares "Buy" with a $20 price target.

WHAT'S AHEAD: EBay is increasingly trying to focus on its marketplace and payment businesses and shed parts of the business that don't really fit in. This month, the company agreed to pay up to $1.2 billion to buy all outstanding common shares and American Depositary Shares of South Korea's biggest online marketplace, Gmarket.

Just two days earlier, eBay had said it plans to separate Internet communications service Skype from the rest of the company through an initial public offering in 2010. EBay bought Skype for $2.6 billion in 2005, but later wrote down much of its value - essentially an acknowledgment that the company had hugely overvalued it.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares declined 10 percent during the quarter to close at $12.56 on March 31. The stock has since rebounded and traded at $13.94 in afternoon trading Monday, down 45 cents.

Copyright 2009 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

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Members of the House of Representatives of the 111th Congress, accompanied by family members and guests, are sworn in in the House Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
Members of the House of Representatives of the 111th Congress, accompanied by family members and guests, are sworn in in the House Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) (Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP)

Slowing tax revenues and a historic bailout of the U.S. financial system will drive the annual budget deficit to nearly $1.2 trillion this year, even without the massive economic stimulus package now under review by Congress, the Congressional Budget Office reported this morning.

The CBO also projected that the deficit would hit $703 billion in the fiscal year that starts in October.

In a news conference in Washington, President-elect Barack Obama warned that "the deficit we are inheriting" this year is bound to grow beyond $1.2 trillion.

"We know that our recovery and reinvestment plan will necessarily add more," he said. "My own economic and budget team projects that unless we take decisive action, even after our economy pulls out of its slide, trillion-dollar deficits will be a reality for years to come."

Obama said his team is still consulting with members of Congress about the size of the stimulus package.

"We expect that it will be on the high end of our estimates, but will not be as high as some economists have recommended, because of the constraints and concerns we have about the existing deficit," he said. Obama's advisers have put the package in the range of $675 billion to $775 billion, but some economists have said it should be between $800 billion and $1.3 trillion.

Democratic leaders in Congress described today's deficit announcement as stunning and warned of exploding debt in the future. But they said Congress must nevertheless pass a stimulus package quickly.

The CBO budget outlook provides the first official estimate of how rampant federal spending aimed at stabilizing markets and reviving the economy have affected the government's finances. The picture is grim: the numbers for both this year and fiscal 2010 represent deficits far larger than anything ever recorded in dollar terms. This year's figure represents 8.3 percent of the nation's gross domestic product -- the largest percentage of the nation's economic activity since the end of World War II in 1945.

However, the new deficit figures substantially understate the expected size of the budget gap. If Congress approves Obama's request for nearly $800 billion in spending and tax cuts to pull the nation out of recession, this year's deficit could easily soar to $1.6 trillion or more.

The deficit projections include a 6.6 percent drop in tax collections this year, down $166 billion from 2008. They also include $180 billion in costs for the Troubled Assets Relief Program, last year's effort to shore up the U.S. financial sector, as well as $240 billion to incorporate the federal bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the U.S. budget.

The projected deficit for 2010, meanwhile, excludes not only stimulus costs, but also spending for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a variety of expensive tax cuts that are extended annually, including relief for millions of families from the alternative minimum tax. It also excludes any new spending on Obama initiatives, such as health care reform.

Obama faces the twin challenges of managing the deficit, the annual gap between tax revenues and spending, and the swelling national debt, the amount of money that the government has borrowed to finance years of deficits. His task is made all the more difficult because new spending is widely viewed as the best way to pull the nation out of the recession. While Obama has declined to say how he intends to deal with such challenges, an economic adviser said yesterday that the president-elect plans to unveil "major initiatives" designed to eventually bring the deficit under control as part of his first budget proposal, which he will submit to Congress next month.



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The payroll processor reported 693,000 jobs lost in the U.S. private sector during the month, 223,000 more than forecast.

Stock futures slid after December’s worse than expected ADP jobs report had investors worrying that Friday’s U.S. official employment snapshot will be equally dreadful.

The U.S. economy shed a much higher than expected 693,000 nonfarm jobs in December, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. Economists had forecast a loss of 470,000. This report serves as an important prelude to the Labor Department’s monthly jobless report, though the two are not always aligned.

The weak economic data boosted demand for safe-haven government-issued securities, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 2.48%, from 2.51% late Thursday, while the shorter two-year note's yield increased to 0.82%, from 0.80%, suggesting that investors are looking for longer-term shelter from the macroeconomic storm.

Small and medium-sized firms posted the lion’s share of jobs losses, reportedly laying off 280,000 and 321,000 employees, respectively, during the period. ADP said this indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.

News of continued weakness in the U.S. labor market comes amid other economic headwinds including falling home prices, curbed consumer spending, rising foreclosures and major declines in assets on Wall Street's balance sheets and Main Street's 401(k)s.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes released Tuesday indicated that the central bank's outlook was gloomy when it made an unprecedented move in cutting its benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 0.0% to 0.25% on December 16. However, most members of the policy-setting committee expect economic conditions slowly to improve beginning in the second half of 2009, even as GDP remains negative through the year and unemployment significantly increases into 2010. (See "Fed Negative On 2009; Street Resilient.")

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index was something of a bright spot Tuesday, showing that contraction in the services sector slowed in December, but the National Association of Retailers said pending home sales fell again in November, and the Commerce Department recorded a 4.6% drop in factory orders in November, the fourth straight monthly decline. (See "Investors Look For Dawn In Dark U.S. Economy.")

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Wall Street struggled to find direction Thursday morning as mixed reports from the economy and the corporate sector had the market wobbling.

With the holiday week fast-approaching, volumes were light and investors appeared to shy away from aggressive moves in the equity markets, but there was plenty of action in commodities, currencies and government debt.

The Labor Department kicked off the day, reporting that initial jobless claims inched down to 554,000 last week, from 575,000 the week before. Meanwhile, continuing claims edged back below 4.4 million. The decline was positive news, but the hits keep coming; health insurance outfit Aetna (nyse: AET - news - people ) said it will cut its workforce by 1,000 jobs. (See "December 2008 Layoffs.")

A closely-watched reading on manufacturing activity was not as bad as feared; the Philadelphia Fed index came in at negative 32.9 for December. The figure indicates regional activity in the sector slowed less than expected, following a negative 39.3 reading in November.

Major indexes were little changed by midday, as the Dow was down 10 points, or 0.1%, to 8,814; the S&P 500 was up 2 points, or 0.3%, to 907; and the Nasdaq gained 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,582. There was more action in other markets during the seesaw session though.

Traders scoffed at Wednesday's production cut of 2.2 million barrels of oil a day by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, sending crude down $1.98, to $38.08 a barrel. United States Oil Fund (nyse: USO - news - people ), an exchange-traded vehicle that seeks to mirror the movement of crude and other products, lost $1.64, or 4.7%, to $33.17. (See "Russia Dashes OPEC's Hopes.")

Treasury yields and the dollar continued to soften, after the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark fed funds rate effectively to zero on Tuesday. The 10-year note's yield was down to 2.10%, from 2.20% Wednesday. The iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund (nyse: TLH - news - people ), which tracks longer maturities, was up $1.92, or 1.6%, to $123.80. The euro sustained recent strength early, trading over $1.44 Thursday morning, but shed its gain and fell back to $1.429 by midday. (See "Helicopter Ben Goes ZIRP!")

Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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A bipartisan Senate report released today says that former Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other top Bush administration officials are directly responsible for abuses of detainees at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and charges that decisions by those officials led to serious offenses against prisoners in Iraq and elsewhere.

The Senate Armed Services Committee report accuses Rumsfeld and his deputies of being the principal architects of the plan to use harsh interrogation techniques on captured fighters and terrorism suspects, rejecting the Bush administration's contention that the policies originated lower down the command chain.

"The abuse of detainees in U.S. custody cannot simply be attributed to the actions of 'a few bad apples' acting on their own," the panel concludes. "The fact is that senior officials in the United States government solicited information on how to use aggressive techniques, redefined the law to create the appearance of their legality, and authorized their use against detainees."

The report, released by  Sens. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and  John McCain (R-Ariz.) and based on a nearly two-year investigation, said that both the policies and resulting controversies tarnished the reputation of the United States and undermined national security. "Those efforts damaged our ability to collect accurate intelligence that could save lives, strengthened the hand of our enemies, and compromised our moral authority," it said.

The panel's investigation focused on the Defense Department's use of controversial interrogation practices, including forced nudity, painful stress positions, sleep deprivation, extreme temperatures and use of dogs. The practices, some of which had already been adopted by the CIA at its secret prisons, were adapted for interrogations at Guantanamo Bay and later migrated to U.S. detention camps in Afghanistan and Iraq, including the infamous Abu Ghraib prison.

"The Committee's report details the inexcusable link between abusive interrogation techniques used by our enemies who ignored the Geneva Conventions and interrogation policy for detainees in U.S. custody," McCain, himself a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, said in a statement. "These policies are wrong and must never be repeated."

White House officials have maintained the measures were approved in response to demands from field officers who complained that traditional interrogation methods weren't working on some of the more hardened captives. But Senate investigators, relying on documents and hours of hearing testimony, arrived at a different conclusion.

The true genesis of the decision to use coercive techniques, the report said, was a memo signed by President Bush on Feb. 7, 2002, declaring that the Geneva Convention's standards for humane treatment did not apply to captured al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters. As early as that spring, the panel said, top administration officials, including National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, participated in meetings in which the use of coercive measures was discussed. The panel drew on a written statement by Rice, released earlier this year, to support that conclusion.

In July 2002, Rumseld's senior staff began compiling information about techniques used in military survival schools to simulate conditions that U.S. airmen might face if captured by an enemy that did not follow the Geneva conditions. Those techniques -- borrowed from a training program known as Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape, or SERE -- included waterboarding, or simulated drowning, and were loosely based on methods adopted by Chinese communists to coerce propaganda confessions from captured U.S. soldiers during the Korean war.

The SERE program became the template for interrogation methods that were ultimately approved by Rumsfeld himself, the report says. In the field, U.S. military interrogators used the techniques with little oversight and frequently abusive results, the panel found.

"It is particularly troubling that senior officials approved the use of interrogation techniques that were originally designed to simulate abusive tactics used by our enemies against our own soldiersand that were modeled, in part, on tactics used by the Communist Chinese to elicit false confessions from U.S. military personnel," the report said.

Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement that "SERE training techniques were designed to give our troops a taste of what they might be subjected to if captured by a ruthless, lawless enemy so that they would be better prepared to resist. The techniques were never intended to be used against detainees in U.S. custody."

Defenders of the techniques have argued that such measures were justified because of al-Qaeda's demonstrated disregard for human life. But the panel members cited the views of Gen. David H. Petraeus, now the head of U.S. Central Command, who in a May, 2007 letter to his troops said humane treatment of prisoners allows Americans to occupy the moral high ground.

"Our values and the laws governing warfare teach us to respect human dignity, maintain our integrity, and do what is right," wrote Petraeus, who at the time was the top U.S. commander in Iraq. "Adherence to our values distinguishes us from our enemy."




Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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You know the economic outlook for much of the country is rough, with unemployment rising, home prices falling, credit short and manufacturing, retail and services all in decline. Bad news indeed. But--surprise--there are bright spots across the country.

According to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on regional economies, released Wednesday, areas around Boston, St. Louis, Chicago and San Francisco have seen increased demand in aerospace manufacturing. St. Louis, Dallas and San Francisco saw gains in food processing. Most of the Midwest has seen agriculture hold up well, and in Nebraska and Kansas, farmland prices continue to rise.

The Great Plains and East Coast (particularly around the mid-Atlantic) have seen relatively stronger demand for lower- and middle-priced "starter homes." The troubles of New York banks have actually led to increased volumes for banks in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as people turn from the national chains to regional firms.

Eight times a year, the Fed collects surveys from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, representing every region of the country. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its first look at unemployment in the country's metro areas for the month of October. Together, these two reports were the first deep look into how parts of the country are doing in the wake of this summer's banking implosion.

Though the regions are named after the city in which the Federal Reserve bank is located, they represent broader regions. Because the system was established nearly a century ago, the regions are not equally sized. The Boston Fed's domain is only the Northeast, whereas the San Francisco Federal Reserve covers the entire West Coast. But activity reported by the Fed's different districts represents the activity of entire regions, not just the central cities. (See a map of the Federal Reserve districts.)

The mood of the Fed's report is, on the whole, grim. In the dry parlance of the Fed report, New York's economy "deteriorated substantially"--worse than San Francisco's "weakened decidedly." Both regions would have been happy with the Fed's appraisal of Philadelphia's economy which "remained generally weak" or Boston's, which merely "slowed further."


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News of a rapidly weakening job sent stocks falling Friday as investors feared that the recession will be deeper and more prolonged than many have expected. The major indexes were all down more than 1 percent and the Dow Jones industrials fell 180 points.

The Labor Department's report that employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November came in much higher than the 320,000 that economists forecast. The job losses were severe enough to add to expectations that Washington will have to take even bigger steps to boost the economy.

Although stocks fell after the report, analysts said Friday's retreat likely would have been steeper if the market hadn't tumbled in the final hour of trading Thursday in anticipation of a weak reading.

"What we're seeing here is the market telling you that a downward drop in employment was somewhat expected," said Craig Peckham, equity trading strategist at Jefferies & Co.

"In a kind of paradoxical sense, the really ugly employment numbers probably helped the case for more help from Washington, whether it's through the broader stimulus plan or more targeted industry measures."

Job losses were widespread, hitting manufacturing, construction, retail, financial and other sectors. It was the biggest monthly loss of jobs since 1974.

While the rise in the unemployment rate wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent forecast, investors clearly believe the employment outlook remains bleak - especially as the layoffs keep coming. On Thursday, bellwether companies like AT&T Inc. and DuPont Co. announced they were cutting thousands of jobs.

The fear on Wall Street is that a rising unemployment rate will, among other things, lead to a more severe pullback in consumer spending, which is a crucial component to helping the economy rebound. Weak retail sales reports for the month of November released Thursday added to these concerns.

"The news is consistently dreadful and is likely to remain so for some time as layoffs continue and economic reports come in," said Gary Townsend, president and chief executive of private investment group Hill-Townsend Capital Inc.

In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 180.40, or 2.15 percent, to 8,195.84 after falling 216 points Thursday.

Broader stock indicators also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 17.93, or 2.12 percent, to 827.29, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 24.08, or 1.67 percent, to 1,421.48.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 8.42, or 1.92 percent, to 431.11.

Five stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where trading volume came to a moderate 302.2 million shares.

Bond prices showed modest movements Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, inched up to 2.57 percent from 2.56 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.02 percent from below 0.01 percent late Thursday, but still indicated extreme fear among investors.

The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude fell $1.71 to $41.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Concerns about the economy and weakening energy demand have kept oil prices down near four-year lows. The price of oil has fallen a staggering 70 percent since peaking at $147.27 in July.

Independent investment strategist Edward Yardeni said Friday's employment snapshot confirms the nation is mired in a difficult recession but that the extent of the weakness likely will galvanize government officials.

"The number was a shocker to such an extent that it's clearly going to require an enormous stimulus response from Washington," he said. "Cleary the Fed and the Treasury are going to move even faster."

The Federal Reserve and the Treasury have been taking unprecedented steps to revive the economy since the mid-September bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Other programs have sprung from the government's $700 billion bailout of the banking sector. The Treasury said Thursday it is considering a plan to encourage banks to make mortgage loans at low rates. That could help patch up the troubled housing market, which many analysts say is crucial to any economic recovery.

Wall Street has reacted with both optimism and indifference in recent months as policymakers have tried to revive troubled credit markets and stabilize wobbly banks. Some analysts have been hopeful that relative quiet in the markets for more than a week portends a return of some stability because of the government's efforts, while others warn that the volatility in the market will continue.

"The markets are, in my view, acting not stable at all but with excessive volatility and unpredictability," Townsend said. "It's a very difficult market to invest into and a very difficult market to trade."

Part of investors' uncertainty centers on the automakers. Investors are observing a second day of congressional hearings with the heads of Detroit's top three automakers, who are appearing on Capitol Hill in an effort to save their troubled industry.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC are collectively seeking $34 billion in emergency funding. While the market largely expects the companies will win some sort of government aid, support for the troubled carmakers isn't assured. Friday's jobs report likely put added pressure on lawmakers to offer a lifeline that would let the companies avoid bankruptcy.

GM fell 5 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $4.06, while Ford rose 9 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $2.75. Chrysler isn't publicly traded.

Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch & Co. shareholders approved the investment bank's sale to Bank of America Corp. early Friday, in a move that will create the nation's largest financial services firm.

Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill for $50 billion after the collapse of rival investment firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September raised doubts about the viability of independent investment banks in general. The value of the all-stock deal has since fallen to about $20 billion, based on Bank of America's Thursday closing price of $14.34.

Bank of America shareholders were set to vote on the acquisition at 11 a.m. EST. The deal is expected to close during the first quarter.

Optimism that buoyed some overseas markets following massive interest rate cuts across Europe Thursday deflated following the report on U.S. jobs. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.26 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 4.71 percent, and France's CAC-40 declined 5.72 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average slipped 0.08 percent on the day.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

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Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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Government reported a much higher than expected 533,000 jobs evaporated, and the jobless rate reached 6.7%, from 6.5% in October.

In a worrisome sign of further weakening in the U.S. labor market, November saw the highest number of layoffs in the private sector in more than 32 years.

The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in November, with 533,000 jobs lost. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, from an unrevised October figure of 6.5%. The prior October nonfarms payroll figure was revised to reflect a larger slide of 320,000, from the initially reported 240,000. Economists had been forecasting a substantially milder payrolls reduction of 350,000 jobs in November but a slightly higher 6.8% rate of joblessness. Employment declined in nearly all major industries, although health care continued to add jobs.

Equities recovered a bit at the markets' open, after plunging in response to the news during premarket trading. The Dow lost 0.7%, or 60 points, to 8,315; the S&P 500 fell 1.0%, or 9.2 points, to 836; and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.8%, or 13 points, to 1,432 during early trading. Bonds rallied, as investors fled to safe haven government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose to 2.61%, from 2.55% late Thursday. The return on the two-year note also increased, to 0.83, from 0.82.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, as recently announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (see “Congratulations, It's A Recession”), the number of unemployed persons increased by 2.7 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 1.7 percentage points with two-thirds of these losses sustained in the last 3 months.

Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, saw November's job losses as a sign that the economy is worsening at a faster than expected rate. "The labor market is in great trouble. Batten down the hatches because the ship is filling with water quick," he said. "The breadth of the job losses across industries is evidence that businesses all through the economy are reacting at the same time. We're seeing outsize job losses and will see more in the coming months because every business knows what's going on, and they're adjusting very rapidly."

The "outsize losses" are "the cost of technology," Naroff remarked, as instant access to information allows businesses of all sizes to react on a hair trigger to live economic data. However, he believes there is an upside: "The period of job losses may actually be shorter than in previous cycles as a result of the compression of the adjustment process where we all reacting at the same time."

The government also reported that wages rose 7 cents per hour, or 0.4%, in November. As unemployment continues to mount, it is likely that pay increases will be tempered in the months ahead.

The ADP Employer Services had a more coservative estimate of losses to the American job market Wednesday, when it reported that 250,000 jobs had disappeared during the month of November. (See “ADP Points Way Down On Payrolls Figures.") The Fed's Beige Book, which was released Wednesday, also reflected slumping economic activity. (See "Beige Book Bleak.")

Monday's official confirmation that the American economy has been contracting was not a huge surprise, considering the copious signs indicating a slowdown that had preceded it. Payroll employment has declined every month in 2008. Housing prices will have plunged an estimated 10.0% nationally this year, with more declines expected in 2009. U.S. gross domestic product first declined in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The confluence of worrying indicators has pushed consumer confidence to the steepest decline on record in October. This widespread pessimism has put the brakes on spending for everything from automobiles to holiday gifts, hurting businesses further. The competition for scarce dollars has lead to price cutting that some warn could point to a vicious deflationary cycle like that of the Great Depression, should a widespread drop in prices occur.




Posted by CEOinIRVINE
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The government released a quartet of reports Wednesday that paint a bleak picture of the nation's economy: Jobless claims remain at recessionary levels, Americans cut back on their spending by the largest amount since the 2001 terrorist attacks, orders to U.S. factories plummeted and homes sales fell to the lowest level in nearly 18 years.

The Labor Department reported that initial requests for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 529,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 543,000. But claims remain at recessionary levels. The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, rose to 518,000, its highest level since January 1983, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession.

One minor bright spot showed the number of people continuing to claim unemployment insurance dropped unexpectedly to 3.96 million, from the previous week's 4.02 million, which was the highest level in 25 years. The labor market has grown by about half since 1983.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending plunged by 1 percent in October, even worse than the 0.9 percent decline that had been expected. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.

Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods also plunged last month by the largest amount in two years. Orders for durable goods dropped by 6.2 percent, more than double the decline economists expected. The Commerce Department report showed widespread declines throughout manufacturing led by decreases in autos and airplanes.

The department also reported that new home sales decreased 5.3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 433,000 homes, the lowest level since January 1991, another period when the country was undergoing a steep housing downturn.

The median price of a new home sold in October fell to $218,000, down 7 percent from a year ago, and the lowest since September 2004.

Wall Street appeared ready to give back some of its recent gains as investors reacted to the downbeat economic readings. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 60 points in early trading Wednesday. The stock market is coming off of three sessions of gains, so some giveback, especially with disappointing data, is to be expected.

With the economy showing further signs that it is headed into a steep swoon, the administration and the Federal Reserve rolled out two new programs Tuesday that would provide up to $800 billion in an effort to get more loans flowing in such critical areas as mortgage lending, credit cards, auto loans and small business loans.

Credit markets liked the new efforts, but private economists said the new moves were not likely to be the last changes in the government's vast rescue program, which has already undergone significant alterations since it was passed by Congress on Oct. 3.

Analysts believe more work will need to be done because of their expectations that the economy's vital signs will continue to worsen as the country slips into what many believe could be the worst recession since the early 1980s.

The unemployment rate has hit a 14-year high of 6.5 percent, putting pressure on personal incomes. The government reported Tuesday that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, shrank at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the July-September quarter, reflecting the fact that consumer spending fell at the fastest pace in 28 years.

Nariman Behravesh, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said he was expecting GDP to shrink at a 4 percent rate in the current quarter, reflecting the battering consumers are taking from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. He predicted that the economy would remain in recession through the first half of next year.

"We are in the early stages of one of the worst recessions in the postwar period, even factoring in a massive stimulus program," Behravesh.

To revive the economy, President-elect Barack Obama has said a top priority will be working with Congress to enact a stimulus package with the goal of creating 2.5 million new jobs over the next two years. Analysts believe such an effort will require spending between $500 billion to $700 billion, a figure that would be on top of all the money being spent to stabilize the financial system.

In the latest efforts to stabilize the financial system, the Federal Reserve announced Tuesday that it will buy $200 billion in securities backed by different types of debt including credit card loans, auto loans, student loans and loans to small businesses. That market essentially froze in October. These types of loans as a result have become harder to obtain and have carried higher interest rates

The Fed also announced that it will spend $500 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and another $100 billion to directly purchase mortgages held by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks.

This would greatly expand an initial modest effort announced in September with the goal of creating increased demand for mortgage-related assets. The hope is that this will drive down the price of mortgages and make home loans more available.

Analysts predict the Fed program could send mortgage rates down by as much as one-half to a full percentage point in coming months, helping to spur demand in the beleaguered housing market, which is suffering its worst downturn in decades.

The latest federal moves raised U.S. commitments to contain the financial crisis to nearly $7 trillion -- though no one thinks the government will actually spend anything like that figure.

In the case of the Federal Reserve, the amount covers huge loans that financial institutions will have to pay back. In the case of the Treasury rescue effort, the government will at some point sell the stock it owns back to the banks, presumably when the banking system is doing better and the stock will be worth more.

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Shares of Borders Group Inc. plunged Friday after its top competitor reported disappointing third-quarter results, setting a dark stage for Borders to report its results next week.

Shares of Borders fell 26 cents, or 19 percent, to $1.11 Friday. Earlier in trading shares reached 72 cents, their lowest point ever.

Booksellers have been struggling more recently as consumers limit their spending on discretionary items such as books and music. They also face increased competition from discounters such as Wal-Mart and Target and online sellers such as Amazon.com.

Although Borders has been in a turnaround, it has been unable to find a buyer for the bulk of its business.

And its larger competitor Barnes & Noble reported a larger-than-anticipated loss Thursday, which doesn't bode well for Ann Arbor, Mich.-based Borders. The company is expected to report its third-quarter results Tuesday after the market closes.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Borders to post a loss of 50 cents per share, on average, on revenue of $726.5 million. That compares with a loss of $161.1 million, or $2.74 per share, on revenue of $813.6 million in the year-ago quarter. The loss from continuing operations was 66 cents per share.

Standard & Poor's Equity Research reiterated its "Hold" recommendation on Borders but widened its per-share loss estimated to 60 cents from 45 cents, based on drops in traffic and increased promotion activity that could hurt margins.

S&P analyst Michael Souers said the trend is likely to continue and lowered his profit estimates for fiscal 2009 and 2010 and cut his target price to $1 from $7.

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